March 19, 2021
General Tso's Chicken
Timothy Birdnow
I had a couple of great comments from friends over my post Chinese Takeout. I pointed out in that post that China is struggling to feed her people and that the Chinese economy - far from being the next big thing - is in peril from the same contradictions that swallowed the Soviet Union.
Chester McAteer points out:
China is a zombie Economy, blow away the smoke and crack the mirrors... The real Economy is weak, based on monetary manipulation that is in itself fragile.
Steven Schueler adds:
The HongKong freedom fighters knew this well and were asking every day for the EU and US to impose more sanctions on China which many of them believed on the verge of collapse. If the Yalu River dam fails, which looks possible, that collapse alone is thought to be enough to take down the government and economy. The fallout from years of one child policy is also wreaking havoc on the economy. On the positive side, however, the belt and road policy seems to be paying off and helping support the government and economy as China effectively usurps other governments globally.
Tim adds:
Indeed that is so. The average Chinese worker makes 5,000 Yuan a month (there are 6.51 Yuan to the dollar) so the pay is paltry. And as China’s Premier Li Keqiang noted, there are 600, million people in China living under a thousand Yuan a month.
And if China wants to remain at current employment levels it must create no fewer than 15 MILLION jobs every year. That is a daunting task, and much harder in a command economy than in a truly free market.
Most of the jobs China has been able to create have been lower paid. This leads to dissatisfaction among the working class.
China's in a trap. They have to have more jobs and more food to feed the workers, but at the same time they want to build a big military and that sucks money out of the economy. It's not such an issue in a market-based economy like the U.S. but it's huge in a place like China where the government pretty much runs the market.
I stick by my assertion that China is not the coming world power. BUT it could well be strong enough to throw the world into war.
Steven Schueler adds:
Millennia of piss poor farming techniques have destroyed much of the crop land, including paddies the rice from which was and remains the staple for most Chinese. Sweet potatos are called 'big rice' and hated as they were about all that was available to eat during famines that wiped out the rice crop. Noodles are becoming more important in the diet but the patchwork of small farms is not suited for large scale wheat growing, and it was rare seeing corn grown. The problem with growing sufficient food for the population is persistent and has no easy or inexpensive solution, and if the small farms are consolidated, the displaced population becomes an even larger problem. Much of the rural population is unsuited for anything except laborer jobs. In the industrial south there are rumblings of dissatisfaction
One of the few issues I think Trump should have pushed harder.
Tim adds:
Well said Steven Schueler. I didn't know about China's agricultural problems but am not surprised. Yes, Trump should have pushed a lot harder on that. It would have solved his problem with North Korea too. The Norks are very sensitive to what is happening with China, as they use the Chinese as an umbrella. If China were not there to protect them they'd have to be a lot more diplomatic.
Steven replies:
I've been reading occasionally about Chinese issues with salination in their cropland for 20 years plus, and some of the largely ineffective steps they've taken to reduce the issue. The Yalu basin is hugely affected. https://
I had a couple of great comments from friends over my post Chinese Takeout. I pointed out in that post that China is struggling to feed her people and that the Chinese economy - far from being the next big thing - is in peril from the same contradictions that swallowed the Soviet Union.
Chester McAteer points out:
China is a zombie Economy, blow away the smoke and crack the mirrors... The real Economy is weak, based on monetary manipulation that is in itself fragile.
Steven Schueler adds:
The HongKong freedom fighters knew this well and were asking every day for the EU and US to impose more sanctions on China which many of them believed on the verge of collapse. If the Yalu River dam fails, which looks possible, that collapse alone is thought to be enough to take down the government and economy. The fallout from years of one child policy is also wreaking havoc on the economy. On the positive side, however, the belt and road policy seems to be paying off and helping support the government and economy as China effectively usurps other governments globally.
Tim adds:
Indeed that is so. The average Chinese worker makes 5,000 Yuan a month (there are 6.51 Yuan to the dollar) so the pay is paltry. And as China’s Premier Li Keqiang noted, there are 600, million people in China living under a thousand Yuan a month.
And if China wants to remain at current employment levels it must create no fewer than 15 MILLION jobs every year. That is a daunting task, and much harder in a command economy than in a truly free market.
Most of the jobs China has been able to create have been lower paid. This leads to dissatisfaction among the working class.
China's in a trap. They have to have more jobs and more food to feed the workers, but at the same time they want to build a big military and that sucks money out of the economy. It's not such an issue in a market-based economy like the U.S. but it's huge in a place like China where the government pretty much runs the market.
I stick by my assertion that China is not the coming world power. BUT it could well be strong enough to throw the world into war.
Steven Schueler adds:
Millennia of piss poor farming techniques have destroyed much of the crop land, including paddies the rice from which was and remains the staple for most Chinese. Sweet potatos are called 'big rice' and hated as they were about all that was available to eat during famines that wiped out the rice crop. Noodles are becoming more important in the diet but the patchwork of small farms is not suited for large scale wheat growing, and it was rare seeing corn grown. The problem with growing sufficient food for the population is persistent and has no easy or inexpensive solution, and if the small farms are consolidated, the displaced population becomes an even larger problem. Much of the rural population is unsuited for anything except laborer jobs. In the industrial south there are rumblings of dissatisfaction
One of the few issues I think Trump should have pushed harder.
Tim adds:
Well said Steven Schueler. I didn't know about China's agricultural problems but am not surprised. Yes, Trump should have pushed a lot harder on that. It would have solved his problem with North Korea too. The Norks are very sensitive to what is happening with China, as they use the Chinese as an umbrella. If China were not there to protect them they'd have to be a lot more diplomatic.
Steven replies:
I've been reading occasionally about Chinese issues with salination in their cropland for 20 years plus, and some of the largely ineffective steps they've taken to reduce the issue. The Yalu basin is hugely affected. https://
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
07:53 AM
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