March 17, 2021
Chinese Takeout
Timothy Birdnow
I suspected this time would come.
Watch Out! China Cannot Feed Itself
I've always believed China was a paper tiger, largely because it has too many people and a system that really doesn't work for the average person. Oh, the Chinese have mega-corporations and make lots of money for the ruling Communists, but it is poor at producing the things the populace need or want. In the end such a system cannot survive. Eventually a crisis point will be reached and it will fall. I suspect that will be food. Of course, America and the West have been propping China up for decades now and building our own competitor.
I remember when Madelaine Albright said it was not good that America was the world's lone superpower; she was echoing the sentiments of the Ruling Class, which seeks world governemnt. The idea of America as the leader of the free world is distasteful to them, because they think we are irredeemable as founded, based on a free society with private enterprise. So they set out to make China the new USSR as a "counterweight" to American "hegemony".
But in the end China will meet the same fate as the Soviets, and for the same reason. Yes, they do have SOME quasi-private businesses (like the Nazis did) but in the end the State is the ones who run the show. That cannot be long-term sustainable.
So, China will have to reach out. Out into greater Asia for food, for energy, for minerals. And they are nosing around Canada as well. Oh, btw, the Chinese just built some ice breakers, meaning they plan on being quite active in the Arctic. That means they are going to challenge both the U.S. and the Russians.
This could lead to war at some point. The more time goes by the more the Book of Revelations looks like a history textbook.
I suspected this time would come.
Watch Out! China Cannot Feed Itself
I've always believed China was a paper tiger, largely because it has too many people and a system that really doesn't work for the average person. Oh, the Chinese have mega-corporations and make lots of money for the ruling Communists, but it is poor at producing the things the populace need or want. In the end such a system cannot survive. Eventually a crisis point will be reached and it will fall. I suspect that will be food. Of course, America and the West have been propping China up for decades now and building our own competitor.
I remember when Madelaine Albright said it was not good that America was the world's lone superpower; she was echoing the sentiments of the Ruling Class, which seeks world governemnt. The idea of America as the leader of the free world is distasteful to them, because they think we are irredeemable as founded, based on a free society with private enterprise. So they set out to make China the new USSR as a "counterweight" to American "hegemony".
But in the end China will meet the same fate as the Soviets, and for the same reason. Yes, they do have SOME quasi-private businesses (like the Nazis did) but in the end the State is the ones who run the show. That cannot be long-term sustainable.
So, China will have to reach out. Out into greater Asia for food, for energy, for minerals. And they are nosing around Canada as well. Oh, btw, the Chinese just built some ice breakers, meaning they plan on being quite active in the Arctic. That means they are going to challenge both the U.S. and the Russians.
This could lead to war at some point. The more time goes by the more the Book of Revelations looks like a history textbook.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:24 AM
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1
You mean, they can't eat iPhones, and warships? Who knew?
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 17, 2021 04:00 PM (aL7f6)
2
Who knew indeed Dana!
You know, the Japanese were able to industrialize by first reforming their agricultural sector; once they had the means to feed a large population well they then proceeded to develop industries, then a military capability. Most Third World nations skip all that and go for the military first. China did an interim; skipping the agriculture but going for industry and relying on food from overseas. They seem to be facing a crisis with that decision now.
I think it was entirely predictable, but they assumed their cheap labor and command economy would give them a leg up. It did - for a while. But as I said, it's not long-term sustainable.
One wonders how long the Japanese economy would have bloomed had not WWII destroyed it and they rebuilt?
You know, the Japanese were able to industrialize by first reforming their agricultural sector; once they had the means to feed a large population well they then proceeded to develop industries, then a military capability. Most Third World nations skip all that and go for the military first. China did an interim; skipping the agriculture but going for industry and relying on food from overseas. They seem to be facing a crisis with that decision now.
I think it was entirely predictable, but they assumed their cheap labor and command economy would give them a leg up. It did - for a while. But as I said, it's not long-term sustainable.
One wonders how long the Japanese economy would have bloomed had not WWII destroyed it and they rebuilt?
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 18, 2021 08:24 AM (H1ky5)
3
That's a good question about the Japanese economy. We helped them rebuild it, of course. They were making cheap tin toys for American kids until J. Edwards Deming from Bell Labs, the genius inventor of Statistical Quality Control, went over there and taught them those techniques and said "You should be building automobiles." They listened to him. He taught the same techniques to America's Big Three, who said "We can't afford to do it that way." (They may have had a partial point because of the unions' stranglehold.) Deming said "You can't afford NOT to do it that way." Eventually the Big Three became Toyota, Nissan and Honda. I think it was President Reagan that got them to build plants here to make them. And the unions have never been able to make any headway with them.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 18, 2021 10:18 AM (aL7f6)
4
Excellent point Dana! I remember that whole story. Yes, it was Deming who taught them how to do that - and we ignored it and suffered for our obtuseness.
Had Japan run on the pre-war model I suspect they would have eventually wound up with an aging economy that would have gone into the dolrums.
And Japan would be doing great today if they hadn't adopted Western Keynsian economic thinking back in the '90's and gotten what every country that does that gets.
Had Japan run on the pre-war model I suspect they would have eventually wound up with an aging economy that would have gone into the dolrums.
And Japan would be doing great today if they hadn't adopted Western Keynsian economic thinking back in the '90's and gotten what every country that does that gets.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 19, 2021 07:06 AM (U7nOT)
5
There's a portrait of Deming hanging in Toyota's corporate headquarters, or was. I suspect it's still there. And the Japanese award the Deming Award for Excellence in Manufacturing Quality. Last I knew, only one American company has won it: Hewlett-Packard, for their programmable calculators a whole bunch of years ago.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 19, 2021 09:07 AM (aL7f6)
6
In my best Johnnie Carson voice "I did not know that!" The Japanese sadly walked away from Deming in recent years, which is why they had their "lost decade" which is now a lost generation.
What fools we mortals be!
What fools we mortals be!
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 20, 2021 07:35 AM (BCtB0)
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