May 31, 2020

The Killer Covid Closure

Timothy Birdnow

And we have not yet begun to see the economic effects of this. There will be a wave of bankruptcies mid summer as the businesses that were shut down fail to dig out of the hole they are in. Whole countries will go bankrupt. So too may several states (like California or Illinois.) This is just the beginning.

The Covid 19 Shutdown Will Cost Americans Millions of Years of Life

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 05:10 PM | Comments (18) | Add Comment
Post contains 76 words, total size 1 kb.

The Problem We are Trying to Fix does not Exist in the Form People Think

Tim McNabb

Some of you may know, but I am a security officer under contract to the Federal Government. I protect the people who work on and come to Federal property in and around St. Louis.

Last night, a guard doing the exact same job I do was murdered in a drive-by, and his colleague was hurt.

I fully support peaceful protests, but those of you who are justifying the lawlessness for reasons such as "well, kneeling during the national anthem didn't help" are making a terrible mistake.

First Heather McDonald has done some extensive research and wrote both articles and books pointing out that law enforcement engages with various demographic groups pretty much in proportion to their criminal activity. Doing my own research, I find this to be the case.

Therefore, we are trying to solve a problem that does not exist - systemic bias just isn't there in the data that I am seeing.

The result then is that we will NEVER "solve" this problem unless you want to stop fighting crime, because the problem we are trying to fix does not exist in the form people think it is.

Veterans are 1.4 times as likely to get hurt or killed by the cops, but nobody thinks that Vets are being singled out. It's probably because we are combative assholes.

From what I can tell, there is no statistical evidence that anyone is being picked on by cops that cannot be explained by criminal conduct.

Now, how to help communities break these cycles is a great place to focus our attention.

Federal Officer Killed Guarding Courthouse Near Protest

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 04:47 PM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
Post contains 285 words, total size 2 kb.

Wind Power Canceled: Germany in Economic Trouble

This from Sherri Lange

Germany has fallen.
Just in case anyone is wondering:
- Germany has invested heavily in Industrial wind turbines. All of those contracts will be canceled
- German banks are on the verge of collapse due to investment in Green energy
- German "loans" to other countries in EU will not be paid back.

Germany's Push for Wind Power Encounters Resistance

See also Germany is on the verge of Economic Collapse 2020

According to the economists, the German economy is collapsing and the current instability could lead to the eurorozone collapse.

The GDP has contracted and this has raised a concern among many economists because the country might be headed to an economic disaster. The fate of the German automobile industry remains unknown and if the trend continues, the whole auto industry will be crippled to an extent where it will be impossible to reverse the situation.
The demographic changes in Germany might deny the country a significant amount of manpower and this will just add more problems to the economy. We have too many immigrants who are using a lot of resources without any input to the economy. The country also has a large number of elderly people compared to the young energetic segment of the population who can provide labor to the economy.

Right now the European union has a lot of challenges especially after the exit of Britain from the union and this is threatening the German manufacturing sector whose main market is the members of the European union. There have been many economic challenges and low interest rates introduced by the European central banks have not solved the financial problems. The UK was a very key pillar in the EU and their exit has raised the anti-European union sentiment and this raises the risk that more members will withdraw themselves and this can crumble the EU where Germany has a very big market. This is a big threat to the stability of the German economy and as per now many companies have a pessimistic outlook on the economy. This raises the chances of a economic collapse for the first time since 2013 because we have more indicators suggesting that there might be an economic meltdown in Germany.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 04:31 PM | Comments (16) | Add Comment
Post contains 381 words, total size 3 kb.

Norway Lockdown Not Needed

Timothy Birdnow

Well, well, well...

Norway is now admitting the lockdown was a bad idea:

Norway Health Chief: Lockdown was not Needed to Tame COVID

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 04:00 PM | Comments (12) | Add Comment
Post contains 29 words, total size 1 kb.

Cop Attacked in L.A.

Timothy Birdnow

Who could have seen coming? Anyone?

Violent Mob Attacks Police Officer in Los Angeles

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 02:53 PM | Comments (15) | Add Comment
Post contains 20 words, total size 1 kb.

Minnesota Governor FINALLY Calls Out National Guard

Timothy Birdnow

Isn't it interesting that they have let this thing grow out of hand right after Biden dined on his loafers, saying if you don't vote for him you aren't authentically black. Major racial mistake now covered by race rioiting. If the Governor had acted immediately this would have not burned so hot.

Minnesota Governor authorizes 'full mobilization' of state's National Guard, says protests no longer about death of George Floyd

MinnesotaGov. Tim Walz announcedSaturday he has authorized "full mobilization" of the state's National Guard - something that has neverbeen done in the 164-year history of the Minnesota National Guard.

Walz, who has been hammered by residents, critics and the press for his response to the crisis in his state, pushed back on the idea that the protests, which have turned increasingly violent, now have anything to do with George Floyd, an unarmed black man in Minneapolis killed while in police custody.

"The tactics and the approachthat we have taken have evolved and need to evolvethe same way, with a sensitivityto the legitimaterage and anger that came after what the world witnessed in the murder of George Floyd and was manifested in a very healthy gathering of community to memorialize that Tuesday night, which was still present to a certain degree on Wednesday," he said, adding, "By Thursday it was nearly gone and last night is a mockery of pretending this is about George Floyd's death or inequities or historical traumas to our communities of color."

The man is a fool; this was NEVER about George Floyd. It was revolution to some, robbery to others. I think he knew that.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 02:44 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 278 words, total size 2 kb.

Trump to Declare Antifa a Terrorist Organization

Anthony Watts forwards this:

Hopefully now they'll have the will to arrest Soros.

Antifa to be Designated as a Terrorist Organization, Trump Says

Trump tweeted on Sunday:

The United States of America will be designating ANTIFA as a Terrorist Organization.

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 31, 2020

A word from Tim:

Soros spent $33 million to gin up the Ferguson riots. Ferguson was a beautiful city with stately Victorian homes, a kind of college town as it was close to the University of Missouri St. Louis. It was up and coming, being renovated. That is over now thanks to the riots and the media's insistent portrayal of Ferguson as an impoverished hellhole (it wasn't even close). Soros did that. He ought to have to give restitution to the city and her residents.

I was there; I saw the rioters first hand. Most were from outside of the area, clearly bused in to cause trouble. It was an act of terrorism. Of course, the mayor of Ferguson, the STL County Executive, and the Governor were all Democrats and refused to take any action.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 02:34 PM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 190 words, total size 2 kb.

Cop who killed George Floyd knew, worked with him

Dana Mathewson

They both worked security for the same restaurant for a long time. The former owner of the restaurant says she can't be certain they were actually acquainted with each other.

I'd also hazard a guess that the cop has long-term anger management issues.

A white Minneapolis police officer and the black man he's charged with killing both worked as security guards at the same Latin nightclub as recently as last year, but its former owner says she's not sure if they knew each other.

What she is certain of is how aggressive Officer Derek Chauvin became when the club hosted events that drew a mainly black clientele, responding to fights by taking out his mace and spraying the crowd, a tactic she told him was unjustified "overkill."

"He would mace everyone instead of apprehending the people who were fighting," said Maya Santamaria, former owner of El Nuevo Rodeo club in Minneapolis. "He would call backup. The next thing you would know, there would five or six squad cars."

Chauvin became the focus of outrage and four days of street protests across the nation this week after he was seen on cellphone video kneeling on the neck of George Floyd for more than eight minutes during his arrest on suspicion of passing a counterfeit bill. Floyd died in custody and Chauvin was fired Tuesday and arrested Friday on charges of third-degree murder and manslaughter. The three other officers who took part in the arrest were also fired, and they remain under investigation.

While Chauvin's off-duty job at the El Nuevo Rodeo club stretched over 17 years until a few months ago, Floyd only started working there recently as a bouncer and only worked about a dozen events put on by "African American promoters."

Santamaria, who sold the venue within the past two months, said she doesn't believe the two men knew each other prior to their fateful encounter Monday night. If Chauvin had recognized Floyd, she said, "he might have given him a little more mercy."

She said Chauvin got along well with the club's Latino regulars, but his tactics toward unruly customers on what she referred to as "African American" nights led her to speak to him about it.

"I told him I thought this is unnecessary to be pepper-sprayed. The knee-jerk reaction of being afraid, it seemed overkill," Santamaria said. "It was a concern and I did voice my opinion, but police officers have a way of justifying what they do." [emphasis added]

I said something about "anger management issues." Perhaps it wasn't that; perhaps he exhibited a lack of bravery. At any rate, some people should be cops and some shouldn't. I believe Chauvin falls into the latter category. Let me know what you think.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:01 AM | Comments (12) | Add Comment
Post contains 474 words, total size 4 kb.

May 30, 2020

George Floyd did not Die of Strangulation or Suffocation

Timothy Birdnow

Preliminary findings from the medical examiner in the George Floyd murder investigation do not show that Mr. Floyd was killed by strangulation of suffocation.

From Powerline:

Today we got the first information from Hennepin County’s Medical Examiner, in an attachment to the criminal complaint against officer Derek Chauvin:

The Hennepin County Medical Examiner (ME) conducted Mr. Floyd’s autopsy on May 26, 2020. The full report of the ME is pending but the ME has made the following preliminary findings. The autopsy revealed no physical findings that support a diagnosis of traumatic asphyxia or strangulation. Mr. Floyd had underlying health conditions including coronary artery disease and hypertensive heart disease. The combined effects of Mr. Floyd being restrained by the police, his underlying health conditions and any potential intoxicants in his system likely contributed to his death.

Emphasis added. Further, the complaint’s Statement of Probable Cause recites that Floyd complained of being unable to breathe well before Officer Chauvin put his knee on Floyd’s neck:

While standing outside the car, Mr. Floyd began saying and repeating that he could not breathe.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:33 AM | Comments (6) | Add Comment
Post contains 190 words, total size 2 kb.

Money Talks

Timothy Birdnow

Too much money flows to Democratic lawmakers and Progressive causes from PP. They could set up gas chambers for Jews and the dooors would stay open.

Planned Parenthood can keep it's License Despite Injuring Dozens of Women

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:25 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 41 words, total size 1 kb.

Was the Floyd Murder a Mob Hit?

Timothy Birdnow

Vedddy Eeenterestink!

Former Minneapolis Police Officer Dereck Chauvin Arrested, Charged with Murder in George Floyd's Death: Updates

Floyd and Chauvin knew each other before the fatal encounter - they worked together at a bar, a city official and a bar owner said.

"Minneapolis City Council Vice President Andrea Jenkins told CNN and MSNBC that Floyd and Chauvin were long-time co-workers who worked security at the same bar, El Nuevo Rodeo."


The killer cop and the murdered victim knew each-other from outside of their, uh, "professional" relationship. The plot thickens!

St. Paul was once the center of organized crime. There was never any mob violence there because the gangsters didn't defecate where they ate. But Minneapolis was another matter.

Was this a mob hit?

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:45 AM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
Post contains 133 words, total size 1 kb.

Hillary and Followers Pose a Greater Danger to Black People than the Klan, Van Jones Says

Timothy Birdnow

A stopped clock is right twice a day, the saying goes. Van Jones may be a communist idiot but he's right in that regard. The self-satisfied white liberal is the enemy of all Mankind!

Van Jones: A "White Liberal Hillary Clinton Supporter" Poses a Greater Threat to Black Americans than the KKK

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:40 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 70 words, total size 1 kb.

Shoot the White Folks!

Selwyn Duke

In reality, police are more likely to kill white than black suspects, studies show.

Minneapolis Burning: Rioters Shout "Shoot the White Folks"

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:06 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 28 words, total size 1 kb.

Who Was That Masked Man?

Timothy Birdnow

Jacob Frey, feckless fool of a Mayor in Minneapolis, is issuing MASKS to rioters This after saying it was unacceptable for Churches to reopen because of the dangers of the Kung Flu.

From the Fox article:

The comments Frey made came Monday on "CNN Newsroom" as the mayor discussed Gov. Tim Walz's plan to allow the limited reopening of churches amid the coronavirus pandemic with host John King. Frey alluded to King that he may flout the governor's guidance -- which would allow churches to operate at 25 percent capacity with no more than 250 people whether indoors or outdoors -- because he said it may put the people of his city in danger.

"I support our governor, I think he's doing a tremendous job and he's looking out for the entire state of Minnesota, whereas I'm looking out for the unique characteristics associated with the city of Minneapolis," Frey said. "Moving up to 25 percent capacity and up to 250 people in places of worship isa recipe in Minneapolis for a public health disaster."

He continued: "That is not the route that we can or should be going on right now. We are considering some form of an emergency regulation ourselves to prevent that number of people gathering in one place."

The Monday comments from Frey underscore how quickly things have changed in Minneapolis.Instead of worrying about keeping worshipers out of their churches or mosques or synagogues, Minneapolis has been unable keep looters out of its stores or its buildings from being burned. Police in riot gear have had debris hurled at them and rioters even took over and burned a police precinct.

Frey, in a plea for peace Thursday night, noted that his government was giving face masks to rioters in an effort to slow coronavirus spread.

"The City encourages everyone to exercise caution to stay safe while participating in demonstrations, including wearing masks and physical distancing as much as possible to prevent the spread of COVID-19," a press release read."The City has made hundreds of masks available to protesters this week."

Masks for rioters and looters?  Only a Democrat could come up with such a scheme! And only such would allow a police precinct to be taken and burned.

So people have the right to riot but not assemble peaceably?

So now the rioters have a way to hide their identity when they pillage and loot.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 07:59 AM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
Post contains 406 words, total size 3 kb.

Malice in the Palace

Allan MacRae observes:

I calculated deaths/

infections of ~0.5% about one month ago from random Covid-19 tests in Iceland. Close enough. Almost all deaths were the elderly and infirm.

Deaths would have been lower, except many states knowingly exposed their old folks to the virus and killed them off in droves. Attaboys to New York Governor Cuomo and others.

It IS clear that the lockdown of the young, healthy workforce worldwide was a huge, costly, destructive error – completely unnecessary – and I published that conclusion on 21Mar2020.

I said no general lockdown, but double-down on protecting the elderly – and they did the opposite! Imbeciles.

Some people are calling this Covid-19 fiasco a "Plandemic” – a deliberate scam. I’m not so sure.

"Never ascribe to malice what you can blame on the colossal stupidity of politicians and civil servants.”

A word from Tim:

I agree; this wasn't planned. But I think it provided a golden opportunity for many on the Left. And no doubt they had been thinking about doing this in the event of a pandemic in their think tanks and in the salons of the Ruling Class. When it came it offered them a great opportunity to try all this stuff. I would point out when this first started gearing up the media was saying "this may provide an opportunity for the Democrats" which speaks volumes.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 07:47 AM | Comments (7) | Add Comment
Post contains 233 words, total size 2 kb.

May 28, 2020

Confusion and Control and Covid Masks

Joseph Bast makes a brilliant point (one I've been making so I know it's brilliant):

Sometimes it takes a lawyer to see the truth about the Wuhan virus: "In short, cloth masks are largely symbolic. The science hasn’t changed, but the agenda has. Implementing mandatory mask policies across a society of 300 million because it makes some people feel better is absurd on its face. But the policy makes a lot of sense if you understand its purpose and usefulness to shift the American mindset. Mandatory masks are a critical predicate conditioning us to accept abuses of our liberty. Mandatory masking provides the foundation on which governments continue to justify emergency measures and rule by executive fiat, and it creates a national mood of consent that America will accept indefinite government expansion because we face a ‘new normal.’”

Mandatory Masks Aren’t About Safety, They’re About Social Control

From the article:

Masking Is Meant to Build an Opinion Cascade

Mandatory masking seeks to build that consent. In addition to extending the fiction that we are in an emergency sufficient to trigger the extra-constitutional authority of local and state executives, mandatory masking acts as a peer pressure-fueled signal that encourages conformity to our coming "new normal.”

An April 18 articlein the Washington Post underscores the strategy, presenting the mask controversy as a left versus right debate. People resisting mandatory mask policies are, per usual, painted as unreasonable, headstrong, and backward—displaying ignorant American bravado while rejecting science and good sense. (That caricature is itself a tool to mock, marginalize, and silence dissent.)

The most telling passage of the article is this one:

For Trump’s supporters, declining to wear a mask is a visible way to demonstrate "that ‘I’m a Republican,’ or ‘I want businesses to start up again,’ or ‘I support the president,’ ” said Robert Kahn, a law professor at the University of St. Thomas in Minneapolis who has studied Americans’ attitudes toward masks. ‘Masks will quickly become the new normal in blue states, but if social distancing continues through 2022, the mentality among Republicans could well change, too: If I can go to work and the cost of marginal improvement in my life is wearing a mask, maybe Americans of both parties do accommodate ourselves to it.’

And that’s the key. If we want to marginally improve our lives, we will submit. The masks aren’t the endgame. The point of the masks is to teach the American people that if we want to get some sense of normal, we have to accept abnormality.

If everyone is wearing a mask, it telegraphs a society-wide acceptance that the status quo has changed, and with that consensus other changes can come, too. Society will be primed to accept measures that most normal Americans would reject in any other time. Our new normal will include a permanent expansion of the bureaucracy and alarming new COVID-related regulations.

A slova from Tim:

A cult always gets recruits to do symbolic things and wear symbolic clothes. Talismans are common. This resembles cult-like behavior in so very many ways. It's clearly a sacrament to get people to accept the saddle on the back.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:10 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 529 words, total size 4 kb.

It's a Brave New World After the Churches Reopen

Timothy Birdnow

Joe Bastardi made the following observation:

A matter of time before the state takes the place of God. Many dont agree with me but the slippery slope has begun, By now people can decide whether they should partake of services, And people are old enough and devout enough to decide how to behave in church. But now the state is showing its capable of taking it out of their hands. I can see suggesting, but banning itlike this? No one should force their will on other people. And especially in matters of faith.

Maryland County Bans Eucharist in Church Reopening Order

I replied:

Liberalism and the attending political movements essentially reject God and especially the God of the Bible. Government is their god these days. So many Americans, either agnostic or deist, agree. Government can make things happen in this world. The liberals think religion is just pie in the sky wish fulfillment. Their existence is entirly rooted in the corporal world. So government is god and to prove it they have to do things to establish the submission of the churches. Anyone remember the Terri Schiavo case? Schiavo was had a brain injury and her husband wanted to pull the plug - despite her parents' bitter opposition. The liberals all jumped on this, demanding she be euthenized.They wanted that to prove their godhead. I wrote about it then. So now we have them trying to violate the First Amendment. And so many people are onboard with this! It is illogical anyway; people have been purchasing carry-out food through the entire pandemic. Why would Holy Communion be any different? Because there are different purposes for banning Communion then for food.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:51 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 291 words, total size 2 kb.

WI SCOTUS Won't Rule on Constitutionality of 'Stay at Home' Order

This from Joseph Bast:

Too bad, the WI Supreme Court could have ruled the shutdown was unconstitutional on civil libertarian grounds, not just procedural. Still, 90% of WI is totally free of Wuhan virus restrictions.Wisconsin Supreme Court Dismisses Second 'Safer and Home' Lawsuit

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:37 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
Post contains 54 words, total size 1 kb.

Police Mayhem in Minneapolis

Timothy Birdnow

Is this racism or police brutality? Remember, it was in Minneapolis that a Sudanese immigrant cop murdered an Australian woman named Justine Damond, shooting her with no provocation. The officer - Muhammad Noor - was black and she white.  Minneapolis has been run by Democrats for a long time.

Video of Fatal Arrest Shows Minneapolis Officer Kneeling on George Floyd's Neck for Several Minutes

While this looks like the cop was trying to hurt the man (he may have been trying to put him out in a "sleeper" move though) I am reluctant to pass judgment until all the facts are in. But if it is the way it appears the wrath of the Lord needs to come down.

But we've rushed to judgment before on these types of issues, even involving videos, only to later learn there was a key element missing.

I don't know yet. But I can at least say Minneapolis has a problem with their police department.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:30 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 167 words, total size 1 kb.

No, Sweden isn't doing so bad

Timothy Birdnow

On Facebook a commenter pointed out that Sweden is doing just fine without a lockdown. Another fellow decided to argue, using one recent study which claims only 5% of Sweden showed antibodies for Wuhan. I had to address this. While the details of the study were not available (I found them, but in Swedish so they were no help) I did find quite a bit to suggest this is either unimportant or wrong.

First, the response from the commenter:

Julian Vazquezwhere are you seeing Sweden’s experiment worked ?? They have one of the highest death rate per capita now and only 7% with antibodies in Stockholm. Read this article it just came out.

https:// 2020/05/27/ other_sports/ 1590601235_13708 8.amp.html

I replied:

Sweden has a large resident alien population, and a lot of clustering Middle Eastern people. It's no surprise that they have a higher infection and death rate than OTHER SCANDANAVIAN COUNTRIES but not other European countries. Sweden also has a very elderly population -
And half of all the deaths in Sweden have occurred in nursing homes. A national lockdown would not have stopped that (these people were ALREADY locked down.) And Sweden has one of the oldest populations in Europe with 20% being elderly. (Sweden's situation mirrored Italy, which also has an elderly population, a large immigrant community, and most deaths happened in nursing homes.)

Also, Sweden is always compared to other Scandinavian countries, but not the rest of Europe or the world. That distorts the impact; Sweden is NOT Norway, or Finland. When compared to Germany, or the U.K. they aren't doing bad. Germany and Britain locked down. IF the lockdown had real value then Sweden would be WAY above any of them.

It's interesting since in April Sweden's chief epidemiologist said 20% of the population had immunity now this study - and we aren't given the methodology or any information on who did the study or how it was conducted - now says it's just 7%. Pardon me if I don't find that the most credible piece of evidence. 

I will address your attention to this May 25 article in the notoriously liberal NPR.

In it they quote said epidemiologist as saying:

"Unfortunately, Stockholm will not reach this milestone in May.

"No that will not happen," Tegnell said Monday in an email to NPR. "Current investigations show different numbers, but [Stockholm's immunity rate] is likely lower [than 30%]. As you might be aware, there is a problem with measuring immunity for this virus."

So how was this "less than 5% arrived at?

By the time the data was compiled it was hopelessly out of date. Few people are given the antibody tests, I might add, and you are going to have very few of them administered in the Islamic community in Sweden. And it is just a preliminary conclusion of an ongoing study. 

Judith Curry wrote about the possible reaching of herd immunity a short time bacik.

She said:

"The ‘herd immunity threshold’ (HIT) can be estimated from the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, R0– a measure of how many people, on average, each infected individual infects. Standard simple compartmental models of epidemic growth imply that the HIT equals {1 – 1/R0}. Once the HIT is passed, the rate of new infections starts to decline, which should ensure that health systems will not thereafter be overwhelmed and makes it more practicable to take steps to eliminate the disease.

However, the Ferguson20 report estimated that relying on herd immunity would result in 81% of the UK and US populations becoming infected during the epidemic, mainly over a two-month period, based on an R0 estimate of 2.4. These figures imply that the HIT is between 50% and 60%.[2]Their report implied that health systems would be overwhelmed, resulting in far more deaths. It claimed that only draconian government interventions could prevent this occurring. Such interventions were rapidly implemented in the UK, in most states of the US, and in various other countries, via highly disruptive and restrictive enforced ‘lockdowns’.

A notable exception was Sweden, which has continued to pursue a herd immunity-based strategy, relying on relatively modest social distancing policies. The Imperial College team estimated that, after those policies were introduced in mid-March, R0 in Sweden was 2.5, with only a 2.5% probability that it was under 1.5.[3] The rapid spread of COVID-19 in the country in the second half of March suggests that R0 is unlikely to have been significantly under 2.0.[4]

Very sensibly, the Swedish public health authority has surveyed the prevalence of infections by the SARS-COV-2 virus in Stockholm County, the earliest in Sweden hit by COVID-19. They thereby estimated that 17% of the population would have been infected by 11 April, rising to 25% by 1 May 2020.[5] Yet recorded new cases had stopped increasing by 11 April (Figure 1), as had net hospital admissions,[6]and both measures have fallen significantly since. That pattern indicates that the HIT had been reached by 11April, at which point only 17% of the population appear to have been infected.

How can it be true that the HIT has been reached in Stockholm County with only about 17% of the population having been infected, while an R0 of 2.0 is normally taken to imply a HIT of 50%?

A recent paper (Gomes et al.[7]) provides the answer. It shows that variation between individuals in their susceptibility to infection and their propensity to infect others can cause the HIT to be much lower than it is in a homogeneous population. Standard simple compartmental epidemic models take no account of such variability. And the model used in the Ferguson20 study, while much more complex, appears only to take into account inhomogeneity arising from a very limited set of factors – notably geographic separation from other individuals and household size – with only a modest resulting impact on the growth of the epidemic.[8]Using a compartmental model modified to take such variability into account, with co-variability between susceptibility and infectivity arguably handled in a more realistic way than by Gomes et al., I confirm their finding that the HIT is indeed reached at a much lower level than when the population is homogeneous. That would explain why the HIT appears to have been passed in Stockholm by mid April. The same seems likely to be the case in other major cities and regions that have been badly affected by COVID-19. "


End excerpt.

So herd immunity can be reached at much lower levels than the standard-given sixty percent. 

Please note too that Sweden's death rate is below that of the U.S., Britain, Germany, Italy, Spain, Brazil, Mexico, the Netherlands, Belgium, Canada, and a bunch of other countries that DID lock down.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:07 AM | Comments (21) | Add Comment
Post contains 1127 words, total size 9 kb.

<< Page 1 of 10 >>
186kb generated in CPU 0.0399, elapsed 0.5968 seconds.
53 queries taking 0.5693 seconds, 351 records returned.
Powered by Minx 1.1.6c-pink.
Always on Watch
The American Thinker
Bird`s Articles
Old Birdblog
Birdblog`s Literary Corner
Behind the Black Borngino Report
Canada Free Press
Common Sense and Wonder < br/ > Christian Daily Reporter
Citizens Free Press
Daren Jonescu
Dana and Martha Music On my Mind Conservative Victory
Gelbspan Files Infidel Bloggers Alliance
Let the Truth be Told
>Numbers Watch
The Reform Club
FTP Student Action
Veritas PAC
The Galileo Movement
Intellectual Conservative
br /> Liberty Unboound
One Jerusalem
Publius Forum
Ready Rants
The Gateway Pundit
The Jeffersonian Ideal
Thinking Democrat
Ultima Thule
Young Craig Music
Contact Tim at

Monthly Traffic

  • Pages: 82639
  • Files: 13097
  • Bytes: 4.0G
  • CPU Time: 283:02
  • Queries: 2999350


  • Posts: 28625
  • Comments: 126630


RSS 2.0 Atom 1.0