December 31, 2020

Volcanic CO2 Explains it All

Timothy Birdnow

Geological activity can account for all global warming.

Discovery of Massive Volcanic CO2 Emissions Rebuts Human-Caused Global Warming Theory; Geological Heat Flow is Possibly the Root Cause of Changes to Our Oceans

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Top 20 for Covid

Timothy Birdnow

Here are the top 20 Covid countries. Notice Sweden, which relied on establishing herd immunity and did not shut down, is not on the list:

https://scontent-dfw5-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/fr/cp0/e15/q65/133863009_10158532225847247_6853566682941571241_n.jpg?_nc_cat=105&ccb=2&_nc_sid=8024bb&efg=eyJpIjoiYiJ9&_nc_ohc=lLxjujHiiK0AX_vXQy9&tn=o0kPyc3KNu1VWk0l&_nc_ht=scontent-dfw5-1.xx&tp=14&oh=322be5f8481ca47ee2e5bb04d934008e&oe=6012D99C

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Call to Murder Anti-Maskers

Timothy Birdnow

This is what America is facing. The modern Left is insane and full of rage - and if they win they will actually do these sorts of things.

Remember talk of Nuremberg trials for "climate change deniers"? Or the college professor who called for executions of the same? Remember the threats against Trump supporters? These people are going over the edge.

Image may contain: 1 person, text that says 'Kurt 'Masks Save Lives' Eichen... @kurteichenwald It's at a moment like this I want to find an antimasker and beat them to death. Since they believe they have the right to kill others, they have surrendered any right to object. #Categoricallmperative 11:06 PM 30 Dec20 Twitter for iPad'

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Gates' Plan to Dim the Sun

Timothy Birdnow

Something is dim but it's not the sun. I think Gates has lost his mind.

Bill Gates Plan to Dim the Sun Moves Forward

From the article:

Bill Gates, among others, is backing the Harvard Stratospheric Controlled Perturbation Experiment. The SCoPEx is researching a form of "geoengineering" to prevent global warming. In this case, they're exploring the idea of spraying tiny particles into the air to reflect sunlight and make the earth cooler. Towards that end, Harvard scientists are planning to fly a balloon full of equipment 12 miles above Sweden next year to gather data.

This from the guy who gave us Windows Vista and crashed everyone's computer with Windows 10 updates.



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Georeactors and Antineutrinos

Richard Cronin

The National Geospatial-Inte lligence Agency (NGA) is a combat support agency under the U.S. Dept. of Defense and a member of the U.S. Intelligence Community, with the primary mission of collecting, analyzing, and distributing geospatial intelligence (GEOINT) in support of national security.

(Aside - With Christopher Miller and Ezra Cohen-Watnick running DOD, I think the NGA is helping the good guys. Involvement in satellite monitoring, perhaps even targeting of Directed Energy Weapons ? Almost certainly.)

The NGA and U.S. Energy Dept. provided funding for the Antineutrino Global Mapping 2015 (AGM15). This effort is intended to enhance our ability to identify clandestine fission breeder reactors which could produce weapons grade Plutonium.

Antineutrinos are produced from nuclear fission and Inverse Beta Decay (IBD), a form of radioactive decay. Antineutrinos from nuclear fission range in energy from 3 to 10 MeV. Antineutrinos produced from decay have an energy level below fission.

Antineutrinos coming from within the planet are also called geoneutrinos. The geoneutrino background must be screened out in order to isolate antineutrinos coming from known nuclear reactors around the globe. These measurements can also provide insights to the existence of Dr. Herndon’s proposed GeoReactor, especially if a number of detectors were spaced out around the globe to get directionality, indicating the source as the center of the planet.

Quoting from  paper:

"Electron antineutrino measurements have allowed for the direct assessment of 7-29TW power from U and Th along with constraining a geo-reactor < 3.7 TW at the 95% confidence level.”

In 2016, researchers at Borexino (Gran Sasso, Italy) published that their geoneutrino observations provided an power output from the GeoReactor at 4.2 TW at a 95 % Confidence level.

In 2001, Herndon and Hollenbach published that the GeoReactor power output ranged from 3 to 5 TW. The observations of AGM15 and Borexino fit nicely in that range.

On Monday morning, March 21, 2016, I placed a call to Dr. Stephen T. Dye at Hawaii-Pacific University. Dr. Dye was a co-author of the AGM15 paper. He is probably one of the world’s foremost experts in Neutrino Physics, an entire sub-branch of Nuclear Physics. He called back in the afternoon. I almost fell off my chair.

We spoke for 45 minutes to an hour about the GeoReactor. I begged him to publish more broadly. He was cautious about his work, stating that much more data collection was necessary. Dr. Herndon has also cautioned me that monitoring antineutrinos and properly assessing the data is pretty tricky stuff.

Dr. Dye encouraged me to publish. Me !?!? A stinkin’ Bachelor of Chemical Engineering ?!?

After our call, I felt rather discouraged but then I realized that he was correct in his caution. Moreover, I wonder how much of his work for the NGA is covered by Confidentiality Agreements which restrict his ability to speak more freely.

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Erasing Western Culture

Warner Todd Huston

Book burning teachers unions looking to eliminate classic literature and replace the great books with gay and black books.

'Disrupt Texts' Aims to Scrub Schools of "Violent, Hateful" Classic Literature

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World Economic Forum Plans

This from Tom Waeghe

Behind enemy lines at World Economic Forum.

You can clearly see the he European influence and it drips with globalism and guvmint control.

Inventing New Modes of Governance

The traditional institutions spawned after World War II are becoming increasingly irrelevant

Pervasive digitalization, social media, and artificial intelligence combined to distort the United Kingdom’s Brexit vote and the 2016 US presidential election. Meanwhile inequality, the social and economic fallout from COVID-19, climate change, and migration have presented increasingly thorny governance challenges. The climate crisis demands coordinated answers at the local and global level, and governance structures largely inherited from the 19th and 20th centuries - like patriarchal institutions and political parties - are being questioned as they reach the limits of their usefulness. Voting, long the preferred mechanism for choosing decision-makers, is undermined by low voter turnout, and in the parts of the world where authoritarian governments curb democracy, or where certain communities have been unfairly targeted for generations, leaders are increasingly coming under pressure in the streets. The COVID-19 crisis has spurred governments to take further control of citizens’ lives and freedom of movement - triggering reactions. In some countries, there have been demonstrations against lockdowns and for greater freedom of movement, while other demonstrators have pressed for even stronger measures in order to help protect the population.
The pandemic has also diverted attention and funding from other public health issues, reduced the capacity of civil society organisations to function, and generated geopolitical tensions. This has only further pressured the multilateral system mostly formed after World War II. The friction between the US and China is one symptom of this deterioration, as is a Russian effort to develop a discrete "national” internet. However, new means of global cooperation are emerging. Multi-stakeholder efforts like the Internet Governance Forum are demonstrating that open platforms for discussion are not only possible, but also useful. Efforts born on the edges of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals are also promising. Many international civic-participation movements are being powered by digital coordination. Platforms like Avaaz and Change.org are gaining traction, and initiatives like the Global Citizens’ Dialogues are being implemented. At a national level, the French Citizens’ Convention for the Climate is an example of bringing together people from all over the country to develop and propose recommendations for an ecological transition in the country. Increasingly, old civic participation mechanisms are being brought up to date.

Responsible Data Use

Tension is mounting between the need to improve media quality and the responsibility to protect privacy

The increased ability to generate and analyse massive amounts of data has triggered a need to pay closer attention to principles governing its use. There have been several high-profile cases highlighting the need to be more cognizant of responsible data use; the Facebook-Cambri dge Analytica scandal, for example, involved millions of personal data points being harvested for targeted political advertising and showcased the need for transparency with users about who has access to their data - and how it is being used. In 2019, Twitter had to apologize for using personal information including phone numbers and email addresses for tailored advertisements, and Amazon came under pressure that same year, when it was revealed that thousands of company employees were listening in on the voice requests people regularly make to Amazon’s Alexa home assistant devices, in order to help train artificial intelligence algorithms as part of a process dubbed "data annotation.” While this technique is commonly used by other technology giants, most customers have no idea that it is occurring - and they are liable to provide personally identifiable information during the process that could be misused.
A number of different international institutions and agencies have attempted to articulate best practices for responsible data use. In 2018, representatives of the European Council and European Parliament agreed on implementing the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) as the bloc’s primary law governing how companies must protect data collected from European Union citizens. Some of the key related principles include requiring peoples’ consent to process their personal data, anonymizing data collection for the purposes of privacy protection, providing notification in case of a data breach, putting in place security safeguards when transferring data across borders, and appointing data protection officers to oversee GDPR compliance. Meanwhile in the US, the California Consumer Privacy Act (CCPA) went into effect in 2020 as a means to increase consumer privacy rights. The legislation grants people the right to know about all of the data collected on them by businesses, the right to deny the sale of that information, to delete any of that data they have posted, and to take legal action against businesses that were careless in protecting the data.

The disruption caused by the Fourth Industrial Revolution has been accelerated by COVID-19, and increased our need for agility, adaptability, and positive transformation. As the global economy rapidly digitalizes, an estimated 70% of new value created over the next decade will be based on digitally enabled platform business models. However, nearly half of the world’s population remains unconnected to the internet. While digital technologies have the potential to enable new value for everyone, they risk further exacerbating exclusion, the unequal concentration of power and wealth, and social instability. Companies must use digital infrastructure and data to collaborate, develop innovative business models, navigate disruption, and transition to a new normal - post-pandemic, purpose-driven, sustainable, and inclusive.
more...

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Noise

This from George Marlatt:

Another F word that may soon be censured is "fake". Another.way of thinking about things is in terms of a radio communication concept known as the signal to noise ratio. The same concept applies to light shining through fog. If the pilot sees the light through the fog he can keep from crashing. If the the radio signal can be interpreted in spite of the radio frequency interference the pilot may be able to avoid a crash. In the Bible I remember a term "a voice crying in the wilderness" , and Jesus said he was the light. He saved us. It is the same concept. The mainstream media degrading of Trump is analogous to intentional RFI. Trump has cut through the noise. I guess many choose to live in the noise. The pundit panels like "the five" or Joy Behair are no different than watching the pregame jock panels discussing sports teams. I have not watched any of this junk in 15 years. Informative YouTube's dissappear. I wish I had downloaded them. It is harder than ever to receive a clear signal through the intentional noise. However, I am tuned into the signal as are many of my FB friends. I have many FB friends who are picking up noise. It is hard to think straight with too much random and irrelevant information bombarding you. Orwell coined the term "double think". When one gets into the doublethink state it becomes difficult to discern the signal. It seems that many of our important government officials have reached a state skin to shell shock through all the double think. Another term used to describe it is cognitive dissonance. Bill Barr is a perfect example. He is obviously in a state of shock. Prozac and booze will not help. McConnell is another one but he has always been so inarticulate that he didn't seem to have things clear in his mind. I think G W Bush fits into this category. Trump is a clear thinker who does not drink. He talks in plain English and effectively communicates a consistent message even with the bombs landing. All the double thinkers that have joined his team then bailed out are Sessions, Bolton, Mattis, and others. Now we need to wonder what the Supreme Court will do. Mind you they need to avoid being accused of bias. This is worse than being accused of being a narcissist. I guess all we can expect is noise. Except for Trump it is mostly hollow men. Thomas and Alito are not vibrating in the noise. The Hollow Men say Trump is a narciscist. The term narcissist is misunderstood and has simply become part of the meaningless noise. Tune out the noise.

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Pelosi and Mac Daddy Plot to Stop Objection to Certification

This from Annette Read:

Nancy & Mitch #caring

Marjorie Taylor Greene tweeted: "Word on the Hill is that Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi could be working together on a rules change "deal" to block our Electoral College Certification objection. The American people deserve to hear about the voter fraud that took place on Nov 3 ... NO DEAL, NO COVER-UP!"

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The Solution To The Global Pandemic At the Veterinary Supplies Store?

James Doogue

Laboratory studies using monkey cells in a test tube reported in June have shown ivermectin can shut down the replication of SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus that causes COVID-19, within 24-48 hours of exposure to the drug.

Ivermectin is thought to inhibit the virus by preventing viral proteins moving in and out of the host cell’s nucleus, which is essential for replication of the coronavirus.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0166354220302011

You must have a read of this article about Ivermectin and Covid-19, by one of the most intelligent people I know, Western Australian, David Archibald . Be sure to read the material at the hyperlinks so you know what he's written is well sourced. https://wentworthreport.com/ivermectin-and-the-virus/

Joe Biden recently referred to his son Hunter Biden as the most intelligent person he knew. He used the words 'smartest' and 'from an intellectual capacity'. https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/12/18/what-joe-biden-had-to-say-about-hunter-during-late-show-interview-n2581792

Which means Joe understands 'intellect' to mean something totally different to it's common dictionary definition, or, his circle of intelligent people is small. Though I can understand that to Joe, most people would seem smarter than him. Rest assured, I know a lot of very smart, intelligent people.

 Be sure to read the link to David Archibald 's article above, repeated here: https://wentworthreport.com/ivermectin-and-the-virus/

The Australian government is spending billions of dollars supporting Covid-19 treatment and vaccine research. Globally trillions of dollars will be spent. Already more than 59 new billionaires have been minted off the back of Covid-19 in healthcare and vaccine development and supply. Just as many existing billionaires have added to their billions.

But there's no money in it for any of them if a cheap preventative,and treatment drug is already available and was all along.

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Little White Covid Lies

Bill H.

The Covid vaccine, they tell us, is 94.5% effective. Odd. The infection rate in the general public, positive tests among all people tested, is 4.5% as of today. That means that life without a vaccine is 95.5% effective, or 1% better than the vaccine. To repeat in another form, 94.5% of the people who received the vaccine did not get infected, while 95.5% of everybody else did not get infected.

Actually, it's even worse than that, because the trial only says that 94.5% did not develop symptoms of Covid-19. It does not say how many tested positive. In the general population, 80% of the 4.5% who tested positive showed no symptoms, so in actuality it's 5.5% of people with vaccine showing symptoms, versus 0.9% of everybody else.

One thing you can count on. Whenever the government speaks about the coronavirus, they are lying.

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December 30, 2020

No Shirt, No Shoes, No Conservatives

Warner Todd Huston

Washington D.C. Hotel Shuts Down to Avoid Serving Trump Voters Attending Jan. 6 Rally

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Biden to Cancel Moon Shot

Timothy Birdnow

O'Biden hasn't even assumed office yet but it's already clear he is going to kill the Moon shot.

Moon by 2024 No More/ NASA's Artemis Deadline for Crewed Lunar Landing likely to Relax Under Biden

The Left hates anything that is innovative, bold, courageous, expansive. They really hate the idea of America pioneering space. It's so...colonial of us! They want us small, restrained, contracting. They want us to naval gaze and not look outward as America has traditionally done. Better to spend our money here at home, to buy votes from an increasingly balkanized nation rather than unite us with a big, grand project that might actually make us proud of ourselves.

A vigorous, coming nation does great things and moves outward. A decadent, decaying nation looks inward. Biden and the Democrats promote decay.

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Doubling Down on Covid Lies

This from Bev Ehlen

I don't see this on the Missouri page. But the COVID 19 website has been expanded. One can find the information the "Citizens" link https://showmestrong.mo.gov/citizens/ It is still being suggested to wash hands, cough into elbow, don't touch face, stay six feet apart, and stay home if you feel sick. They have added three more-1. Disinfecting frequently used items and surfaces as much as possible.
2. Wear a cloth face covering when in a public setting where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies), especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.
3. Avoid socializing in groups that do not readily allow for appropriate physical distancing (receptions, trade shows, etc.)

Tim adds:

But, but, but...I thought the masking and social distancing already solved the problem! We were told it would just be a few weeks of it and that would be that! Now we are supposed to double down on the things they assured us would fix the problem nine months ago. If there was any value to any of this it would have worked back then. The fact is we simply delayed the end of the pandemic by sheltering ourselves temporarily. They even said back then it was to "flatten the curve" meaning stretch the epidemic out so the medical community could deal with it. Well, we stretched it out for the better part of a year now and they want more. I'm done giving them more.

We've made our world too antiseptic, by the way,  and we'll pay for that. You can't hide from diseases forever. And it's now been shown that the asymptomatic spread of the virus is bullpucky. That absolutely demolishes the whole "mask and social distance and quarantine" stupidity.

I also don't trust a radically new vaccine using an untested new approach.

This whole thing stinks, from the very beginning (which was politically motivated and intertwined with the U.S. elections) and has been more about superstition and control than about science or the public health.

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More Equal Than Others

Warner Todd Huston asks:

Can anyone tell me why the leftists always claim only "scientists" and "doctors" should be allowed to talk about the coronavirus, and yet they interview college dropout Bill Gates about the virus ALL the FRIKKIN time?

Tim observes:

The demand is designed purely to shut US up. They are saying we have no business expressing our opinions. Of course, scientists who don't toe the line are then "anti-science" and must also be gagged. Take a look at what has been done to scientsist who disagree with the so-called "consenus" in climate science; they are non-persons,as far as the media is concerned. But Bill Gates is a man of science because he says the right things. It's like when they said Bill Clinton was the most moral man in America because he said the right, politically correct things.

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Poison Pill McConnell

Timothy Birdnow

Mitch McConnell is trying to put a series of "poison pills" into any increase in the Democratic Covid Relief increase bill.

According to CNN:

McConnell, with this alternative bill, is tying all of Trump's demands into a single piece of legislation. While aides say it's unclear if the bill will actually come up -- there remains a possibility the 116th Congress comes to an end with no action at all -- should it do so, it would serve as a way to address the President's issues and give the two Georgia Republican senators in tight runoffs something to vote for.
Even without a vote, the existence of the bill itself would appear to address Trump's demands from a Sunday statement that the Senate "start the process for a vote that increases checks to $2,000, repeals Section 230, and starts an investigation into voter fraud."
By introducing the bill and moving to place it on the Senate calendar, McConnell has, technically, started that process. McConnell himself appeared to allude to the very specific language in his earlier Senate floor remarks, noting that the chamber would "begin a process" to address the President's demands.
Trump, however, has continued to beat the drum on the increased payments on Twitter -- and to attack Republican leaders.

McConnell is looking to include an investigation into vote fraud in the bill. It also eliminates "section 230" the legal protection for social media from lawsuits.

Of course, had the President not signed the original bill he wouldn't need McConnell to block this additional funding.

The original bill gave vast sums of money to foreign countries and to pet Democratic projects. The final tally of the bill will be in the trillions. Trump made a lot of noise then signed it with "redlines" meaning he asked "pretty please" that Congress remove the stuff he didn't like. Naturally Pelosi and Schumer just laughed at that.

The "stimulus" as the Democrats call it will accomplish little; without reopening the country it will be merely a life preserver as businesses continue to fail.

It is, of course, important to win the runoff elections, which is why the Democrats created the original monstrosity; they knew the media would not tell the American People what was in it and wanted to make Trump look like the Grinch if he refused to sign it (and by extension the candidates running in the GOP.) Trump clearly understood that. But at this point he should just do what is right and not what might help the GOP, which lifted nary a finger to help him. While winning these seats is critical, given the election was stolen and so will all subsequent elections one wonders how much it really matters who wins this. We are going to lose no matter what; it's just a matter of how fast.

Had McConnell done his job properly in the first place and not passed that monstrous give away, he wouldn't now be forced to poison pill this extra treat for the Democrats. Actually, had he worked with Trump and defended the President (and the nation's electoral integrity) he wouldn't be in this boat. His devious nature is to blame here, in my opinion. McConnell never liked Trump, and gave him at best luke-warm support.

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December 29, 2020

The Progressive Nanny Ninnies

David Nabhan observes:

Not too long ago everyone had the freedom to drink a beer while driving home from work, all the way up until 1987—it was being drunk at the wheel that was against the law. And prior to 1989 if you wanted to have a cigarette while enjoying your airline flight the stewardess would bring you the matches. No one dared to inquire if, why, or when you spanked your children when they misbehaved, and during scuffles if the police were convinced that one of the parties had offended the other with "fighting words” an assault was deemed not to have occurred. If you’re in your 20’s or 30’s, cowering in your rabbit hole wearing a mask, with everything under the Sun prohibited, being forced to call guys in drag "ma’am” and not even allowed to exhale too deeply since your toxic masculine breath contains demon carbon dioxide, the world of just a few years ago must seem like a fairy tale. But that’s the way things were. Imagine what sort of world the malignant Marxist rats will have cooked up by your children’s time. Medieval serfs will seem like free-wheeling mavericks compared to the slavish lives in store for them.

Tim adds:

The open container laws came after the campaign against drunk driving. While that may have had a reasonable goal, the fact is it started everywwhere at once, in all the newspapers, on all the television stations. It was obnviously a carefully planned, orchestrated campaign. I was suspicious at the time because it was not a grassroots movement but clearly a top down thing with lots of money behind it. Now you can't drink a beer on your way home from work, or even walk down the street with one. The Nanny stater types have the whole world locked up in their pockets, and demand we all accept their anointed vision of what is good for us like it or not. Time was when the attitude was "live and let live" and if you didn't like something you avoided it. If smoking bothered you you didn't go to a bar with people smoking. Now the attitude is there is an unlimited right to not be annoyed or offended and the whole world has to bow to the current politically correct notion of the day. Of course, if you point out that this leads eventually to totalitarianism

you are mocked as a nut, but the fact is every tyrant started out by saying he was working for the public good. The clean, decent society we had had problems, no doubt, but it was certainly more successful in terms of happy people living fulfilling lives. Now everyone is at everyone's throat and most people are miserable because they don't have what they want, the godhead they were promised. And yet so many will not consider returning to the things that made our world better back then, saying "we can't go back". Well, why not? Has this great Progessive experiment been so successful?

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Deep State

George Marlatt theorizes:

I just wrote a long post on it. After Clinton took over he replaced Barr with Janet Reno, and Clinton fired most off the prosecutors and replaced them with new ones. Where do you get hundreds of names of new prosecutors. Barr most likely had it lined up but he was still under a Bush administration that was attempting to live off the popularity of Reagan
Clinton brought in Reno who was totally unaqualified. All the new prosecutors were under her. Were they taking orders from her? The new prosecutors were deep state picks and form the basis of DOJ. This is my guess. When was Andrew Weissman hired? I guess the non investigation of the Foster murder was under Reno. The FBI director was replaced the day before Foster was murdered. Under Reno we had Waco, Ruby Ridge, and the Oklahoma city bombing covered up by the FBI and DOJ. Reno was a well intentioned person of integrity in my opinion. She was never in charge. She was replaced by John Ashcroft who is a Evangelical Christian. I remember the confirmation hearings with that fat Eddy Kennedy grandstanding to make sure that Ashcroft's religious fervor would not turn into some Facist thing like preventing women from having abortions. Ashcroft was like Reno, he did nothing. Non investigation of the 911. He didn't realize that it needed to be investigated. DOJ was running on autopilot or by the CIA assets brought in under Clinton. Then we had Gonzales. Obama put in Eric Holder who got caught in the Fast and Furious corruption. Did they get rid of any of the Fast and Furious operatives . I doubt it. They scapegoated Holder and saved the team. Then we had Loretta Lynch. What did she think her job was? She declared that she wanted to make denying global warming a hate crime. Then somehow Sessions was coached to get on the good side of Trump and get the AG spot. He did this. Trump kept him even after recused himself. Why couldn't he just be fired immediately. Trump felt he needed to deal openly with the Russia hoax and was encouraged to do so by his chief of staff, General Kelly, another backstabber. Trump weathered it all. It takes tremendous real courage and character to deal with what he has dealt with get all we get from the msm is that Trump is a narcissist or mentally unsuited.
Next after Sessions we get Barr who I think was the key CIA player that initiated the destruction of DOJ. He is real smooth, and very smart. He got stuck in a position where he could not pull off his act. He has finally been forced to lay down his cards. You can see looking at him that he is under stress. I wonder who the higher up is who called his number and reminded him of his obligation under threat of death to the secret team

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Failed Predictions

Timothy Birdnow

The proof of any hypothesis is if it can make accurate predictions. Climate change is littered with failed predictions.

egg on their faces; ten climate predictions that went horribly wrong pj media

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If It's Raining More Why no More Flooding?

Timothy Birdnow

Despite "extreme rainfall events" there has been no net increase in flooding nationwide.

From Roger Pielke Jr.'s site:

A new paper in Water Resources Research discusses an apparent paradox:

Extreme precipitation events, which fall into the 99th percentile of daily events, have increased across the contiguous United States since the 1950s in response to rising temperatures. But despite assertions by the climate community that increasing precipitation extremes inevitably lead to higher flood magnitudes, multiple studies have demonstrated that this has not been the case.

In this post I discuss this apparent paradox, which we wrote about 20 years ago, and its relationship to common misrepresentations of climate science. More after the jump.

The new paper is:

Sharma, A., Wasko, C., & Lettenmaier, D. P. (2018). If precipitation extremes are increasing, why aren’t floods?. Water Resources Research, 54:8545-8551.

Many people believe that flooding has been on the increase. It hasn’t. One reason for this confusion may be the fact that "extreme” precipitation has increased in many places. I put "extreme” in scare quotes because many scientific definitions of "extreme” are statistical and are not necessarily closely associated with flooding or flood damage (see Pielke and Downton 2000 linked below). However, another reason for confusion is that some enthusiastic advocates for climate action willfully misrepresent the science of flooding and precipitation. More on that at the conclusion to this post.

Back to Sharma et al. who conclude that the relationship between extreme precipitation and flooding is complicated.

[...]

Thus, any single measure of precipitation would be unlikely to explain much about flooding or flood damage. Hence, it is perfectly reasonable that some "extreme” precipitation metrics would show an increase, yet flooding or flood damage would not show a corresponding increase, and might even show no trends or a decrease. The figure at the top of this post comes from our paper and presents some of this complexity.

We concluded:

[W]hether a given increase in precipitation leads to increased hydrologic flooding will depend on its geographical distribution and timing, and whether population growth leads to increased flood damage depends on whether and how the growth occurs within the flood plain. In addition, our analysis provides supporting evidence for the notion that increasing U.S. precipitation documented by Karl and colleagues has not led to a corresponding increase in the highest levels of streamflow documented by Lins and Slack. . . In conclusion, the relationship of climate, hydrology, and society in producing damaging floods is complex
and not fully understood.

The lack of trends in flooding — in the US or globally — is well documented and appears in the assessments of the IPCC and US National Climate Assessment. Yet despite this robust understanding, claims persist by many journalists and leading climate scientists that flooding has increased. Such false claims are made even worse when the (nonexistent) increases in flooding are attributed to an increase in greenhouse gases. A third misrepresentation occurs when the phantom trends flooding are then linked to increasing precipitation, which has an actual trend in some place that has been attributed to some degree to human influences (per IPCC).

As I have written about for years, the misrepresentation of the detection and attribution of trends in extreme weather events is common by advocates for climate action, many of whom certainly know better. My pointing this out has led to considerable career repercussions, but I’ll continue to do so because I’m on the right side of the evidence and have been for a long time. Good science wins out in the end, even if it takes 20 years.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:42 AM | Comments (10) | Add Comment
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