Timothy Birdnow

So Trump cannot win, they tell us, because he can't win Independent voters.

Bullsquat.

There were 43 million registered Republicans in 2020 (I've also seen a lower figure of 38 million https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/registered-voters-by-party, but we'll stick with the higher number for the sake of argument) and yet Trump won 74 million votes. That means that back then he picked up 31 million independents. Bear in mind the Democrats outnumber the Republicans anyway. So Trump won an awful lot of those Independents who supposedly hate him.

And after the '22 election over a million people switched their party affiliation to Republican from Democrat.https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/more-than-1-million-voters-switch-to-gop-raising-alarm-for-democrats

Bear in mind too that the NeverTrump wing of the GOP undoubtedly didn't vote for Trump, so he actually picked up MORE Independents as guys like Jonah Goldberg or Mitch McConnell undoubtedly voted for Joe Biden.

This "Trump can't win independents" claim is based entirely on politicized polling.

And even if the polls are on the up-and-up you must remember the Wilder Effect; Trump has been demonized by the press and many of those polled are going to say they are turned off by Trump but then they may vote for him anyway. Ballots are secret and they aren't telling a pollster something in a one-on-one conversation.

I would ask how is it Trump is leading Biden in polls if he has to have the independents and none of them are on his side? Trump would have beaten Biden in early July https://www.newsweek.com/trump-biden-poll-swing-states-2024-1810725 and in late July https://nypost.com/2023/07/22/trump-dominates-gop-field-beating-biden-in-general-election-poll/ and as of August 1 even Politico, a very biased organization, had to admit Trump was in a dead heat with Biden. www.politico.com › news › 2023/08/01 › biden-trump-2024-poll-00109161 CBS News poll from August 20 shows Trump with a widening lead over Biden. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-poll-indictments-2023-08-20 So how is all this happening without independents? Republicans make up just This after the pounding Trump took.

Trump's mug shot has only increased his odds with traditionally Democratic groups like Blacks https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/fairness-justice/backlash-to-trump-mug-shot-is-growing-particularly-among-black-menor Hispanics. And it has led to a rise in Trump's poll numbers, as even a Democrat pollster admits. https://www.wcvb.com/article/on-the-record-donald-trump-mug-shot-poll-reaction/44920143

I know that if you look solely at these polls you will conclude Trump can't win independents, but if you look at the larger picture it's clear he can and did - and will.

BTW Bill Clinton's numbers rose with his impeachment; it appeared to the public Clinton was being persecuted. Why would that work then for a scumbag like Bill but not for Donald Trump, who clearly IS being persecuted for political reasons?

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:23 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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