Timothy Birdnow

If anyone is wondering at how the elites are thinking about this war between Ukraine and Russia, here it is.

They see Russia in the same position as the U.S in Korea; not really trying to win this out of fear of escalation.

From the article:

"Moscow is trapped in a similar predicament today. Despite calls for peace by pro-Putin appeasers, it is Russia – not the West – that is most concerned with preventing escalation.

In fact, the evidence suggests that the Kremlin is willing to extend the conflict’s duration, sustain additional military casualties, tolerate Ukraine’s ground incursions into border regions like Belgorod, risk Ukrainian drone strikes destroying military targets in the Russian Federation, endure canceled commercial flights at international airports in cities such as Moscow, suffer crippling economic sanctions, and even endure embarrassing international isolation to avoid fighting a full-scale war against NATO.

Like the U.S. in Korea, Russia will not risk striking military targets located in NATO countries because Moscow seeks to contain the conflict within Ukraine’s borders, avoid massive retaliation from the Alliance, and prevent the outbreak of a great power conflict – or nuclear exchange. Given that Moscow’s mission to capture Kyiv in three days has turned into a 19-month fiasco, Russia already has its hands full with the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU). Triggering NATO’s Article 5 and having the most powerful military alliance in history join the fight against Russia would be suicidal. This, above all else, is Moscow’s ultimate limitation in Ukraine.

The AFU is not subject to that same constraint. Having learned from the United States’ experience in Korea, the AFU is committed to expelling Russia from Ukraine’s borders. It is also able and willing to strike military targets deep within Russian territory to accomplish that objective. Furthermore, like the Soviet Union and China in Korea, Kyiv’s partners can afford to underwrite the war for as long as the Ukrainian people are able and willing to fight.

Hypothetically, the West could train tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers and provide Ukraine with an unlimited supply of high-quality weaponry, ammunition, and humanitarian assistance. No matter how many weapons factories, storage facilities, repair shops, and training centers the West builds in neighboring NATO countries like Poland, Romania, and Czechia, Russia has no way of stopping those indispensable lifelines from reaching Ukraine.

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Put simply, Russia can’t achieve total victory in Ukraine today for the same reason why the U.S. and its United Nations partners were unable to defeat the Korean communists decisively in the 1950s: rational and self-imposed restraint. The West would be wise to recall the lessons from America’s difficulties in the Korean War, reverse-engineer the requisite solutions, and expedite the transfer of deliverables required for Ukraine to expel Russia from its territory."

End

To quote Bugs Bunny "he don't know me very well, do he!"

Putin's prestige, nay, his very survival is dependent on winning this. He cannot allow Russia to lose.

And he has kept his best forces in reserve. Russia clearly has not thrown everything at Ukraine. Is that out of fear of Western intervention? No; he's already in country. Does that mean he'll really, really, really! invade this time?

This also fails to understand that Putin is backed by the BRICKS countries, especially China, and that this isn't like Korea at all in that regard. Our problem in Korea was that we were fighting a war in Asia, very far from home, and we were doing it with China right there, willing and able to send troops. And with the Soviets not far.

The fact is Korea was a charlie foxtrot, a very poorly strategized affair.

Also, we fought under the auspices of the United Nations.

Russia is not doing that. Russia can choose whatever strategy she wishes without having to beg for authorization.

But tis is how the elites are strategizing this, and how they believe there will be no major escalation.

They are nuts. Putin isn't going down without a fight. He'll use whatever is at his disposal.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:33 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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