August 23, 2021

Why Our Polls are Wrong

This courtesy of Cornelius Carroll.

by John F. Di Leo -

"Remember that public opinion polls are based on the same data sets that election polls are based on.

If those data sets are wrong, then EVERY other poll is wrong too.

Here's how polls work: they pick a thousand people, and ask questions about those people's demographics. Then they look at how those demographics voted last election, and extrapolate under the assumption that the breakdown of the current 1000 people will break roughly the same way.

But here's the problem: what if that last election had, say, a foundation of 15% fabricated votes?

That is, 15% of the votes last time weren't real, so there's an assumption in the polls that reads a portion of the electorate incorrectly because it's based on a nonexistent subgroup.

Look at today's polling about Biden approval levels. Depending on how many of his 81 million vote were fake - five million? ten million? thirty million? - that's going to color any poll's results as well, because it causes the pollster to improperly weight each demographic's response in every survey they do.

Back when everyone thought that vote fraud was "only" a couple percent of the total, this didn't used to be a major fear. People assumed it could be buried in the poll's margin of error.

But now that we are finally beginning to realize what a huge presence Democrat vote fraud really is in our political system, we need to realize how that affects all the other information we rely on, as well.”

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:21 PM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 266 words, total size 2 kb.

1 For years I've distrusted polls. I don't take part in them, but I have a Conservative friend who always answers the phone when the pollsters call and tells them the exact opposite of what he believes, or how he intends to vote. He says "I love to mess with their minds."

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at August 23, 2021 01:13 PM (j5ngG)

2 Polls are crap and have been for a long time Dana. They are always weighted for the Democrats. For the last few decades they have been purest fiction.

Their intent now is to lead opinion, not follow it.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at August 24, 2021 07:15 AM (Xck8P)

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