March 10, 2021
The Vortex of the Problem
Allan MacRae
I nailed the current global cold Winter forecast in August 2020 below. The hard part is forecasting where the polar vortex is going next – but those who forecast a warm winter were delusional.
Regarding the warmist loons who claimed "Global Warming caused this extreme cold†– their lies are not even credible enough to be specious.
From previous posts on wattsup:
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
[excerpts]
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
5. UAH LT Global Temperatures can be predicted ~4 months in the future with just two parameters:
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth (Figs. 5a and 5b)
6. The sequence is Nino34 Area SST warms, seawater evaporates, Tropical atmospheric humidity increases, Tropical atmospheric temperature warms, Global atmospheric temperature warms, atmospheric CO2 increases (Figs.6a and 6b).
I wrote in August 2020:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – so global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.* Spring could also be late in many parts of the world.
[* Looking at the data – I’d have to go with Yankee Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil (predicts six more weeks of winter), not Canuck’s Wiarton Willie, Shubenacadie Sam and Fred La Marmotte (called early spring). The Rite of Spring, like science, is not a democracy – it’s not about consensus – it is what it is! Attaboy Phil! Hi Four!]
Check the beautiful La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – the blue stuff.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png
I nailed the current global cold Winter forecast in August 2020 below. The hard part is forecasting where the polar vortex is going next – but those who forecast a warm winter were delusional.
Regarding the warmist loons who claimed "Global Warming caused this extreme cold†– their lies are not even credible enough to be specious.
From previous posts on wattsup:
CO2, GLOBAL WARMING, CLIMATE AND ENERGY
by Allan M.R. MacRae, B.A.Sc., M.Eng., June 15, 2019
[excerpts]
This formula works reasonably well back to 1982, which is the limit of my data availability.
5. UAH LT Global Temperatures can be predicted ~4 months in the future with just two parameters:
UAHLT (+4 months) = 0.2*Nino34Anomaly + 0.15 – 5*SatoGlobalAerosolOpticalDepth (Figs. 5a and 5b)
6. The sequence is Nino34 Area SST warms, seawater evaporates, Tropical atmospheric humidity increases, Tropical atmospheric temperature warms, Global atmospheric temperature warms, atmospheric CO2 increases (Figs.6a and 6b).
I wrote in August 2020:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/08/23/solar-plasma-temperature-is-plunging-should-we-worry/#comment-3068819
Check out NIno34 temperatures, again down to Minus 0.6C – winter will be cold.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/nino34.png
Nino34 SST anom’s hit minimums of minus1.4C-1.3C in Oct2020 and Nov2020 – so global coldest temperatures (+4 months) should be Feb2021 and Mar2021.* Spring could also be late in many parts of the world.
[* Looking at the data – I’d have to go with Yankee Groundhog Punxsutawney Phil (predicts six more weeks of winter), not Canuck’s Wiarton Willie, Shubenacadie Sam and Fred La Marmotte (called early spring). The Rite of Spring, like science, is not a democracy – it’s not about consensus – it is what it is! Attaboy Phil! Hi Four!]
Check the beautiful La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean – the blue stuff.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/cb/ssta/ssta.daily.current.png
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:46 AM
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The Gods of Weather (of which there is only one, of course) were good to my wife and me this year, I must say. Scheduled to move into a new home on January 16, and needing to do a lot of preparation, including a number of trips to Goodwill and the local recycling center, my city near Minneapolis, MN, enjoyed mild winter weather for the most part, and it was especially lucky for me because I had "offloaded" my snowblower a few days before the move, as I wouldn't need it where we were going (the HOA supposedly would take care of snow removal). We got some accumulation the day before we were to move, but not enough to cause a problem. The handyman engaged to do a lot of painting and other work in the new place had problems "getting good help," so on moving day painting was not done, his stuff was all over the floor on both levels and the movers had to fill the garage with our boxes, which caused us great difficulties, from which we have just recently emerged -- essentially we had to move twice.
Once everything was under one roof, Mr. Polar Vortex came roaring in for a two-week stay, with temperatures down to minus 17. He should have known better. This just causes Minnesotans to put on their long pants and long-sleeved jackets, and my dog has to wear his boots. After finally realizing that he wasn't making all that much of an impression, he went down to harass Texas, and the world heard about it.
What with broken-down moving boxes taking up considerable space in the garage, we still can't put our cars in. But everything else is in the house. The snow has melted from our back lawn, where it was a good seven inches when we moved in. Five geese were strolling on the still-frozen pond today. Life is good. Global warming? Don't waste my time! This is acting like an early spring, but I've seen this sort of thing before. We'll have more snow before actual spring comes.
Once everything was under one roof, Mr. Polar Vortex came roaring in for a two-week stay, with temperatures down to minus 17. He should have known better. This just causes Minnesotans to put on their long pants and long-sleeved jackets, and my dog has to wear his boots. After finally realizing that he wasn't making all that much of an impression, he went down to harass Texas, and the world heard about it.
What with broken-down moving boxes taking up considerable space in the garage, we still can't put our cars in. But everything else is in the house. The snow has melted from our back lawn, where it was a good seven inches when we moved in. Five geese were strolling on the still-frozen pond today. Life is good. Global warming? Don't waste my time! This is acting like an early spring, but I've seen this sort of thing before. We'll have more snow before actual spring comes.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 10, 2021 03:45 PM (nIFkI)
2
You did have good luck with the weather. Can't say the same for us here; we had a blizzard the day Cathy had to go to the hospital (actually, on both days she had to go) and a heavy downpour yesterday for her first treatment. It's like Mother Nature was weeping.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 12, 2021 09:27 AM (I0u6K)
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