I had Gemini take the information in Bass’s chart and apply the same analysis to midterm turnout going back to 1960. To show the difference between presidential years and midterms, I had it look at turnout in both types of elections.

The data is simply staggering. Over the last 66 years, the average decline for Democrats in midterm elections from the prior presidential election was 22.8%, while for Republicans it was 23.1%.

However, the 2018 midterms were different. While GOP turnout declined by 19.3% from the presidential election, consistent with previous patterns, the Democrat decline from 2016 was only 1.8%, which stands out as anomalous.

In 2026, if the numbers hold, the GOP will again hew to this 66-year pattern, with turnout 25.5% lower than in 2024. Meanwhile, the Democrat turnout in the midterm will be a mere .6% lower than in 2024.

So basically, Republicans voted normally in 2018 and 2016 while Democrats turned out in numbers literally never seen before, and it’s not even close.

That simply doesn’t hold water. Sure, Democrats hate Trump, but they hated Nixon even more. Nevertheless, in 1970, with Vietnam raging and the Weather Underground leftists carrying out bombings from Berkeley to New York to Chicago, the Democrat decline in turnout from 1968 was 18%.

And in Texas some strange things are going on. In what was, until Tuesday, one of the reddest and most prosperous states in the Union, Democrats suddenly increased their off-year election total by almost two million, or 47% (3.55M to 5.23M). Moreover, they did so in a state where the population grew by fewer than 2 million American citizens between 2022 and 2026. What’s more, of that 2M population growth, at least 30% were children, who can’t legally vote.

That’s about 1.4 million new potential voters. Generally, 65% of American adults vote in any given election, which should mean about 1 million new voters in Texas. But we’re supposed to believe that in one of America’s reddest states Democrats not only took 100% of the new voters, but drew an additional million voters from the GOP or elsewhere? All while the Republicans showed up in exactly the expected numbers?

And somehow, the Democrat gubernatorial candidate, Gina Hinojosa, someone whom practically no one knew, who had been down by 2 points going into Tuesday, magically ends up winning by 8 points.

The Republican Party of Texas has moved in recent years to end open primaries, arguing Democrats and independents routinely cross over to influence Republican nominations.

In 2024, GOP primary voters approved a ballot proposition supporting closed primaries, and delegates to the party’s convention that same year later adopted Rule 46, which would limit participation in Republican primaries to registered Republicans.

However, Nelson argues the current version of Rule 46 that was approved by the State Republican Executive Committee is temporary and will not take effect unless it is ratified by party delegates at a future state convention.

In her reply supporting a motion to dismiss, Nelson argues that the party is asking the court to strike down state election law without first finalizing how its own closed-primary system would operate.

"Because the Party did not have a closed-primary rule set to govern any primary when it filed its complaint—and still does not have one even now—it does not presently have any associational injury to assert,” the filing states.

Nelson also argues the case is not ripe for judicial review, stating that even under the GOP’s own internal rules, any closed-primary system could not apply until at least 2028—meaning the 2026 Primary Election would proceed under existing open-primary law regardless of the lawsuit’s outcome.

The reply further challenges Attorney General Ken Paxton’s decision to side with the Texas GOP and seek a fast resolution through a joint motion for consent judgment declaring the open-primary system unconstitutional.

Nelson argues Paxton lacks authority to waive the state’s sovereign immunity or bind Texas to an agreed judgment.

The changing of the guard is not unique,” said Chris McGinn, executive director for Texas Association of County Election Officials. "It is just more so the timing. And I think just from the greater political atmosphere, the concern is ‘why now?’”

McGinn said appointing an election denier could disrupt the election and sow distrust in the electoral process. He pointed to Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who stood against efforts to overturn the state’s 2020 presidential election results despite the political pressures from Trump.

"If he weren't in place in Georgia, we could have a very different outcome,” McGinn said. "So, I think the fear is, if we don't have that support from the secretary of state’s office in Texas, who knows what the outcome can be.”

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:00 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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