September 17, 2020

The Real Unemployment rate

This from James Doogue, our friend from Down Under:

The Real Underlying Unemployment Rate is Double What We Are Told.

Headline unemployment rates are illusory. But the media and public don't understand that.

Reduced workforce participation rate effectively reduces the unemployment rate. When people give up, or don't bother looking for work, the unemployment rate reduces.

When taking that into account, the effective unemployment rate is 9.3%. But even that rate is hiding the true figure.

Currently there are about 6.5 million people having their salary subsidised by the $1,500 pfn of JobKeeper payment. That's almost half the entire workforce. The rate of payment will reduce from the end of September, but is guaranteed until March next year.

How many of those subsidised jobs will evaporate when the JobKeeper rate reduces, and eventually cuts out, is anyone's guess. My guess is at the very minimum 10%.

That alone would grow the effective unemployment rate to just under 15%, a number I forecast for the end of the year, back in April.

But there are other ways of hiding our real unemployment rate. The more obvious, are the growth in part-time jobs versus full-time, and the reduction in hours worked per employee on average, or under-employmen t.

There's also been a surge in public service jobs in the State and Federal Government's which are pandemic related. But I guess the chances of getting rid of them after this pandemic nonsense is over, is highly unlikely.

So taking all things into account, it's likely our real underlying unemployment rate is close to 15%, about double the headline rate announced at 6.8%.

The government's propoganda mill continues!

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 06:41 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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