Ttimothy Birdnow

Here is the real danger of pressing this war in Iran.

Russia and China both se Iran as a strategic partner. Russia has long had close ties with Iran, and working toegether they sought to dominate oil and gas supplies heading to Europe. When Russia cut off gas to the Ukraine a number of years back the Europeans realized their vulnerability (and that may be part of why they pushed the failed policies of "green energy" and the U.S. took action by attempting to build oil and gas pipelines through friendly countries. The BTC pipeline, for instance, went through Georgia and bipassed both Iran and Russia. It was the primary reason Russia invaded Georgia in 2008.

The cornerstone of Putin's foreign policy is energy dominance. For that he needs the alliance with Iran. (That is also why he did NOT support Trump but rather Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, despite claims by the media to the contrary.)

Now the U.S. is unlocking her own oil fields and threatening Russian energy dominance, and at the same time this Israeli-Iranian conflict is threatening the very survival of the Mullahs in Iran and that threatens Russian energy dominance. Putin knows this.

Meanwhile the Chinese get most of their oil from Iran, and even if they did not the proverb "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" holds true for them. Trump is an existential threat to China and Xi knows it. Standing with Russia in defense of Iran may keep the American behomoth at bay, as far as he sees it.

Now would be a good time to go after Taiwan.

And let us not forget that the war between Russia and the Ukraine is still raging and this still presents a real threat. The Europeans desperately want this war, adn desperately want the Ukraine to win.

We are tiptoeing through a minefield. Any wrong move could wind up starting the Big One.

Which is why I support a limited strike with our bunker-busters; take out the nuclear facilities and then let Iran deal with her own problems. No boots on the ground. Iran would be a real bear to take via traditional armies, much harder than Iraq. While it wouldn't be like fighting in Afghanistan it would still be a bear, especially since there are far more Iranians than Afghanis. (Iran has a series of high mountains surrounding an interior high plateau. The whole country sits high - 1,500 feet with one sixth over 6,500 feet. The center of Iran is an arid wasteland too. The Romans could never defeat Iran in open conflict; that speaks volumes.)

There is a reason why no colonial power ever annexed Iran. Britain conquered India, France Indochina, but nobody had the stones to go after Iran. That is no coincidence.

So it would be nuts to plan an invasion. And airstrikes must happen quickly and decisively. But it probably would be better than doing nothing at this point. Israel is willing to do the heavy lifting; we just need to provide the things they do not have (like bunker-buster bombs) and turn them loose.

We should also offer material support for insurgents in Iran and perhaps offer to return Reza Pahlavi to reassume the throne if the Iranian People want to finally rid themselves of their terrorist masters. But it has to be their doing, not ours.

We are at an inflection point in history; this will change the balance of world power one way or another. How that changes depends on how we handle it. Sadly we have an isolationist wing of the MAGA movement that thinks we can completely ignore this and it will go away. They are as wrong as the Neocon warmongers. Sometimes a fight is thrust upon you and you can either get your face stove in or you can fight back and win. I am mindful of the movie The Karate Kid; Mr. Miagi asks if his young protege' thinks karate is about fighting. The young Daniel figures out where this is going "no, you learn it to avoid fighting". That is basically the point of America having a military in the first place. But sometimes the fight is thrust upon you.

Events have drifted for a long time. Now things are coming to a head; we can either steer them in the right direction or put our heads in the same and wait until we have no options. I think Trump is handling this very well. He's not taking our involvement off the table but he's not jumping in feet first. That is the mark of a statesmen.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:20 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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