Birdnow's Aviary

July 10, 2026

The Nose of the Kamal in the Tent

Timothy Birdnow

It's because she's an idiot but not COMPLETELY insane.

Harris Leads Newsom by Double Digits in Early 2028 Poll

Newsom has some serious baggage and it keeps growing all the time. He's now under investigation. Harris is the last great hope for them, like Jim Jeffries was the last great white hope to defeat the black Heavyweight champion Jack Johnson. Jeffries, an old, out of shape former undefeated champion, got creamed.

From the National Flatline, er, pulse:

Former Vice President Kamala Harris holds an early lead in the race for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, according to a new Quantus Insights national poll conducted July 3, 6, and 7, which found her supported by 35.3 percent of likely voters compared with 17.7 percent for California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg received 12.9 percent, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez earned 11.1 percent, and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro trailed with 7.1 percent in the survey of 1,140 respondents, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. On the Republican side, Vice President J.D. Vance led the field with 42.2 percent support, ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 25.9 percent and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 8.7 percent. The findings are consistent with other 2026 polls that have shown Harris maintaining a double-digit advantage over Newsom, including surveys by Center Square Voters’ Voice and Lake Research Partners. Although no major candidates have formally announced 2028 campaigns, the results suggest Harris begins the early Democratic contest as the clear frontrunner, with Republicans appearing even more consolidated behind Vance. Early polling primarily reflects name recognition and current political standing, but it can influence fundraising, party perceptions, and campaign momentum as the race develops.

The Kamel was sold to America as a moderate centrist, something she most definitely is not and never was. But this proves the party as a whole does NOT support the new young turks, the radicals who are winning in isolated instances but who ultimately, when push comes to shove, will likely lose in the general election.

On the GOP side we've got a deep bench there - Vance, Rube, and DeSantis. Any of those guys would make a great President. I still don't trust Rubio after his signing on to the Gang of Six (or was it eight?) to push Comprehensive Immigration Reform, and his accusing opponents of the bill of racism. Maybe it was a youthful indiscretion, but I find that indicative of a problem deep in his core. He went with the wind and now is all MAGA because that is the way the wind is blowing. But he's done a good job.

DeSantis has been excellent and I'd love him to be Prez. Maybe Rube can be Veep? But I think Vance is the likeliest candidate to win.

But the '28 elections are a long way off. Much will change. People will start seriously thinking about this stuff.

Watch for the Donkeys to pull a dark horse out of their a, er, pants. That is how they've won every election since Kennedy with the exception of Biden; pick a nobody out of nowhere. Carter was a "who's that", so was Bill Clinton. So was Barack Hussein. Biden was a known quantity and look how that turned out. So I suspect they are going to try to surprise us with some oyster farmer or some such.

We'll be coming in with a known quantity. Much will depend on how anti-establishment the public feels at the time. IF things are going great we'll likely do well (although even that is uncertain as the media can turn a rose into a pile of bear droppings if give enough time and leeway.) But if the economy is bad or we are in a quagmire in Iran or elsewhere we're liable to find the going hard. Dark horses do well in unstable times. Watch for the Democrats to try for another Covid type "emergency" to give them the ability to steal the election. It won't be Covid again but no doubt they are sitting on a stool, dunce, er, thinking caps on trying to plot out the next big thing to steal elections.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 02:36 PM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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1 Give me a break. A dead frog would lead Newsom by double digits.

Posted by: Bill H at July 10, 2026 11:01 PM (FRG6e)

2 But Kameltoe's got the advantage of checking the right racial box (and I was going to say "being a box too," but this is a family blog so I won't say that, I'll merely point out that she's female, and maybe Tim won't ban me).

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at July 11, 2026 12:41 AM (gVePp)

3 Well Dana, okay, maybe only a female dead frog.

Posted by: Bill H at July 11, 2026 09:51 AM (FRG6e)

4 I'd rather the dead frog Bill; at least it would cause less damage.
'Sneaky how you did that Dana!

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 13, 2026 05:51 AM (oflqW)

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