This from Guy F. Beebe:

Tim adds:

Well said! I once had an argument with a warmist. I said "they can't even get the weather right half of the time for the next three days" He said "they have a 46% success rate within three days" to which I replied "I stand corrected, it's under half the time they are right" at which point he exploded. The fact is weather predicting was the genesis of chaos theory; a guy was running a weather predicting program and he found if he reran it from aa given point with the exact same variables programmed in he got wildly different results. There are too many varianbles at play. And models by necessity are simplifications of reality (otherwise we wouldn't need them.) We cannot model certain things with any degree of accuracy. Weather is one such; there are far too many things happening simultaneously across the globe to get more than a good guess at the next day or two. Climate is simply the sum of weather and while it's a bit more predictable in terms of what we see it's not at all predictable long term. This is a farce.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:06 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
Post contains 203 words, total size 1 kb.