Timothy Birdnow

Anyone remember The Bridge Over the River Kwai? This 1957 film featured Alec Guinness (Obi Wan Kenobi from Star Wars for you young-ens) as a British Senior POW officer held by the Japanese. This particular POW camp was deep in the jungles of Burma and the captive Allied soldiers were impressed into service to build a railroad bridge over the River Kwai for the Japanese military. Until Lieutenant Colonel Nicholson (Guiness) arrived the POW's loafed about and attempted as best they could to sabotage the project. But Nicholson was a born politician, and he made demands.

Colonel Saito, the Japanese commander, was under a tight deadline and he needed to get this project completed, so he ordered the POW officers to work alongside the men in violation of the Geneva Convention. Nicholson was having nAnone of that, and he openly refused Saito's demands, goinng so far as to face torture in "the hot box" and other things to force Saito to give in. Eventually, with a deadline fast approaching, Saito relented, and in fact handed the whol project over to the British, who chose a new site for the bridge and worked quite willingly. Saito was shamed to the point of considering suicide, but he first had a Samurai duty to finish the project - by giving in to every request of the British prisoners. There is a rather pathetic scene where the POW's and Saito are holding a meeting and Nicholson rattles off a list of requests to which Saito simply repeats over and over "yes" with a grave, defeated face. In the end the bridge gets built and Allied commandos blow it up, almost being derailed by Nicholson who had forgotten who it was he owed his allegiance. But the point is, this situaation reminds me very much of this government shutdown and the outcome will be much like that in this movie for whoever gives in.

In the past government shutdowns have not been over such core issues. DACA is the key to Democratic supremacy in the coming years, as a memo by Democrat Jennifer Palmiera admitted; DACA is the cornerstone of a future Democratic electorate. Meanwhile Trump had promised his base he would kick the DACA illegals out, and has gone wobbly on that promise. But Chuck Schumer and company are forcing a showdown over this, unwilling to yield even on a few dollars for a border wall to deprive Trump of any sort of victory whatsoever. And Trump and the Republicans have offered a number of compromises. No deal; Schumer is prepared to end the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) rather than give Trump a cent for border security.

It's High Noon, folks, and only one is coming out of this alive.

If Trump caves on this he will be in the position of Saito in Bridge; a permanent yes-man to Schumer and the Democrats and the media. He will wind down his Presidency and end a one-term loser. The Democrats were stupid here, because they backed him into a corner, and anyone with any sense knows you don't back a wild animal (like Trump) into a corner.

If Trump hnolds firm here the Democrats will ultimately take the blame. Trump has the unique position of being able to break them if his party does not panic. Sadly, the GOP believes everything the mainstream media tells them, and they are likely to be the first to blink.

I once saw a nature program about wolves hunting bison in a park in Canada; the wolves - fewer and much smaller - always won against the larger, stronger, and more numerous herbivores by virtue of cunning and patience; they would face the buffalo and wait for one of them to panic. Eventually one of the stupid grazing beasts would turn tail and flee, and the whole herd would follow, allowing the wolves to take down as many of the bison and they wished. Had the buffalo not allowed themselves to panic they would ultimately have won. In fact, had the buffalo turned to the attack they would have trampled the wolves. The GOP is like that; ever terrified of the media and the polls they produce the GOP may make temporary stands but inevitably some coward turns tail and then the Republicans get routed.

That is why Trump needs to be proactive during this shutdown. He needs to go on the offensive against Schumer and company, making the public see that the Democrats care more about some invading aliens than their American constituents.

This really is a showdown, and whoever is left standing will be the winner. Republican control of Congress hinges on this as much as does the Presidency. Like it or not, the fate of the GOP is tied to Trump.

Saul Alinsky - Obama and Hillary Clinton's love - said that often if you push a negative long and hard enough it can break through and become a positive. The GoP never understood this, and initial negativity caused them to surrender early, before the breakthrough. Will Trump do likewise? Will Congress pull the rug out from under him? Only time will tell.

It happened exactly that way when the government shut down under Bill Clinton. Republicans paniced and Clinton won, becoming nigh unto untouchable after that politically. Impeachment failed because the Senate was afraid of Clinton's political power, a power he obtained from his victory in the shutdown.

I suspect Chuck Schumer knows this and he's playing a very dangerous game, hoping to get the President and Congressional Republicans to blink first. It's a measure of desperation, frankly; Schumer knows this nonsense of a "wave" election is balderdash, and he fears becoming irrelevant. It's a hail-mary pass. If Trump and the GOP fall for it they will lose big, and will rightly earn their places in the ashbin of history.

In the end of The Bridge over the River Kwai commandos blow up the bridge, to the sorrow of Nicholson.

The iconic music from Bridge is The Colonel Bogey March, a bird flip by the POW's. It fits with this DACA shutdown here.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:28 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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