March 14, 2021
The Climate Change Bluff
From Lyle Hancock Sr.
I had a dialog with Gavin Schmidt of GISS back in the early days. I found his responses to be way too confident in his models. I suggested to him that models have little to no predictive skills when it comes to non-linear chaotic systems and inquired as to what makes his models so different? In so many words, he told me to go jump off a bridge. It was then that I realized that the lad was a bit prideful and not open to explaining himself or his work.
At the time, I was deeply involved in statistical modeling (still am as I have the time) with considerable professional experience in non-stationary time series models - what the IPCC, Met Office, and others use to analyze the various temperature datasets.
Also, at the time, I wasn't sure where I stood on Global Warming. So as one mathematician to another, I thought I would engage Gav in a discussion of the models, particularly from my viewpoint that the models have very little to no predictive skills so I was curious about why his models had such amazingly accurate predictive skills to two decimal places over many years? I mean, if I could sort out that question, I could tune my models to play the stock market and get very rich while I contemplate burning up and drowning all at the same time.
It was his angry response towards me that tipped me off that maybe his models weren't so predictive, I wasn't going to get rich, and more importantly, I wasn't going to burn up or drown. Thus was the beginning of my becoming a skeptic. (er, realist).
Tim adds:
That's a very good story to tell as it illustrates the problem with the Alamists. I was on the fence on it for a long time myself, until the arrogance and unwillingness to debate of those promoting the theory showed me they really had a losing hand. Anybody who has ever played poker can see a bad bluff like that.You don't become enraged when questioned if you have the facts on your side. You shut down debate when you don't.
I had a dialog with Gavin Schmidt of GISS back in the early days. I found his responses to be way too confident in his models. I suggested to him that models have little to no predictive skills when it comes to non-linear chaotic systems and inquired as to what makes his models so different? In so many words, he told me to go jump off a bridge. It was then that I realized that the lad was a bit prideful and not open to explaining himself or his work.
At the time, I was deeply involved in statistical modeling (still am as I have the time) with considerable professional experience in non-stationary time series models - what the IPCC, Met Office, and others use to analyze the various temperature datasets.
Also, at the time, I wasn't sure where I stood on Global Warming. So as one mathematician to another, I thought I would engage Gav in a discussion of the models, particularly from my viewpoint that the models have very little to no predictive skills so I was curious about why his models had such amazingly accurate predictive skills to two decimal places over many years? I mean, if I could sort out that question, I could tune my models to play the stock market and get very rich while I contemplate burning up and drowning all at the same time.
It was his angry response towards me that tipped me off that maybe his models weren't so predictive, I wasn't going to get rich, and more importantly, I wasn't going to burn up or drown. Thus was the beginning of my becoming a skeptic. (er, realist).
Tim adds:
That's a very good story to tell as it illustrates the problem with the Alamists. I was on the fence on it for a long time myself, until the arrogance and unwillingness to debate of those promoting the theory showed me they really had a losing hand. Anybody who has ever played poker can see a bad bluff like that.You don't become enraged when questioned if you have the facts on your side. You shut down debate when you don't.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:50 AM
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