April 22, 2023

The Cliff Edge

Chester McAteer

US govt debt has gone from $1.2 trillion to $31.4 trillion since 1980.

1980 Debt to GDP = 26%
2023 Debt to GDP = 123%
2040 Debt to GDP = ???

When you recognize a cliff you try to avoid the edge...unless you're the government.

May be an image of text that says 'FRED 32,000,000 Federal Debt: Total Public Debt 28,000,000 24,000,000 Lotds 20,000,000 16,000,000 Mnnts 12,000,000 8,000,000 Q1 1983: 1,244,493 4,000,000 1980 2000 2020 2000 Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury Fiscal Service'


Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 07:39 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 50 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Federal debt as a ratio to GDP is an utterly meaningless statistic. It is analagous to comparing my home mortgage against my employer's revenue. Federal debt as a ration of federal revenue is meaningful, and that formerly was the measure that economists used, until it got too big and scared people. Then they switched to the Debt/GDP, not because it meant anything, but because it was a smaller ratio and was comforting. Now it, too, it to big but they have nowhere else to go.

Posted by: Bill H at April 22, 2023 08:53 AM (Q7br2)

2 Good point Bill.

I suspect Chester knows it too; he's literally a genius, and not easily fooled. I think he is using their own metrics and showing it still fails.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at April 23, 2023 08:52 AM (Q0S7L)

3 but because it was a smaller ratio and was comforting. Now it, too, it to big but they have nowhere else to go.

Posted by: Replica Watches at May 09, 2023 08:29 PM (SUYyh)

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