November 30, 2024
Syrian Civil War Erupts
Timothy Birdnow
Syrian rebels have taken Aleppo as the Syrian army fled from the besieged city.
According to Al Jazeera:
This presents a major escalation and could lead to further destabilization of the region.
Why now? Probably because the Israelis have beaten Hezbollah into submission in Lebanon and continue to pound the Iran-backed terror network. Hezbollah has been a long-time ally of the Baathists of Syria and the Al-Assad family. So Israel has knocked out the southern threat to the rebels. Also, with the Russians having nothing to spare the Assad government is in a weakened position. And then there is the looming spectre of Donald Trump, who is a staunch supporter of Israel but who withdrew aid to Syrian rebels and if they wnt to continue the fight they will have to win it soon, probably. Who knows though; Trump may decide it is better to take out Assad and throw his support behind the rebels.
At any rate this could lead to more problems. The Turks may intervene in this war, for instance. (I suspect that is the hope of the rebels, that Turkey intervene in their favor.) And as the U.S. supports Kurdish separatists, the Turks may decide the time is ripe to clean up the mess that threatens to spill over to their own Kurds.
Iran can ill-afford to let this thing go against their geopolitical ambitions too,and who knows what they will do? The new Ayatollah, Khameni's son, is known to be weak and thus the Revolutionary Council is in charge. These are the guys who want Armageddon so that 12th Imam can finally climb out of the well he fell down and restore the glory of Islam. This is balanced on a knife's edge.
China's position will be anyone's guess. They have stayed out of it by and large, promoting a diplomatic solution (to be brokered by themselves, of course). But they are close allies of Russia and Iran. Their policy could change if the balance of power is seen as shifting in favor of the West.
So we are sitting on a powder-keg.
Syrian rebels have taken Aleppo as the Syrian army fled from the besieged city.
According to Al Jazeera:
The military said on Saturday that dozens of its soldiers had been killed or wounded in fierce battles with "armed terrorist organisations” in the governorates of Aleppo and Idlib over the previous few days and that it was now regrouping, redeploying troops to strengthen its defence lines as it prepared a "counterattack”.
It said that rebel groups had launched "a broad attack from multiple axes on the Aleppo and Idlib fronts”, reporting clashes "over a strip exceeding 100km [60 miles]”.
The army said the rebels had entered large parts of Aleppo but army bombardment had stopped them from establishing fixed positions. It promised to "expel them and restore the control of the state … over the entire city and its countryside”.
It said that rebel groups had launched "a broad attack from multiple axes on the Aleppo and Idlib fronts”, reporting clashes "over a strip exceeding 100km [60 miles]”.
The army said the rebels had entered large parts of Aleppo but army bombardment had stopped them from establishing fixed positions. It promised to "expel them and restore the control of the state … over the entire city and its countryside”.
This presents a major escalation and could lead to further destabilization of the region.
Why now? Probably because the Israelis have beaten Hezbollah into submission in Lebanon and continue to pound the Iran-backed terror network. Hezbollah has been a long-time ally of the Baathists of Syria and the Al-Assad family. So Israel has knocked out the southern threat to the rebels. Also, with the Russians having nothing to spare the Assad government is in a weakened position. And then there is the looming spectre of Donald Trump, who is a staunch supporter of Israel but who withdrew aid to Syrian rebels and if they wnt to continue the fight they will have to win it soon, probably. Who knows though; Trump may decide it is better to take out Assad and throw his support behind the rebels.
At any rate this could lead to more problems. The Turks may intervene in this war, for instance. (I suspect that is the hope of the rebels, that Turkey intervene in their favor.) And as the U.S. supports Kurdish separatists, the Turks may decide the time is ripe to clean up the mess that threatens to spill over to their own Kurds.
Iran can ill-afford to let this thing go against their geopolitical ambitions too,and who knows what they will do? The new Ayatollah, Khameni's son, is known to be weak and thus the Revolutionary Council is in charge. These are the guys who want Armageddon so that 12th Imam can finally climb out of the well he fell down and restore the glory of Islam. This is balanced on a knife's edge.
China's position will be anyone's guess. They have stayed out of it by and large, promoting a diplomatic solution (to be brokered by themselves, of course). But they are close allies of Russia and Iran. Their policy could change if the balance of power is seen as shifting in favor of the West.
So we are sitting on a powder-keg.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
01:31 PM
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1
Let us hope Trump becomes president before the whole region explodes, and that our new SecState is persuasive enough to get things calmed down.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at December 02, 2024 12:38 AM (GbRjY)
2
Amen. We need the adults in the room.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at December 02, 2024 09:18 AM (Fwbwo)
3
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