March 26, 2022
Russia's Failure and Putin
Timothy Birdnow
In a discussion about the troubles plaguing Mr. Putin and his army, Dana Mathewson and I had an interesting discussion which I think worth reproducing:
I say:
I'll admit I am surprised the Russians didn't secure the country by now, but then, when you think about it, they weren't invading a much smaller country (like Georgia)but a nation of sizable population. Ukraine has a population of 43,476,153 making it a little under a third of the population of Russia (at 145,830,647). Ukraine is comfortably larger than the population of Canada at 38,311,500.
The Ukraine is also pretty big from a European perspective, being slightly larger than France.
Western Ukraine had been part of the Hapsburg Empire and so is far more Westernized than the other former Soviet Republics.
And it has many resources that most other countries do not. Food is plentiful, for instance, so starving them out is difficult.
AND they have had considerable technical and military support from the West.
So I guess Putin underestimated them. So did I.
The longer this drags out the harder it will be for Russia to continue; it's costing them huge amounts of money.
But, if Putin is facing a disastrous pullout he will have no choice but to take an act of desperation.
I will say this, no matter if Putin remains in power or not, the Russians will not make the mistake of overestimating their own forces again. They will work diligently to improve their military, I see no way around a new cold war.
And they will no doubt try to assert their power again somewhere else. They hold grudges.
Dana replies:
Tim, I think this whole thing is Putin over-estimating his "stuff." It appears that the Russian Army operates differently from others, and it has done them no favors.
I state:
I suspect Putin probably hollowed out the Russian Army of any decent leadership (much as the Democrats have done with our military). The Soviets could have a strong army because they were always ruthless, and "disappeared" anyone who might present a problem. But Putin came into this as a despot-in-the-making and he had to get rid of anyone who might present a challenge to his personal power. As far as I know he didn't use the old Soviet way of sending them to gulags or shooting them, but rather used attrition to retire the more politically unreliable ones. The result would be yes men telling him what he wanted to hear.
Hitler, a johnnie come lately tyrant, had much the same problem. He fired any general in the Wehrmacht who didn't approve of HIS plans and the result was eventually the Allies out-generaled the Germans.
But with Putin it's worse because he has real fears of a coup against him. The Wehrmacht never would have done that, what with the Prussian traditions.
In a discussion about the troubles plaguing Mr. Putin and his army, Dana Mathewson and I had an interesting discussion which I think worth reproducing:
I say:
I'll admit I am surprised the Russians didn't secure the country by now, but then, when you think about it, they weren't invading a much smaller country (like Georgia)but a nation of sizable population. Ukraine has a population of 43,476,153 making it a little under a third of the population of Russia (at 145,830,647). Ukraine is comfortably larger than the population of Canada at 38,311,500.
The Ukraine is also pretty big from a European perspective, being slightly larger than France.
Western Ukraine had been part of the Hapsburg Empire and so is far more Westernized than the other former Soviet Republics.
And it has many resources that most other countries do not. Food is plentiful, for instance, so starving them out is difficult.
AND they have had considerable technical and military support from the West.
So I guess Putin underestimated them. So did I.
The longer this drags out the harder it will be for Russia to continue; it's costing them huge amounts of money.
But, if Putin is facing a disastrous pullout he will have no choice but to take an act of desperation.
I will say this, no matter if Putin remains in power or not, the Russians will not make the mistake of overestimating their own forces again. They will work diligently to improve their military, I see no way around a new cold war.
And they will no doubt try to assert their power again somewhere else. They hold grudges.
Dana replies:
Tim, I think this whole thing is Putin over-estimating his "stuff." It appears that the Russian Army operates differently from others, and it has done them no favors.
I state:
I suspect Putin probably hollowed out the Russian Army of any decent leadership (much as the Democrats have done with our military). The Soviets could have a strong army because they were always ruthless, and "disappeared" anyone who might present a problem. But Putin came into this as a despot-in-the-making and he had to get rid of anyone who might present a challenge to his personal power. As far as I know he didn't use the old Soviet way of sending them to gulags or shooting them, but rather used attrition to retire the more politically unreliable ones. The result would be yes men telling him what he wanted to hear.
Hitler, a johnnie come lately tyrant, had much the same problem. He fired any general in the Wehrmacht who didn't approve of HIS plans and the result was eventually the Allies out-generaled the Germans.
But with Putin it's worse because he has real fears of a coup against him. The Wehrmacht never would have done that, what with the Prussian traditions.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
07:04 AM
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1
I still feel that with the civilian casualty figures as low as they are for a full scale invasion(a little over 1000) that they are going slow but sure.
What gets me is the drive on Kiev. The Russians were handed a massive defeat at the hands of the Finns prior to WW2 using a single road w/o securing their flanks. Out of an entire battalion only 45 came back and the Finns were outnumbered and outgunned.Unless the Russians were using the drive to pull Ukrainian forces away from the areas Putin wanted. I can only speculate as to what is what.
One other point to add about refugees. Ukraine was shedding people faster the Ill.,Calif.and NY combined. A lot of the refugees were probably already making plans to get out and fence setters got the reason to go. I wonder what % they are in refugee numbers.
One other point to add about refugees. Ukraine was shedding people faster the Ill.,Calif.and NY combined. A lot of the refugees were probably already making plans to get out and fence setters got the reason to go. I wonder what % they are in refugee numbers.
Posted by: Mike at March 26, 2022 06:26 PM (QfrNp)
2
Speaking of the Wehrmacht, I'd read that if Hitler's "adventures" in the Sudetenland and other similar things hadn't worked out, the "old guard" of the German Army would have gotten rid of him.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 26, 2022 09:24 PM (551jX)
3
Heres a Ukrainian reporting on weekly events inside Ukraine. This last post although I question his casualty figures is pretty interesting in how this Russian army today is so much like that of early WW2. https://oldafsarge.blogspot.com/2022/03/guest-post-ukraine-view-from-poland_01685165760.html
Posted by: Mike at March 27, 2022 01:15 AM (ozNHL)
4
Mike, my brother Brian is a professional historian emphasizing on the WWII to modern era and HE said exactly the same thing. He said this is strikingly similar to the Winter War.
He also pointed out that there is an old saying among historians that says Russians never win abroad and always win at home. They are not good at invading places, but are excellent at defending their territory.
Given Biden has now twice called for removing Putin (despite some rather artless attempts at cleanup by his underlings who are claiming we aren't seeking regime change) certainly the Russians now have the impression we may invade. And if they think that they will double down on this war.
He also pointed out that there is an old saying among historians that says Russians never win abroad and always win at home. They are not good at invading places, but are excellent at defending their territory.
Given Biden has now twice called for removing Putin (despite some rather artless attempts at cleanup by his underlings who are claiming we aren't seeking regime change) certainly the Russians now have the impression we may invade. And if they think that they will double down on this war.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 28, 2022 08:32 AM (VVMmP)
5
Perhaps Dana, but the Wehrmacht was so professional that I wonder. They pretty much followed the tradition of obedience to civil authority, and the Germans are nothing if not sticklers for protocol. But you may be right.
Some of them tried to remove him later, of course, but by then it was obvious he was leading them to doom.
Some of them tried to remove him later, of course, but by then it was obvious he was leading them to doom.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 28, 2022 08:35 AM (VVMmP)
6
In a discussion about the troubles plaguing Mr. Putin and his army, Dana Mathewson and I had an interesting discussion which I think worth reproducing:
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7
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