Birdnow's Aviary

June 03, 2023

Recession

Timothy Birdnow

It's much worse than we thought.

The Biden Administration revised the economic numbers - all down, way down.

Recession coming? I have no doubt it's already here.

The Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised a wage growth estimate by a massive margin, showing real wages actually declined in the fourth quarter of 2022, the agency reported on Thursday.

In March, the BLS previously reported a fourth-quarter increase of 4.9% for hourly compensation in nonfarm businesses, but updated it to a decrease of 0.7% on Thursday, accordingto its revised Productivity and Costs report. At the same time hourly wages fell, inflation rose, leading to a 4.7% decline in "real hourly compensation, which takes into account consumer prices,” according to the BLS.

The BLS had previously estimated that real hourly compensation increased by 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the revised report.

"The driver of the revision to 4th quarter data on compensation per hour is the revision to source data on employee compensation for 2022 Q4, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on May 25th,” the BLS told the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The referenced report

states that "wages and salaries are now estimated to have increased $53.0 billion in the fourth quarter, a downward revision of $135.4 billion.”

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 01:27 PM | Comments (4) | Add Comment
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1 The BLS is highly adept at obfuscating the state of the economy. The media is complicit, cheering wildly about the Employment Report's statement of 339,000 new jobs, but totally ignoring the contradiction of the Household Report and its citation of 310,000 fewer employed people. Further, all numbers are "seasonally adjusted," using an algorithm which no one outside the BLS knows, but which fiddles the numbers so that they say whatever the BLS wants them to say. Finally, after being announced and cheered one month, they are drastically "adjusted" downward the next month without fanfare and nobody noticing.

Posted by: Bill H at June 04, 2023 08:16 AM (Q7br2)

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Posted by: Al Noor Orchard at June 05, 2023 04:58 AM (uVds7)

3 Correctamundo Bill. The household survey gives the real picture of unemployment - and it's high. That's why they aren't using those numbers at all.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at June 05, 2023 06:56 AM (ApesF)

4 Thanks for sharing this article. As I understand, the revised economic numbers by the Biden Administration indicate a decline in real wages, a rise in inflation, and potential concerns about a recession, based on updated data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. | Removal[url]services[url]near[url]Port St Lucie[url].

Posted by: Becky at June 06, 2023 06:26 AM (R3fgl)

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