Prematue Coup Against trump

Timothy Birdnow

Nate Silver, polling guru and object of worship for the Left, has gotten into a knock-down, drag-out fight with an idiot named Ryan Grim at the Huffington Post who took umbrage with Silver's prediction of a close race.

First, Grim made the following complaint

"By monkeying around with the numbers like this, Silver is making a mockery of the very forecasting industry that he popularized,”

"I get why Silver wants to hedge. It’s not easy to sit here and tell you that Clinton has a 98 percent chance of winning. Everything inside us screams out that life is too full of uncertainty, that being so sure is just a fantasy. But that’s what the numbers say. What is the point of all the data entry, all the math, all the modeling, if when the moment of truth comes we throw our hands up and say, hey, anything can happen. If that’s how we feel, let’s scrap the entire political forecasting industry.

Silver’s guess that the race is up for grabs might be a completely reasonable assertion ― but it’s the stuff of punditry, not mathematical forecasting. about Silver's methodology"

End excerpt.

Silver gives Trump a 35.2% chance of winning the election. The Huffpo - and this crazy Ryan Grim - give Trump 2%.

Based on what? Anyone who bothers to look at the methodology of these "Hillary landslide" polls knows Democrats are being way oversampled; most polls are using turnout numbers from 2008, which was a completely different election. The fact is, Hillary is disliked by her own party, and many Bernie supporters aren't going to show at the polls. Trump is disliked by his party's elites, but his supporters are far more enthusiastic, and Trump clearly has a solid chance of winning in many of the necessary battleground states. Only a fool would call this for Hillary this early.

And Silver agrees:

" The reason we adjust polls for the national trend is because **that’s what works best emperically**. It’s not a subjective assumption.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016

It’s wrong to show Clinton with a 6-point lead (as per HuffPo) when **almost no national poll shows that**. Doesn’t reflect the data.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016

Every model makes assumptions but we actually test ours based on the evidence. Some of the other models are barley even empirical.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016

That's what makes a model a useful scientific & journalistic tool. It's a way to understand how elections work. Not just about the results.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016

The problem is that we're doing this in a world where people—like @ryangrim—don't actually give a shit about evidence and proof.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 5, 2016

End excerpts.

So one must ask why this Huffpo fellow is so exercised with Silver, who, contrary to this fellow's assertion, has no love for Donald Trump. Why is this guy so mad?

Because the Left is trying to set the stage for a political coup if Trump wins. They are going to argue that the Trump campaign, in association with the Russians, stole the election. They are trumpeting teh polls - and the polls have been all over the map - to not just disspirit the GOP but to make the case that the election is already over.

Doubt me? Wikileaks showed that this was in fact the Clinton strategy:



And Democrat pollster Pat Caddell also pointed out an unprecedented bias in the polls for Clinton.

What people like Grim and the Huffpo crowd are doing is setting the table to challenge Trump's validity as President if he wins. This is one of the dirtiest tricks I've seen from the Left, and I've seen many dirty tricks from them over the years. It's an attempted premature coup.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:10 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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