September 14, 2025
Poll Dance
Timothy Birdnow
How do you use polls to keep conservatives off the ballot?
Read how it's done [linnk=https://intellectualconservative.com/articles/comprehensive-analysis-decimates-a-poll-of-the-az-gop-gubernatorial-race-revealing-the-bias-towards-the-rino]here.
Polls are full of little tricks to get the results the pollsters want. Here are some of them:
How do you use polls to keep conservatives off the ballot?
Read how it's done [linnk=https://intellectualconservative.com/articles/comprehensive-analysis-decimates-a-poll-of-the-az-gop-gubernatorial-race-revealing-the-bias-towards-the-rino]here.
Polls are full of little tricks to get the results the pollsters want. Here are some of them:
● Supporter Contradiction: The poll shows Robson has more overall support, yet Biggs outperformed her on key Republican issues such as border enforcement, social conservatism, pro-life positions, government spending and Trump loyalty.
● Weighting Error: Using general election weights instead of GOP primary weights likely underrepresented older and more Republican-leaning voters. This misalignment shifted the results in Robson's favor by more than 10 points.
● Party Label Bias: Robson was clearly labeled a "Republican," while Biggs was not. Research shows asymmetry sways results by presenting one candidate as the default partisan choice.
● Additional Concerns: The GOP subsample included only 341 weighted respondents, too small to yield reliable estimates. Also, the results conflicted with NPI’s own May 2025 poll: Biggs expanded his lead on Republican issues by August, yet the margin against him grew wider.
● Weighting Error: Using general election weights instead of GOP primary weights likely underrepresented older and more Republican-leaning voters. This misalignment shifted the results in Robson's favor by more than 10 points.
● Party Label Bias: Robson was clearly labeled a "Republican," while Biggs was not. Research shows asymmetry sways results by presenting one candidate as the default partisan choice.
● Additional Concerns: The GOP subsample included only 341 weighted respondents, too small to yield reliable estimates. Also, the results conflicted with NPI’s own May 2025 poll: Biggs expanded his lead on Republican issues by August, yet the margin against him grew wider.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:05 AM
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