Diane Kimura

A University of Pennsylvania statistics and data science professor has examined the data released by the Gaza Health Ministry and concluded that the death toll appears 'statistically impossible.'

"The daily reported casualty count over this period averages 270 plus or minus about 15 per cent,” Wyner writes. "There should be days with twice the average or more and others with half or less. Perhaps what is happening is the Gaza ministry is releasing fake daily numbers that vary too little because they do not have a clear understanding of the behaviour of naturally occurring numbers.”

As second point of evidence, Wyner examines the rate of child casualties compared to that of women, arguing that the variation should track between the two groups.

"This is because the daily variation in death counts is caused by the variation in the number of strikes on residential buildings and tunnels which should result in considerable variability in the totals but less variation in the percentage of deaths across groups,” Wyner writes. "This is a basic statistical fact about chance variability.

"Consequently, on the days with many women casualties there should be large numbers of children casualties, and on the days when just a few women are reported to have been killed, just a few children should be reported.”

The lack of correlation between the number of children reported to have been killed and the number of women reported to have been killed presents circumstantial evidence that the numbers are not real, according to Wyner.

Hamas casualty numbers are ‘statistically impossible’, says data science professor
thejc.com

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