April 28, 2025
One Nuclear War Can Ruin Your Day
Timothy Birdnow
Tyler Durden at Zerohedge analyzes the risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
FTA:
While a nuclear exchange would probably be limited (as long as China stayed out, and the Russians too) it could still cause environmental damage and would seriously disrupt supply chains around the world. There won't be a "nuclear winter" as that concept has been solidly disproven (even though the Left keeps trying to bring it back) there might be a nuclear autumn. The Gang Green should like that! Fewer people on Earth and a cooler climate!
Any way you slice it this would be bad, very bad.
Tyler Durden at Zerohedge analyzes the risk of nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
FTA:
Hostilities between India and Pakistan have intensified after a deadly militant attack in the contested Kashmir region killed twenty-six people. New Delhi has blamed its neighbor for the attack, but Islamabad has denied any involvement. The incident has sparked a series of smaller military engagements along the Indian border and the Indian government has ordered all Pakistani visitors in India to leave by April 29th. It has also threatened to block or divert water supplies from the Indus River system, which support 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture.
The Indus Water Treaty – which was brokered by the World Bank in September 1960 – determined the rights and obligations of Pakistan and India concerning the use of waters of the Indus River system. The agreement has stood the test of time and has long been hailed as a rare example of cooperation between the two ideologically opposed nations. India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty is being called an "act of war” by Pakistan.
Geopolitical strategists say the move "calculated” – Any diversion of Pakistan’s water supply could trigger famine and civil unrest in the already unstable region. Internal strife has been simmering after Pakistan’s current government arrested former Prime Minister Imran Khan on charges of corruption. The arrest, perhaps not coincidentally, was executed not long after Khan accused a high-ranking Inter Service Intelligence official of planning an assassination attempt
Khan’s arrest led to 2023 Pakistani protests by his supporters throughout the country. The nation has been in political turmoil ever since, on top of an already crushing inflation crisis. Loss of water resources would likely send the country into immediate collapse. While India does not have the infrastructure to block the rivers completely, they do have the ability to greatly reduce the flows to Pakistan, or divert much of the water to storage areas. They have also threatened to stop sharing vital flow data that could lead to a lack of flood warnings, thus destroying large swaths of farmland.
The existential threat this development represents to the Pakistani government opens the door to otherwise unthinkable retaliation. Nukes are indeed on the table. Analysts say Pakistan’s use of phrase "complete spectrum of national power means Pakistan can go to any limit, including the use of nuclear weapons.”
At the very least, Pakistan’s military will not hesitate to strike any infrastructure used by India to stem the water from the Indus rivers. Another factor that does not bode well is India’s overt superiority in terms of military power. India’s active military and reserve forces are twice the size of Pakistan’s. They have twice the air power, twice the tanks, a far larger navy which boasts a number of nuclear submarines.
The strength difference might compel Pakistan to use nukes immediately as a way to even the fight, or ensure the mutual destruction of India in a war Pakistan knows it will lose. In other words, the risk of a nuclear exchange is extraordinarily high.
The Indus Water Treaty – which was brokered by the World Bank in September 1960 – determined the rights and obligations of Pakistan and India concerning the use of waters of the Indus River system. The agreement has stood the test of time and has long been hailed as a rare example of cooperation between the two ideologically opposed nations. India’s unilateral suspension of the treaty is being called an "act of war” by Pakistan.
Geopolitical strategists say the move "calculated” – Any diversion of Pakistan’s water supply could trigger famine and civil unrest in the already unstable region. Internal strife has been simmering after Pakistan’s current government arrested former Prime Minister Imran Khan on charges of corruption. The arrest, perhaps not coincidentally, was executed not long after Khan accused a high-ranking Inter Service Intelligence official of planning an assassination attempt
Khan’s arrest led to 2023 Pakistani protests by his supporters throughout the country. The nation has been in political turmoil ever since, on top of an already crushing inflation crisis. Loss of water resources would likely send the country into immediate collapse. While India does not have the infrastructure to block the rivers completely, they do have the ability to greatly reduce the flows to Pakistan, or divert much of the water to storage areas. They have also threatened to stop sharing vital flow data that could lead to a lack of flood warnings, thus destroying large swaths of farmland.
The existential threat this development represents to the Pakistani government opens the door to otherwise unthinkable retaliation. Nukes are indeed on the table. Analysts say Pakistan’s use of phrase "complete spectrum of national power means Pakistan can go to any limit, including the use of nuclear weapons.”
At the very least, Pakistan’s military will not hesitate to strike any infrastructure used by India to stem the water from the Indus rivers. Another factor that does not bode well is India’s overt superiority in terms of military power. India’s active military and reserve forces are twice the size of Pakistan’s. They have twice the air power, twice the tanks, a far larger navy which boasts a number of nuclear submarines.
The strength difference might compel Pakistan to use nukes immediately as a way to even the fight, or ensure the mutual destruction of India in a war Pakistan knows it will lose. In other words, the risk of a nuclear exchange is extraordinarily high.
While a nuclear exchange would probably be limited (as long as China stayed out, and the Russians too) it could still cause environmental damage and would seriously disrupt supply chains around the world. There won't be a "nuclear winter" as that concept has been solidly disproven (even though the Left keeps trying to bring it back) there might be a nuclear autumn. The Gang Green should like that! Fewer people on Earth and a cooler climate!
Any way you slice it this would be bad, very bad.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
07:14 AM
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Yes, it would be A. Very. Bad. Thing!
And while I think the Indians could be counted on to keep things under control from their side, I can't say that I would trust the Pakis.
And while I think the Indians could be counted on to keep things under control from their side, I can't say that I would trust the Pakis.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at April 28, 2025 11:28 PM (pdDZ2)
2
You are absolutely correct Dana. The Indians won't do a first strike but Pakistan may well.
They need the water the Indians are diverting and they may decide it was time to make many martyrs for Allah.
I'm not really how the Trump Administration needs to deal with this. If these were two ordinary countries I'd say it was best to just stay out of it, but this is a very dangerous situation for the whole world. We need to do something to ease tensions over there.
They need the water the Indians are diverting and they may decide it was time to make many martyrs for Allah.
I'm not really how the Trump Administration needs to deal with this. If these were two ordinary countries I'd say it was best to just stay out of it, but this is a very dangerous situation for the whole world. We need to do something to ease tensions over there.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at April 29, 2025 06:31 AM (R85Up)
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