November 25, 2019
No Impeachment in the Near Term
Timothy Birdnow
Warner Todd Houston sends us his latest:
Despite Claims, Looks Like Democrats Will Fail to Impeach Trump This Year
Naturally; the political timing of an impeachment now would be terrible.
Look, the Democrats have two ways to go here; either they can actually try to remove the President or they can simply use impeachment as a tool to bloody him up for the next election. As of now there is no chance for a conviction.
So, if they move forward now they risk not only losing the fight but having a backlash in Trump's favor. They cannot appear to have lost prior to the election. They need to either bring this to a head just before the election OR keep it as their nuclear bomb if and when Trump is re-elected. They can investigate and leak and do more damage in the meantime.
To push forward with impeachment now is dangerous for them. They will have no issue to run on and Trump will appear to be a man maligned (which indeed he is) by angry partisans.
I believre they will keep this as a cloud over Trump's head and await developments. They will be able to say at election time "under investigation for impeachment" and hope the public will be soured on Mr. Trump. It's a far better strategy than impeaching and losing their hole card.
Warner Todd Houston sends us his latest:
Despite Claims, Looks Like Democrats Will Fail to Impeach Trump This Year
Naturally; the political timing of an impeachment now would be terrible.
Look, the Democrats have two ways to go here; either they can actually try to remove the President or they can simply use impeachment as a tool to bloody him up for the next election. As of now there is no chance for a conviction.
So, if they move forward now they risk not only losing the fight but having a backlash in Trump's favor. They cannot appear to have lost prior to the election. They need to either bring this to a head just before the election OR keep it as their nuclear bomb if and when Trump is re-elected. They can investigate and leak and do more damage in the meantime.
To push forward with impeachment now is dangerous for them. They will have no issue to run on and Trump will appear to be a man maligned (which indeed he is) by angry partisans.
I believre they will keep this as a cloud over Trump's head and await developments. They will be able to say at election time "under investigation for impeachment" and hope the public will be soured on Mr. Trump. It's a far better strategy than impeaching and losing their hole card.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
08:20 AM
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Probably right, but it will definitely backfire. To have "a president under process of impeachment" during the peak of election would mean that the definitive process would have been ongoing for a full year, and that is much too long. It would sway sympathy to the president in large numbers. Poll numbers on the impeachment are already beginning to swing against the Democrats, and that will only get worse for them.
Posted by: Bill H at November 25, 2019 09:13 AM (vMiSr)
2
I agree, Bill; I think they have made a tactical mistake. I think they assumed Trump would quit after the first six months, and when he refused they kept stoking the fire, hoping to drive his numbers down. Now they are holding impeachment hearings hoping for that same outcome - only it didn't work. I suspect they are now backed into a corner. But what can they do? They have to see this thing out or they will get creamed.
I suspect Pelosi does know this, or at least suspects it.
This situation reminds me of Robert E. Lees description of slavery "it's like holding a wolf by the ears. You don't like it but you're afraid to let go."
I suspect Pelosi does know this, or at least suspects it.
This situation reminds me of Robert E. Lees description of slavery "it's like holding a wolf by the ears. You don't like it but you're afraid to let go."
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at November 25, 2019 10:59 AM (TeYnN)
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