July 24, 2026
The risks extend beyond health. Many island communities are already dealing with climate pressures, including rising seas, water shortages and extreme weather, meaning increased heat could add another challenge to daily life. As such, the team warns that some islands could experience conditions that become increasingly difficult for people to safely work, travel and spend time outdoors without adaptation measures.
AbstractExtreme humid heat is projected to increase markedly by the end of the century, particularly in the tropics. Yet, the case of small islands is ambiguous because the available studies are based on coarse global climate models (GCMs) that ignore them. Here, bias-corrected GCMs at weather station sites are used to assess present and future extreme humid heat conditions on various tropical islands. Levels of humid heat are estimated with the Heat Index (HI) combining temperature and humidity. Extreme humid heat intensity is projected to reach particularly dangerous levels by the end of the century, with higher HI values for islands located closer to the equator. Longer humid heatwaves are also notably projected to increase in frequency, with more pronounced increases equatorward, because of the lower seasonal variability of HI. Such severe conditions threaten the lives of millions of island inhabitants across the tropics.
Plain Language SummaryUnder warm conditions, heat stress to the human body is stronger for higher humidity. Previous research has shown that although northern hemisphere mid- and high latitudes are projected to warm faster than elsewhere, humid heat over continents is expected to be most pronounced in the tropics. Unfortunately, the global climate models typically used in humid heat studies are too coarse to distinguish small islands. In this paper, such models are statistically combined with weather station data to obtain projections of extreme humid heat events and humid heatwaves in various tropical islands, covering different oceanic basins and latitudes. There, the response of humid heat to global warming is found to be similar to that over continents, with a faster increase toward dangerous heat stress levels for islands located closer to the equator. Our results underline that projected humid heat conditions are an existential threat for millions of island inhabitants across the tropics.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:18 AM
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Posted by: Bill H at July 24, 2026 11:16 PM (FRG6e)
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 25, 2026 12:59 PM (oflqW)
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