The concept of the "Greenhouse Effect” demonstrates a misunderstandin g of how Earth’s average surface temperature is achieved. The energy balance of the oceans, and consequently the entire earth, are related primarily to the upper and lower thermostatic limits on ocean surface temperature. The area of 30C warm pools expand and contract in response to variation in the top of atmosphere insolation due to the orbital eccentricity combined with the extent of water surface exposed more directly to the sun. Sea ice expands and contracts in reverse to the warm pools but to reduce heat loss from water below the ice due to the low thermal conductivity of the sea ice. The temperature of the ocean water surface ranges from minus 2C (271K) to 30C (303K). It should be no surprise that the average surface temperature of the globe is 14C (574/2=287K) given the distribution of water having equatorial dominance over polar extent causing average ocean surface temperature higher than 14C and average elevation of land at 800m with more land at higher latitudes than equatorial resulting in average land temperature being slightly less than 14C.

Climate models are based on a flawed assumption. Until they can replicate the actual physics of deep convection tightly linked to surface temperature rather than the naive parameterisatio n of clouds they will remain nothing more than extended weather models with useful predictive ability of a few days.

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