October 02, 2026
A nuclear war is not going to start because everyone agrees that they want one to happen. Rather, a nuclear war will start because someone decides that the next escalation will still be manageable. At this moment leaders all over the world are engaged in a very foolish game of brinksmanship. They are all calculating how close to the edge they can go without falling over. In such an environment, it will only take one very stupid mistake to set off a chain of events that nobody will be able to control. We are now closer to nuclear war than we have ever been in our entire history, and that is a very dangerous place to be.
Most Americans do not realize that a military conflict between Russia and our allies in Europe could literally erupt at any time, and recently there have been some very alarming incidents…
"We must understand that the moment when nothing can be changed can come very quickly and unexpectedly for everyone. The logic of escalation and increasingly harsh retaliatory measures is leading to a fatal point of no return,”
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:01 AM
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Posted by: Mike at October 02, 2026 07:47 PM (r7WVt)
And so did the Second -- differently, and with two different countries pounding their chests until we had what historian Victor Davis Hanson refers to as the Second World Wars (plural) in his great book with the same title.
If we should ever get to WW III, I imagine we'll do the same; look around and say "How the hell did we get ourselves into this fine mess?"
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at October 02, 2026 11:19 PM (1KBQw)
Posted by: Mike at October 03, 2026 06:38 AM (r7WVt)
On the other hand Putin still has the support of the majority of Russians I am convinced, and for the reasons I cited. They were very angry at the treatment they received after the Cold War, but more importantly they feel threatened - Russia is akin to Texas to them, at least in their minds. We would never have allowed the Soviets into Texas back in the day. And as I say, they freak out when a military force gets that close. Russia as a territory is hard to defend, with no natural barriers. Anyone can and have just strolled in, mostly from the Steppe but from Europe too.
Another thing to understand about Russians is they are legalistic. We moved the border of NATO up to their border and even into the Baltic States but we did not make any security agreements with Ukraine. We did verbally promise to defend them and had given them security "assurances" in the Budapest Memorandum, but that was not a formal treaty passed by the Senate and it was not a guarantee. Russia broke it (after roughly thirty years) but while I can't say for sure I suspect they simply withdrew from it; that's how they think and most such agreements are cancellable. At any rate the Clinton Administration, which negotiated the Budapest Memorandum, was quite specific in using the world "assurances" which in diplomat speech means it would fall short of actual military involvement in an invasion.
So I suspect Putin figured he was following the letter of the agreement and that is very Russian of him. He also claims that he had verbal assurances from the West that there would be no expansion of NATO into the former warsaw Pact.If true (and I suspect it was; we also promised not to reunify Germany verbally but did it) the Russians had a legitimate beef. Ukraine wanted to join NATO, there is no question of that. And since the Baltic states got in, the Russians had good reason to suspect that would happen.
George Kennan would never have made the mistake of expanding NATO so close to Russia.
We're still using Kennan's containment strategy on the Russian, and continued to do so after the fall of the Soviet Union, which to the Russians showed hostile intent; it was this policy in the first place that had wrought the economic destruction in the eyes of the Russian People (it was actually Communism that did it but the Russians blame this as much) so they believed the West was playing the long game with the intent of destroying them. It's just how they think.
Mike, that was a great comment and it helped me flesh out my thinking on this.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at October 03, 2026 08:07 AM (oflqW)
Rats! The editor ate my reply to you. Teach me to write it in the editor and not on Notepad first!
Anyway I agree. Most wars these days are stumbled into, not planned out. WWWI, for instance, saw a series of incidents that led to it. I won't go on about the start of the war (which is ground well covered) but will say this; the Kaiser provoked America by sending a note to Mexico promising to aid them in taking the American Southwest if they came into the war on his side - a ridiculously bad idea since the U.S. was still not in the war. This inflamed the public even more than the Lusitania, frankly, but we rarely hear about it. One mistake after another led to ruin.
And we haven't had really good war in a long time. Little ones in places like Iraq, sure, but not a big old knock down drag out. Europe is bored. They've enjoyed their quasi-socialism, been supported and protected by the U.S., and life has been easy, pleasant, and dull. Mankind usually starts a war when the public is bored; it's how we are wired. And the elites in Europe want to reduce their surplus population anyway and divert attention from their many failures like illegal aliens. So they have ginned this up to distract the public, as wars are often fought to do. They don't want to help US in Iran because that is our fight, they figure, even though it is being waged in no small part to open Hormuz FOR THEM; we don't need the oil from there.
I think the horrors of a major war have been forgotten. Robert E. Lee famously stated "it is good war is so terrible lest we grow too fond of it". It is the human pastime. And we haven't had a real hum-dinger in a long time. But this one will be the worst ever and it is possible nobody will survive it. Be careful what you wish for.
I remember an old recruitment poster from Nathan Bedford Forrest to get young men to join his irregulars in the Civil War. It said "want to have a heap of fun and kill Yankees while you're at it? Come Join up today". He emphasized the fun of being a soldier, which has always had an appeal to bored farm kids all over the world, through history. Octavius grew up on a farm and he left to join his Uncle Julius in battle. We all know Octavius as Caesar Augustus, of course. He would rather fight rebels and barbarians with swords than spend another minute on the farm. War is exciting, glamorous, but in the end the fate of a soldier is to suffer and if need be die. When you get into a real scrape your attitude may sour quite a bit toward it.
I think Europe has forgotten what they feared just a generation ago. It could cost us all dearly.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at October 03, 2026 08:37 AM (oflqW)
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