May 20, 2022

La Nina Returns - to Freak Out Alarmists

Richard Cronin

La Niña conditions predicted to persist thru 2022/2023.

El Niños provide shearing winds over the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, suppressing hurricanes. The La Niña does the opposite, so you can plan on a greater number of Atlantic hurricanes, as was the case last summer. Queue the alarmists to freak out.

"A stronger high-pressure area is found over the northeastern United States as we have seen in the La Nina signal” ( Note - The high pressure center will serve to block any hurricane landfalls in this region).

"Most of the western half of the United States is under some level of drought conditions. The driest conditions prevail in the southern and northwestern United States.” ( Note - The alarmists will freak out — again).

In summary, we will have weather.

Steven Yaskell adds:

One of the dopiest troubles in the sun-earth relation is a weird correlation between low solar activity (less sunspots) and "stalls" in the west-to-east Earth Coriolis wind and weather current flow across the planet. When the Pacific Trades don't move too well you get things apparently inexplicable like La Ninas that stubbornly hold on. This sets up (but is either not, or is just a partial cause of) a one-two punch from south to north/north to south weather patterns dropping into/creeping up into/ mid latitudinal zones, alternately, "weather patterns being held in place" over such zones, since the PTWZ has a "stall." This means it rains and drowns one zone whilst burning the zone right next to it up. It was recorded as being very much the case in the Maunder Minimum in the late 1600s for example. Gravity wave feedbacks were talked about once as a mechanism explaining away meteorological responses to solar activity. The premise was that energy generated in the troposphere by meteorogical phenomena propages upward due to gravitational waves. (Hines:1974, and Hines and Halevvy:1975,1977). Under assumed situations the upper atmosphere will reflect those waves back downward, to interfere with the original source phenomenon – for the beneficial or the destructive - whichever be the case. If beneficial ("constructive” ) meteorological phenomena would be amplified, somehow. That is, the upper atmosphere can be considered to have modulated the tropospheric event. All this since it has been known for a very long time that the sun controls the "upper atmosphere" (6,000 miles up especially but all the way down to the lower stratosphere via the ionosphere). So if the response there is such that the gravitational wave reflection properties in the upper atmosphere are altered, there’s some indirect influence of solar activity on the tropospheric event.Hines (1973) suggested that the energy’s origin is perhaps inside the tropospheric phenomena – this, in order to explain observed correlations between geomagnetic activity and the consequent weather. The energy in this case pushes upward into the ionospheric sac producing changes leading to magnetic flux. This proved untenable.
Then they tried aligning this with Earth's magnetic sector boundary passage (which happens every four days, with polarity reversals). Hines and Halevvy (1975:1977) proposed that the solar influence would be a modulation of the "meteorological noise" that would occur in any event. Rises and declines in the vorticity area index (VAI) – literally, the rises and falls of large turbulent earth-weather storms – may be shifted in time due to phase modulations caused by solar influences. (Since this time, has ANY physical explanation been attempted to show how this phase modulation comes about? I wonder.)
A theoretical argument was ventured from this time, in the absence of any further progress (I wonder and hazard). This would be King et al (1977) and Volland (1977a & b) suggesting that increased oscillations of planetary standing waves would strengthen the upward propagating waves – and the process would then be visible in the vorticity area index (VAI).

Also, there's Earth atmospheric pressure or, what’s in a solar constant? – Rossby Waves & other fun stuff. King (1977) showed that longitudinal and latitudinal standing planetary waves (that oscillate but do not propagate) exist in atmospheric pressure at earth’s surface and up to the 500 millibar (mb) level. Such oscillations and wave amplitudes are in harmony with the 11 year (Schwabe [sunspot] Cycle) and the 27-day monthly solar rotation. Don't ask me for much more detail on this: I have none.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:30 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
Post contains 725 words, total size 5 kb.

1 Weather or not...

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at May 20, 2022 11:33 AM (5O9A0)

2

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at May 21, 2022 08:16 AM (UDZK8)

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Posted by: Kanpur Matka at September 23, 2022 03:34 AM (8kBxB)

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