Birdnow's Aviary

August 07, 2022

It's Where the People Live Stupid!

Kim Rogalin

University of Guelph economics professor Ross McKitrick says Americans have contributed to the increasing damage caused by hurricanes, not by burning fossil fuels for energy and any spurious connection to climate change, but because people are increasingly moving to the coasts, leaving increasing numbers of them (and their property) at risk of harm when hurricanes make landfall. "The formation of an Atlantic cyclone is a weather event, not a climate event,â€ McKitrick writes: "Hurricanes existed long before humans emitted [greenhouse gases]. A â€˜climate eventâ€™ would be a multi-decadal change in their major characteristics . But this has not been observed.â€

In 1950 the South Atlantic and Gulf states of Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, South Carolina, and Texasâ€”hurricane alleyâ€”had 12.3% of the U.S. population. A group of northern states "with four seasons and virtually no hurricane riskâ€â€” Massachusetts, Michigan Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin, and Nebraskaâ€”also had 12.3% of the U.S. population. By 2015, the Gulf and South Atlantic states, which from 1950 experienced a population growth rate double the national average, comprised 21% of the U.S. population. The population of the northern states fell to 9.3% of the U.S. population. Apparently a large part of the U.S. population decided it prefers living in locales with a warmer but more hazardous climate to colder locations lacking beaches. Government policies exacerbate this coastal migration by subsidizing hurricane and flood insurance policies. Taxpayer-financ ed disaster relief lessens the personal costs to people who move to, and rebuild in, hurricane- and flood-prone areas.

Meanwhile, there has been no long-term change in global hurricane activity. In fact, there has been a 50% decrease in major hurricanes (Class 3 or above) making landfall in the United States over the past 80 years. We have not seen anything to indicate weâ€™re in an unprecedented time of more hurricanes, stronger hurricanes, if you understand how to read the historical record. Many factors beyond ocean and air temperatures drive hurricane formation, strength, and longevity. We have years where the temperature in the Atlantic [has been] exceptionally warm and yet we have very little activity because the atmospheric conditions arenâ€™t right for hurricane formation. Weâ€™ve seen this many, many, many times.

Tim adds:

I've been making this argument for years but few listen.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:59 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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Posted by: custom written essays at August 07, 2022 11:02 AM (xRy/w)

2 It's the same with flooding. But we should drink to the genius who created a below-water city out of the land around New Orleans -- and filled it with Democrats.

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at August 07, 2022 08:46 PM (FSK6u)

3 Commercial buildings being built on the site of a highly destructive flash flood in Tucson, AZ. "Why are you building on a plain that was just flooded," I ask. The response is that they are safe for 200 years. "This is a 200-year flood plain and it just flooded." Genius.

Posted by: Bill H at August 07, 2022 11:17 PM (Q7br2)

4 Exactly right you guys.

Over in Illinois just north of Alton is a town called Grafton. It sits at the confluence of the Illinois and Mississippi rivers. It was a fascinating old town; high river bluffs above, river so wide it looks like a lake, old buildings and a real sense of history.

But for all of my years Grafton was just half populated and there were a lot of buildings that were vacant. That was because it always flooded. Nobody wanted to spend a lot of money there just to be flooded out.

That was until about 10 years ago or so. Suddenly some wealthy interests moved in and have turned the town into a huge tourist spot.

It's a good tourist spot too, with all sorts of things to do there now. But when the next big flood hits...

All the new condos they have build are going to be under water. The new homes on the river banks. The Reubel Hotel. The Grafton winery, all will be under water. And even the floating stuff will be hurting. The enormous marina they built will be covered with mud from all over the Midwest.

We are just building in places we didn't used to build, then complaining they flood. Well duh!

And then they blame it on Global Warming rather than stupidity.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at August 08, 2022 07:57 AM (AauBe)

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