August 24, 2026
Iran is Cracking
Timothy Birdnow
In my best Frank Sinatra voice "and now...the end is near...time to face...the final curtain."
From the New York Post:
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian warned that mounting economic pressure on Tehran is taking its toll, while cautioning against "humiliatingly” backing down "before the enemy.”
"The war must come to an end at some point,” Pezeshkian said in a speech Friday, per state media. "It is better that we demonstrate our strength and dignity today and tell the world that we have won and that we are ending the war.”
That "telling the world they have won" will necessitate surrender in all by name only and they know it. But what choice do they have?
Trump is squeezing the life out of them. And it's about to get much worse.
We can't trust any deal they make, of course, and they will immediately begin trying to cheat on any promises made. But not only should we not let them completely off the hook (we should keep a lot of sanctions in place and only remove them after compliance) but we should start working to remove the government and replace it with a truly pluralistic one. The only way to stop Iran from causing trouble is regime change. We need to help the Iranian People get rid of the Mullahs.
But that can be for later; now we need to get them to agree to the terms we have set down - get rid of all nuclear material and allow inspections of facilities, open the strait of Hormuz, and stop funding terrorists abroad. Force them to agree to those and set up mechanisms for compliance and then make them stick to it while we undermine their authority and power.
Anyway the article states:
"I was in the presence of the Supreme Leader, and in his speeches as well, he openly stated that we must move beyond this state of ‘neither war nor peace,'” Pezeshkian claimed, per a translation referring to Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who hasn’t been seen publicly since the war in Iran began.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the crux of the brilliance of Trump's policies. Iran sponsors Jihad, holy war. How do you fight a holy war when the enemy isn't fighting you, but rather is squeezing your economy? Increasingly the enemy appears not as the Great Satan but their own leaders who are impoverishing and starving their own country in a fruitless, willful struggle against an enemy who won't fight you directly. To people who think as do the Shiite Muslims in the IRGC it's maddening. They can't Djin up anger against America and they can't win this fight. That is why they kept lobbing missiles as other Middle Eastern countries, to try to get those countries to turn on America in the interest of being left alone. That would force the U.S. ultimately to put boots on the ground.
It didn't work because Trump isn't Joe Biden or Barack Obama. He's not even George w. Bush. He knows how to use leverage in ways that hurt.
"No matter how much military power we have, if people are hungry and we do not have financial circulation and economic growth, we will not endure,” Ghalibaf said, per Iranian sate media. "As someone who has experienced war, I understand the true value of peace.”
Most modern wars are won or lost based on economics, not military might. Yes, a strong nation can maybe invade and overrun a weak one (look at the U.S. in Iraq) but why lose all those troops and then get stuck governing a hostile territory? You can crush them far more effectively with economic pressure. It's how WWI ended.
Iran counted on oil. They believed if they closed the Strait of Hormuz, where a quarter of the world's oil moved, they could win any struggle based on economics. They called Trump's bluff, and this has led to new routes for oil transport being developed. Pipelines to bypass the Strait (and the entrance to the Red Sea). Of course the U.S. is lousy with oil and we took over oil from Venezuela, another top producer. The U.S. is now King Arab.
So their leverage is gone and they won't be able to project power any longer. They are waiting too long to cut a deal, but they fear they must drag their feet because otherwise the public will get uppity if they sense weakness. Also they hope the Democrats will win the midterm elections and end the war by imposing the War Powers Act. But it increasingly appears the GOP may win the midterms and that hope is fading.
If they want to cling to power they have to cut a deal. Every day they delay makes it worse.
That's why Trump is increasing the pressure now, just in case. It would be nice to bring the troops home, or at least some of them, before the election, but the fact remains that the public isn't angry at Trump for Iran, even if polling suggests they aren't thrilled with it. You know how I know? I did a web search and couldn't find any recent polling data on it - most data go back to May or June. That tells me they aren't reporting good news (from our perspective). The public didn't much like it back then. If that were true now the wen crawlers would be all over it. They aren't.
If Trump gets a solid deal now and starts demobilizing we'll win just that much more in the elections.
That in no way suggests anyone should stay home come November; we are facing a momentous election and if we screw this up it's curtains for America and I mean that literally. This was and remains our big chance to restore sanity to this country.
But it's looking good.
In another NY Post article we learn traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is up 400 percent as the Iranians no longer have the ability to stop shipping.
They are on the run.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:08 AM
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