Timothy Birdnow

Here is a pretty good analysis on the military situation in the Iran war. Iran seems to be reaching an exhaustion point for their missiles.

They aren't done yet by a long shot but the vast salvo of missiles fired have been winding down considerably and while they keep launching missiles and drones they are launching far fewer than they did at the start of the war.

A friend on Facebook posted a podcast from a fellow claiming we have lost most of our Patriot missile defense systems and can't replace them. This guy argues we lost over half, and that Iran has outsmarted Donald Trump because it will take two years to replace them. He also says we have only taken delivery of 96 such missiles per year. I looked into most of this; it was hogwash. We have lost quite a few - and he's right it was the policy of Iran to try to exhaust our defensive missiles. But he's wrong; we've taken delivery of over 250 per year and can have many more in just a few months. This fellow also argued that the price of oil will go over $150 per barrel because the Strait of Hornuz is closed. This is silly; the Saudis have already MODESTLY increased production, modestly because they don't think they NEED to do more at this time. They can ramp this up as high as they please. We can ramp up our own oil production. And Venezuela will be producing a lot more soon too. This fellow got his numbers by looking at the amount of oil not getting through and simply did static math; he didn't account for increased production at all. Oh, and he quoted Scott Ritter. You remember HIM; he was the guy who warned Saddam had nukes, then changed his tune and said there were none. Hardly a credible source. Oh, and this guy also said 94% of Americans oppose this when in fact an NPR/PBS/Marist poll (which would be biased against the President) had that number in opposition at 56%.

So don't believe everything you come across, especially those predicting doom. This claim we are running out of missiles and are going to lose big time cannot be true or the mainstream media would be crowing about it.

So don't believe any of this doom and gloom, just as we shouldn't believe every brag made by the Administration. The fact is Iran is a Third World country and while they have a lot of missiles and drones they can't keep pace with the U.S., especially with their economy having been boycotted so long. We are going to win this provided we avoid sending troops into the country.

BTW what will happen if Iran should attack Turkey? They are a NATO member state and that would trigger the NATO pact.

Posted by: Mike at March 09, 2026 10:41 PM (Ron5U)

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 10, 2026 12:12 AM (+cB4m)

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 10, 2026 01:47 PM (oflqW)

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