Birdnow's Aviary

May 26, 2026

Forcing a Round Climate Fact Into a Square Climate Model Hole

Timothy Birdnow

Here is an example of how modern climate scientists, steeped in Global Warming theory, twist themselves into pretzels to explain why their model predictions fail.

This paper attempts to explain how we have planetary warming but no increase in planetary precipitation. From the conclusion:

, the actual (all-forcing) hydrological sensitivity is lower than the known and often discussed sensitivity to GHGs (compare schematic in fig. S4). Overall, the simulated multimodel mean hydrological sensitivity is −0.4 ± 1.7% K−1 in the standard historical experiment that combines all forcings.

Fig. 1 Response to GHG, aerosol, and all forcings.

Multimodel mean difference between years 1850–1869 and 1986–2005 from climate model runs with only GHG (red), only aerosol (gray), and all forcings (blue) for global mean near-surface air temperature (top), precipitation (middle), and hydrological sensitivity (bottom). The models are grouped into cold, medium, and warm models based on 20th century warming in the historical (all-forcing) runs according to fig. S2. Boxes indicate medians and quartiles. The ranges indicate averages ± 1 SD.

Figure 1 together with fig. S2 shows that the models that simulate a fairly realistic 20th century warming ("medium”) tend to yield particularly small overall hydrological sensitivities, although it must be noted that on average, the medium models slightly underestimate the observed warming, whereas the "warm” models yield several individual runs with only a rather small overestimate of the global mean temperature increase. This suggests that the overall hydrological sensitivity is still much smaller than the hydrological sensitivity to GHGs and also still within the range of internal climate variability given by the spread between individual model runs in fig. S3. It also explains the absence of a strong hydrological sensitivity in observations (4) and suggests that global mean precipitation has not yet increased significantly despite global warming simply because the hydrological sensitivity to aerosol cooling is larger than that to GHG warming. This lack of observed response in global precipitation to GHG warming is consistent with energy budget arguments and the analysis of historical trends in previous studies that have taken into account aerosol effects (14, 16).

This is just a very long winded way of saying there are aerosols in the atmosphere which are cooling it down and thus making it rain less.

But it's wrong; we know the planet has been losing cloud cover for decades now and if the water is in fact evaporating it would form more clouds - most especially if it is not raining more to get rid of the water vapor. What goes up must come down.

Furthermore it would tend to come down more than anywhere else in the Arctic where it is cool enough for it to fall out (less so in the Antarctic because of the prevailing winds and water currents would drive the precidipitation elsewhere). So we should see glaciers growing in the Arctic. Greenland should be getting pretty top-heavy by now. That it isn't is a direct repudiation of the models.

But maybe not. The Earth's rotation has been increasing in violation of global warming theory, which says there should be more water in the ocean and so the poles should have less mass. Like a figure skater who pirrouettes the Earth is getting smaller in the middle and longer at the poles and so should speed up with MORE ice. If the ice pack is melting it should slow down, just as if that skater put out her arms.

So, we do not see more ice at the poles but we do see the Earth speeding up. And we don't see more precipitation worldwide and we see fewer clouds but we are to believe it's hotter and evaporating more water. It doesn't seem to be.

So either they are lying to us about the ice mass loss or they are lying about the warming. Take your pick.

It's amazing how hard they try to make a round peg fit in a square hole.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:24 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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