January 02, 2023
Currently, we have at least two large states, Texas and Florida, that enjoy strong, effective leadership, while our national government flounders. States like Texas and Florida are plenty big enough to go it on their own, and one wonders how long they will chafe under the yoke of an inept and destructive central government.
The most immediate issue dividing these states from Washington is illegal immigration. The Biden administration has not just failed to secure our southern border, it has repudiated any intention of carrying out its constitutional responsibility. In the presence of such a vacuum, the states have no choice but to act. And they can reasonably ask, why should they continue to owe allegiance to a national government that will not carry out its most basic duty of protecting them against invasion?
Another wedge issue is monetary policy. Both Texas and Florida are well-managed and fiscally sound. In contrast, Washington is a spendthrift mess. The federal government’s trillions in deficit spending have caused inflation that devastates citizens of Florida and Texas, along with the rest of us. And the national government levies onerous taxes to support its profligate spending. Residents of well-managed states like Texas and Florida—and also a number of smaller states, South Dakota is a paragon—will reasonably conclude that they aren’t getting their money’s worth. And Texas and Florida are populous enough to issue their own currency, either separately or jointly.
Then there is the issue of freedom. In recent years, the federal government has encroached on its citizens’ rights to an unprecedented degree, and in a way that is particularly hostile to residents of the well-run states. Why should citizens of Florida and Texas—and North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee, South Carolina, and so on—put up with a government that leans on social media companies to limit their freedom of speech? Why should Florida, for example, continue to recognize the authority of the FBI if it deems that agency to be hopelessly corrupt? And why should energy-rich states like Texas, North Dakota and Louisiana allow their economies to be suppressed by an unholy alliance of misguided environmentalists, greedy politicians, Big Wind and Big Solar?
I don’t think disunion will happen during my lifetime. But I do think that the potential for disunion will play an increasingly important role in our national debates. It would be relatively easy to establish a contiguous nation, based on our current Constitution, that reaches from North Dakota to Texas, then includes the entire Southeast as far as Florida, and extends north to include, at a minimum, Indiana and Ohio. Other states would no doubt choose to join. Such a nation would be vastly better governed than the current United States, it would contain our most important natural resources, and it would include most of the territory from which our armed forces are drawn.
There are strong reasons for the states to re-assert their sovereignty, and, given how poorly our national government is performing, that can only be a good thing. Perhaps the prospect of disunion will concentrate the minds of the political class in Washington. Or perhaps disunion will become a reality, maybe sooner than we can now imagine. Either way, I think the issue of federalism will come to dominate our political debate before long.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:19 AM
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In the '90's there was a Russian analyst named Igor Panarin who predicted the U.S. would splinter in such a fashion. At the time I and others just thought it sour grapes; the Soviet Union was so splintering at that point. But the more time goes by the more I think Panarin - who has always stuck with his prediction - was right.
The Union serves no party interests at this point except the corrupt bureaucrats, the politicians, the lawyers, and the rich moneied classes. The vast majority of Americans get little of real benefit from it.
But it will be a huge task to separate us. The Left is not going to let us go without a fight - a big one. Like any jilted spouse they will seek to extract vengence.
And so many liberals now live in the conservative areas that such extrication will prove quite complex.
There are midwestern states that need to go with the old central government. Certainly Chicago and Detroit need to go. So too does Minneapolis (sorry Dana) and a couple of cities in Wisconsin, as well as my own St. Louis. The northern tier state cities you can kick out; Chicago certainly could be booted and can join Canada or some such. But how do you kick out the others?
It would be interesting to see.
I think we'd wind up a wealthy smaller country and the old U.S. would wind up impoverished, a Third World hellhole in constant civil war. Without the boogeyman of the "right wing" to focus their energies on the leftists running tne new country would quickly fall to fighting among themselves. And they would be unproductive. California would look lik Columbia or Venezuela in short order.
We have the farmland. We have the guns. We have the military people. We have oil and gas. WE have all the really creative centers, the business people, the manufacturing. I think we'd be the economic superpower and they - wouldnn't be.
But the act of partition would be a messy, messy process. And it's time we started seriously thinking about it.
I wonder about old Abe Lincoln. Would he be all about a permanent union today? I rather think not.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at January 03, 2023 09:37 AM (+AVfR)
Posted by: Bill H at January 03, 2023 10:40 AM (Q7br2)
And now there are outside powers that would intervene, which is what Panarin spoke of. In 1860 none would help the Confederates because of slavery. Times have changed in that regard.
And while there a liberals who would be mad about it, the anger that stoked the war machine in the Union and got so many soldiers in the North to enlist is not there and won't be. The old government here is not going to find hot and eager citizens to fight. They'll have to depend on technology, of which they will have considerable weaponry, but we've seen guerilla warfare win such wars around the globe against American military technology before. And as I say much of the military will be on the side of the new country if this plays out as I suspect it will (suspension of the Constitution.)
Again, it's a measure of last resort,but it's reaching the point where it may be the only option to save anything of America. We are fast becoming a People's Republic.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at January 04, 2023 08:29 AM (BwaTe)
Posted by: Bill H at January 04, 2023 10:47 AM (Q7br2)
I don't deny they will be most unpleasant. That's why I say this is a measure of last resort. It will be a terrible thing. But it may be either that or the iron boot in the face forever.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at January 05, 2023 08:59 AM (iOGtB)
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