Timothy Birdnow

Droughts have been decreasing in the U.S.



Bjorne Lombarg has this to say about it:

The US Fourth National Climate Assessment reaffirmed the IPCC finding and stated unequivocally that "drought has decreased over much of the continental United States in association with long-term increases in precipitation” (USGCRP 2017, 49–50, 231). Both IPCC and USGCRP find that there is currently no attribution possible for drought (IPCC 2013a, 913; USGCRP 2017, 236).

Thus, it is incorrect to say that currently we are seeing the climate impact of drought, either globally or in the US.

However, the IPCC suggests with medium confidence that with extreme emission scenarios (RCP8.5), it is likely that drought risk could increase in currently dry regions towards the end of the century (IPCC 2013a, 1032). Similarly, the USGCRP finds that "under higher scenarios and assuming no change to current water-resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible by the end of this century” (USGCRP 2017, 240).

Thus, it is possible to argue that climate change can make drought worse, but it is important to point out that this is only with high-end scenarios and towards the end of the century.

Read my 2020 peer-reviewed article: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:49 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
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