June 24, 2021

Does Antarctic Ice Raise or Lower sea Levels?

This from Jim Church:

ICE-3G is the most used model for correcting tide gauge data against PGR [15]. It's creators, Peltier and Tushingham were among the first scientists to make the linkage between global sea level rise and the Greenhouse Effect, claiming in 1989 that sea levels were rising at a rate in excess of 1 mm/yr [33].

Testing the Waters: the Parliament of Australia

The impression has been conveyed to the world's public, media, and policymakers, that the sea level rise of 18 cm in the past century is an observed quantity and therefore not open to much dispute. What is not widely known is that this quantity is largely the product of modeling, not observation, and thus very much open to dispute, especially as sea level data in many parts of the world fails to live up to the IPCC claims.

I reply:

Yawp. We have no way of measuring sea level around the globe. The sea rises and falls with the tides, so you can't just put a stick out and see it creep up year after year. It's done through modeling - like the planetary temperatures. The assumptions made in those models are critical to the "observed data".

John Lees tosses his 2p:

Remove the work of Peltier from climate science and almost EVERYTHING that has been said about ice loss and sea level rise would be gone.
That's an awful lot of reliance on one man.
What if his model is flawed. What if it is based on faulty assumptions. If you take away the work of Peltier then Antartica is empirically gaining vast amounts of ice.
How the Peltier model explains this is as follows: Antartica is losing ice, therefore it is getting lighter, therefore the earth below is bouyed up, therefore the surface is rising.
The alternative explanation for the rising surface is as follows: Antarctica is GAINING ice and the ice is piling up, causing the surface to rise.
See, the assumption is everything. If you assume ice loss then you can marry that to the observation of a rising surface, and similarly if you assume the opposite.
(I'm specifically referring to the vast area of Antartica in which there are no mountains penetrating the ice sheet.)

Tim adds:

It seems to me Peltier could well have it completely backwards John Lees. It could be the sea level is rising around Antarctica not because the land is rising but because it's compressing.

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