New research looked at 500 years worth of extinctions and concludes that species loss peaked about a century ago. Far from the rate accelerating as we pour carbon dioxide into the sky, fewer species are disappearing now than forty or fifty years ago.

Kristen Saban and John Wiens considered data on as many as two million species. They specifically analyzed some 912 plants and animals that became extinct in the last 500 years.

Many of thedoom and gloom forecasts took extinction rates from long ago and extrapolated them mindlessly forward, as climate modelers are want to do.

Extinction rates have slowed across many plant and animal groups, study shows

EurekaAlert

"To our surprise, past extinctions are weak and unreliable predictors of the current risk that any given group of animals or plants is facing,” said lead author Saban, who recently graduated from the U of A and is currently a doctoral student at Harvard University.

Humans have wiped out species, but mostly by bringing in rats, pigs and goats to isolated islands:

Extinction rates varied strongly among groups, and extinctions were most frequent among mollusks, such as snails and mussels, and vertebrates, but relatively rare among plants and arthropods. Most extinctions were of species that were confined to isolated islands, like the Hawaiian Islands. On continents, most extinctions were in freshwater habitats. Island extinctions were most frequently related to invasive species, but habitat loss was the most important cause (and current threat) in continental regions. Many species appeared to go extinct on islands because of predators and competitors brought by humans, such as rats, pigs and goats.

The researchers could not find any evidence suggesting climate change was increasing the rate of extinction:

Somewhat unexpectedly, the researchers found that in the last 200 years, there was no evidence for increasing extinction from climate change.

"That does not mean that climate change is not a threat,” Wiens said. "It just means that past extinctions do not reflect current and future threats.”

It seems like a very comprehensive study. Given it’s importance, I’m sure the UN will be delighted. It’s a wonder they didn’t commission a study just like this 30 years ago…

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 12:34 PM | No Comments | Add Comment
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