March 28, 2026

Climate Models Failed Predictions

Timothy Birdnow


I posted this on a climate debate forum on Facebook. I thought it worth reposting here, even if I have already gone over this stuff time and time again:

According to a 2024 report from the World Health Organization drowning deaths globally dropped by a whopping 38% since the year 2000.
https://www.who.int/news/item/13-12-2024-drowning-deaths-decline-globally-but-the-most-vulnerable-remain-at-risk

So riddle me this; how is this possible if sea levels are rising precipitously and extreme weather events are becoming more common (they aren't) how can this be?

More people than ever are hanging out at beaches and lakes and other watery areas.

Even if we attribute fewer drownings to better rescue techniques and more care for life-preserving systems we have to admit that this suggests the environmental apocalypse predicted over climate change just isn't happening. And remember the population has increased since 2000, not gone down.

I would add 2025 was a "quiet" hurricane season in violation of the predictions made by climate models. https://arxiv.org/html/2511.23458v3 In fact the 21st century has largely been quiet in terms of hurricanes, as well as tornadoes. The frequency of tornadoes in the U.S. has declined significantly since 1950. https://www.heritage.org/environment/report/twisters-and-trends-analysis-us-tornado-activity-and-climate-change Tornadoes do more damage now because there is a lot more stuff built down on the flats to be destroyed than in bygone days. (The same holds true for Hurricanes - much more stuff on the sea shore than in the past). Floods have become less deadly too. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378523732_Floods_have_become_less_deadly_an_analysis_of_global_flood_fatalities_1975-2022 This despite more property damage being caused by flooding, primarily because we are building more in flood plains now than we used to and so there is more stuff to get wrecked.

Oh, I hear you now...but, but,but what about wildfires? What about them? IF there is an increase in wildfires (and many of them were intentionally set over the last few years by environmentalists to "prove" climate change, such as in California https://www.foxla.com/news/multiple-people-accused-starting-fires-firestorm-rages-california and in Australia ) then we must ask how that is possible in a world that has heated up one degree and thus evaporated more water vapor which, logically, should make wildfires harder to start. And of course we conveniently forget about the changes in wildfire management and prevention (like not removing deadwood from forests and then being surprised when a bunch of dry tinder catches).

None of this comports with the climate change models.

At what point do we admit the models are just wrong?









Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:44 AM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
Post contains 403 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Actually, I think that "we" are pretty well agreed that the climate models are wrong and probably always were. It's just the diehards that don't agree -- the "gang green," as you like to call them. The ones who say it's getting hotter because temperatures are going down, and stuff like that. You know: Democrats and their ilk.

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 28, 2026 09:15 PM (+oLFx)

2 I know Dana which is why I generally beat this dead horse overmuch but I feel compelled to do so on Facebook with these ridiculous, arrogant Gang Greenous types. Oh, and I want to supply everyone with some facts with which they may not be acquainted.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 29, 2026 08:55 AM (oflqW)

3 Good for you. Of course, I think that Facebookies in general are unteachable because they are liberals, so what can you do? That's why you don't see people like Jack Kemp, or me, over there.

Posted by: Dana Mathewson at March 30, 2026 12:15 AM (gVePp)

4 Great Post Look like more Financial Management 

Posted by: Eco Nivesh at March 30, 2026 06:46 AM (dRK/L)

5 Well Dana I'm on Facebook for two reasons 1I have a lot of very Conservative friends who give me stuff I can use here and 2.I can stay in touch with people I wouldn't be able to under normal circumstances A lot of the people who came to my Dad's funeral could only be reached because I was on Facebook. We couldn't locate them otherwise.
I totally see why you wouldn't want to be on though. 

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at March 30, 2026 07:43 AM (oflqW)

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