Climate Change - IPCC Outdated Conclusions

David Redfern:

With thanks to Carl R Franklin

Why are the climate change IPCC reports always outdated with grossly high (alarmist) predictions?

There are two primary reasons:

First, the U.N. IPCC (Intergovernmen tal Panel on Climate Change) was formed mostly from the UN Environmental Panel (made up mostly of environmental activists) putting the Fox in change of the Hen House. Bias has always been their modus operandi.

Second, the IPCC issues a report every 6 years on average. But the IPCC decides what "numbers” to defend about 2 years before the cycle starts; then spends 6 years researching and writing their report.

This is necessary since each of the hundreds of authors/ contributors need to use the same basis for consistency throughout the 1,500-2,000 page report. But the "consensus” numbers have always dropped considerably over the 8 year time-frame, so IPCC reports always end up defending 8 year old climate change numbers which are now considered "alarmist” by most scientists.

Climate warming projections have fallen steadily from the anticipated 15°C temperature rise and run-away global warming in the 1970’s to, within a few years, < 1°C within 100 years if atmospheric CO2 concentrations double, based on the latest research correcting for errors in the 70 year old derivations of Greenhouse Gas Theory formula.

Similarly, Sea Level Rise predictions have fallen within a few short years from 30 to 50 feet in the 1970’s, to about 12 inches over the coming 100 years based on the best current satellite data.

12 inches of Sea Level Rise over 100 years is only about 1 inch greater than what’s been happening for thousands of years – so man is theoretically responsible for 1 inch in 100 years. In Geological terms this would go entirely unnoticed.

To put this in perspective, only 0.2% of Florida is < 12 inches above sea level and almost all of this is in the uninhabitable Everglades swamp. So, 100 years from now no one but the Alligators will notice 12 inches of Sea Level Rise and, perhaps, 11 inches would happen without mankind.

The trend away from climate alarmism has been astounding and current predictions have become almost trivial.

The alarmists have lost the "WOW” factor.

The current situation is, the IPCC met with the delegates/ authors selected to write the report coming out in 2022, in 2014.

In 2014 they decided the "consensus” at the time was 2°-3°C warming and 3 to 10 feet of sea level rise over the next 100 years. So, these are the "numbers” we expect to see in their 2022 report; whereas in 2018 the predictions are already down to < 1°C and about 12 inches of sea rise over 100 years.

As soon as they issue their report, they will already have egg all over their face, and a perfect record of failed alarmist projections over 40+ years.

The U.N. IPCC sells itself as the worlds leading authority on the "current state” of climate research. As such, along with their 2,000 page report every 6 years, they issue a summary ~30 page long titled "Summary for Policy Makers” which most world leaders rely on.

The problem is most world leaders believe the Summary Report unquestioningly .

Yet another example of how huge, uncritical bureaucracies fail miserably. If the science is changing rapidly, you can’t claim you are the "authority” and publish the "current state of understanding” if you base your conclusions on 8 an year old "consensus”.

The negative effects of more atmospheric CO2 keep getting smaller and smaller. The likelihood that the benefits of more CO2 outweigh the negatives improves all the time.

Climate change alarmism is losing on all fronts.

Tim adds:

Well said David! I remember when this thing was gearing up; the media's breathless reporting sounded like baseball announcer Harry Carey "it could be, it might be, it IS!" (Carey was the Chicago Cubs announcer and did that for home runs - everyone watching already KNEW it was a home run.) The media first started talking about the IPCC in hushed, expectant tones, then when the first report came out they were exstatic. "IT IS!" But I knew exactly what they would find; it was obvious back then this was where those in power wanted it to go. Hardly a surprise. .

Oh, one more thing to add; the IPCC is also a vehicle to enhance the presrige of a researcher and the institution he or she works for so there is a career incentive in this. Prestige comes from being alarmist here.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 08:40 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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