July 29, 2021

Chinese Decline

From Lance Sjogren

Chinese tech giant drops $170 billion in value. Chinese stocks would have been a great investment if China had continued its course of gradually becoming less oppressive which occurred up to around 2015 or so.

But Xi Jinping took power and proved to be a paranoid tyrant. His rule has shown some of the traits of the Kim Jung Un regime in North Korea, and you know what kind of economy that country has. Not only has he engaged in an iron-fisted crackdown on ethnic minorities, religious minorities, and any dissent in general, but he has made moves to cripple China's largest businesses for fear their wealthy executives like Jack Ma might prove to be rivals that threaten his power.

People who think China is on the rise are mistaken. It is in deep shit. One of the main reasons people think China is in a good position is on account of what a mess the US is in. But so is China. In my opinion both of the two most powerful nations in the world are really f'd up. It's debatable how formidable an adversary the US would be today if China attacked Taiwan. Fortunately, I think the only way that will happen is if Jinping feels his regime is close to overthrow and he uses a military campaign as a desperation attempt to hang onto power. It will be interesting to see whether an attack by China on Taiwan would trigger India to invade Tibet in order to liberate it from China. I'm sure Jinping has nightmares about that sort of thing. China may learn that colonization works both ways- you may succeed in colonizing countries but your past imperial conquests are not guaranteed to stick.

Because the two superpowers are such a mess, the next tier of nations are going to be the most important factors in world affairs for the time being. Japan, India, Britain, Australia, France even Russia, which fortunately will probably be a constructive force in East Asia since it knows that China is its biggest threat.

Just because the US is a mess doesn't mean China is ascending. China is a mess too. Its regime is sabotaging its own economy out of fear of being overthrown.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 10:26 AM | Comments (2) | Add Comment
Post contains 378 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Keep enjoying the sense of superiority that comes from ignoring the fact that US currency is rapidly devaluing against Chinese currency, which makes Chinese stocks cheaper in dollars. The Chinese stacks have not changed, the American dollar has. It has become more and more worthless.

Posted by: Bill H at July 29, 2021 04:08 PM (/sW5m)

2 It has Bill but that doesn't mean China is necessarily a good deal. I've always believed China to be a paper tiger and if the U.S. currency collapses so will the Chinese, methinks.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at July 30, 2021 06:26 AM (yDL7Z)

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