Timothy Birdnow

China loses population for the third straight year in a row.

I suspect we are going to see a downward spiral as China's population continues to shrink. This is a classic Bell Curve; now they are on the downward leg of things. If the West has taught us anything it is that once you start losing population even though you wanted to do so you have a hard time arresting the decline. Look at Russia.

And with population decline you often get economic malaise. Nations need enough people to support the older generation. Even in countries where there isn't really a welfare state it is done through unofficial channels i.e. families. Reduce the number of people and you can no longer afford to care for the elders, and so you get deficit spending and at the same time not enough taxes to support a welfare system. The end result is frequently economic decline.

We've seen this in many places in Europe and in Russia. Now it's coming to China.

But China's economy is entirely based on economic growth, and managing a shrinking economy will lead to chaos. The Chicoms can't use the very poor method employed in the West, namely importing new people; they would lose control of the country. There is no People on Earth as xenophobic and race-conscious as the Chinese.

So they are in a pickle. This could well destroy them in the end.

I've long argued China is a paper tiger and population decline has always been one of the factors I've considered in making that assessment.

At any rate it would be good to have fewer Chinese, no question, for both ourselves and the long-term future of China. But it will lead to profound chnages there, and China may well seek foreign adventurism as a distraction. The Chicoms will be most unpleasant in their death throes.

BTW I would add the One child policy gave China a unique situation; too many boys, too few girls. Chinese would abort girl children because their culture was always patralinear. So you have a bunch of men seeking women with none to be found. That is ripe war. The Chinese men are going to have to seek abroad to find women. If they have to conquer to do so so be it.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 01:11 PM | Comments (5) | Add Comment
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