Timothy Birdnow

Having a discussion on Facebook about the Wuhan Virus and the need - or lack thereof - for continuing panic.

Nadeen Clasen Warren says:

From what I just read, because of the rapidly spreading, possibly more lethal, variants. The UK variant is causing a spike in cases in the US, and the South American variant may prove to be more lethal. People are letting their guard down. It’s a problem. The vaccine is new and we don’t know everything yet. We may need booster shots. We can frolic with those vaccinated in our family maskless. Not safe in public.

I reply:

Had we not gone this lockdown and scrub-down and social distancing route we would have achieved herd immunity before the virus had time to mutate so much. We were guaranteeing a long and nasty covid season by doing this, spreading the disease outward. Had we sheltered those who need sheltering (and most of those who have died were in poor health or aged) we could have nipped this in the bud - just as we normally do such illnesses. You can't hide forever from a virus like this. But we are trying, and surprised that this thing keeps mutating and won't go away. I predicted this very thing a year ago.

Nadeen responds:

Herd immunity is about a herd of cattle. There is no "herd” in our world of mobility and travel. Too many people will die waiting for herd immunity that cannot happen in our world of travel.

Bob Clasen jumps in:

The current approach didn’t work. There is little difference between lockdown states and more open states, except the level of devastation to the economies.

I respond:

Nadeen Clasen Warren What do you think they are trying to do with a vaccine other than create herd immunity? That is the goal of vaccinations.

I would add that there are groups like the Amish who have achieved it without a problem and have low infection rates. Also, Sweden, which rejected lockdowns early and took a beating in the press because of initially high death rates, is now down to very low death levels.

You seem to think this is the first time something like this has happened. It isn't. We had worldwide pandemics in 1957 and '68 and we did not lock down and they ended. We had plenty of air travel at that time. In fact, the '57 pandemic was as bad as Covid if adjusted for population growth. We didn't shut the world down and it went away - because the public achieved herd immunity. Herd immunity is a real thing and epidemiologists speak of it about people all the time. I don't know why you think it only applies to cattle.

And again, this disease primarily effects the elderly and sick. We could have quarantined them and let the rest of the public get it and get over it. You seem to believe this is like smallpox or bubonic plague. It isn't. It's a COLD VIRUS. A nasty one that kills people, but then, the regular cold virus kills the sickly and the elderly every year too. This may be quite a bit worse, but it is hardly cause for the kind of panic that so many have advocated. Even with massive inflation of cases https://www.ratical.org/PandemicParallaxView/C19dataCollection-C+FL-HistPerspec.pdf  Also https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/05/29/us_covid-19_death_toll_is_inflated.html#!we are still not seeing the kind of deaths from it that were being predicted. The guy who started this panic - Neil Ferguson of London's Imperial College - had to admit his model was full of crap. 

And as Bob pointed out, there is no difference in infection or death rates between places that locked down or did not. Actually, the places that didn't lock down had better rates than those that did. https://sentinelksmo.org/covid-update-states-not-locked-down-have-better-outcomes/. This shows we should needed to allow this thing to run it's course. Your argument seems to be we all need to hide under a tree to avoid the rain; eventually the leaves get saturated and we all get wet regardless.

Which means we should have lived our lives free of fear and done what we could for the vulnerable. We didn't. We tried to hide from something that cannot be hidden from, and were surprised at the outcome. We were told "three weeks" back last year and we are still running from this. Some things have to be faced.

And of course, now that we have vaccines we are told there are new strains and the vaccines aren't going to end it. At what point do you stop hiding?

Herd immunity will be achieved, or do you think we are still in the throes of the Spanish flu?

(I would also point out that we had almost no flu season, which strongly suggests the seasonal flu was misdiagnosed as Covid.)

BTW How many deaths has the response to the Wuhan Virus caused worldwide? The poor are the most vulnerable to these lockdowns. https://www.aier.org/article/death-by-lockdown/  It also hit children very hard. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31647-0/fulltext

So what did more damage?

Again, what value will this fear have to us? Even if you are correct and there is no herd immunity, what of it? I would rather live life as a free man than as a coward hiding in my basement.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:06 AM | Comments (1) | Add Comment
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