Timothy Birdnow

There has been quite a bit of analysis of the Trump meeting with Congress in which he appeared to promise to sign any DACA bill put before him. While some in the conservative movement are wailing and gnashing teeth, others are sunnily dismissing the issue. So, which is it? Did Trump throw us under the bus or did he outmanuever the Democrats?

I see a nbumber of strategic issues involved which, if Trump actually is faithful to his campaign promises (something still not clear after all this time) then he has a variety of reasons why he would do this. Let me explain.
First there is the stupid Michael Wolff book claiming Trump is insane or demented. This is not something easily laughed off, because the Left has been setting the stage to use the 25th Amendment to remove Trump from office with claims he is incapacitated. They know Mike Pence is a good conservative but weak, and they could possibly find a way to force him out too, and if not he will be weak, a man willing to go along with a President he knew was mad as a hatter. Trump needed to get in front of this, and he could do it by contradicting - publiclly - some of the claims (such as that he is disengaged or that he has no attention span.) I have little douobt that, at least in part, this was part of the calculation made.

The other thing I think Trump was doing here was setting the stage to outflank the Democrats in the upcoming budget battle. As we all know, the Dems want to hold the American People hostage by shutting down the government over DACA. How can they do that now when Trump said he'd sign a bill if they sent him one? Trump knows the Democrats aren't going to be able to get something pulled together in time, and if they do Trump still said he needs border security and the wall, and he never promised he would sign a "clean" bill. He said he would sign a bill even if he wasn't thrilled with it, but what does that mean?

In point of fact, as The Hill notes the Democrats are between a rock and a hard place with this DACA thing; being pushed hard by the base to get it done but having no leverage to do so. Trump's televised meeting with Congressional leaders effectively noxed them in. Now THEY will look like the radicals if they try a shutdown.

Trump knows there won't be a stand alone bill, too. The Democrats need this done by Trump himself and he knows it.

And he knows a crisis point is coming with Mueller, who is demanding he submit to questioning. Trump may have to fire Mueller at that point, and he can't afford to have these claims of insanity go on. Trump can't afford a showdown with Congress at this moment. He's got big problems around the globe, including the Iranian deal (which he has to decide whether to keep), the North Korea business, and a host of other problems that wouuld drive a lesser fellow to despair. Trump, of course, has spent his life in crisis management and seems to thrive here, but it has to take it's toll. He needs a respite before the storm.

And as I have argued Trump seems to follow the precepts of Sun Tzu and makes an ever shifting target for his enemies. To get them hoping he's going to now change course and play ball with them is right up his alley.

That is if Trump is approaching this strategically and has not really sold us down the river.

He has to know that if he does he will be a one term President, and the media will wind up writing his story, so he will be listed in a category with people like James Buchanan or Herbert Hoover or at best Gerald Ford. History will be harsh on Trump. He's in a position where he must keep his promises or perish.

I think he knows that, and am hoping he is not falling for the lies peddled inside the Beltway. One of the problems with being President is you get imprisoned inside an echo chamber. And when your own daughter and her husband want to be Establishment types, you get fed a lot of balogna. It may be Trump is being seduced.

When Trump was first running Daren Jonescu and I theorized that he was intended to break the Tea Party, to be a false flag candidate who then would be so disastrous that we would all give up with insurgency forever. I have swung around since Trump has proven himself trustworthy thus far. Thus far.

Let us hope and pray he remains so.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 11:02 AM | No Comments | Add Comment
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