January 31, 2025
Timothy Birdnow
There has been a quiet yet massive buildup of Ukrainian air power thanks in large part to the U.S.and France supplying large numbers of aircraft, as well as other NATO members (like the Dutch) and this poses a serious danger of excalation of the war.
William Walter Kay dishes:
At some point the Ukrainians will have to use all these weapons. They cannot sit on them indefinitely. And when they do Russia will turn to balistic missiles.
And in fact Russia may not limit herself to using such weapons on Ukraine, but may target the suppliers.
There has been a quiet yet massive buildup of Ukrainian air power thanks in large part to the U.S.and France supplying large numbers of aircraft, as well as other NATO members (like the Dutch) and this poses a serious danger of excalation of the war.
William Walter Kay dishes:
"Last July, Ukraine owned several dozen vintage Soviet/Russian aircraft. This July, Ukrainian Air Force (UAF) Commander Kryvonozhko should oversee 85 American F16s and 20 French M2000-5s. Additionally, planes and parts donated by eastern NATO states should boost UAF’s Soviet/Russian fleet to 95, including 40 Mig29s. This buildup, avoided by mainstream media, constitutes transformative escalation."
[...]
But for NATO, Ukraine wouldn’t own a warplane. NATO supplies all ammo and fuel. All active UAF pilots are NATO-trained; so to, much of UAF brass. More than Ukraine’s army, UAF is a Brussels proxy. As fighting spills skyward, it becomes NATO v Russia.
Europeans, not Americans, are the air-warhawks; none more than Dutch King Willem and his First Minister Rutte. They initiated aircraft transfers, donated their entire F16 and trainer fleet, and were first to greenlight airstrikes inside Russia. Last October, Rutte became NATO Secretary General!
UAF could launch hundreds of strikes a day; but doesn’t. Their boast of 50 sorties a day in 2024, no doubt exaggerated, is doable with two dozen planes. UAF began launching Storm Shadows from Su24s in May 2023. One Su24 could have launched all Storm Shadows to date. Downing a UAF plane makes news; indicating how few are at risk. Reportage on Ukraine’s F16s recount lore-larded tales of drone and missile interception; i.e., work better left to ground-base weapons. F16s, seemingly, undertake defensive missions only. UAF sequesters jets whilst acquiring more.
Idleness might result from fuel and ammo shortages. It might reflect a methodical roll-out on a multi-year timetable, or …they’re prepping a blitz.
Unleashing the new UAF, suddenly or slowly, will surely trigger an avalanche of Russian ordnance… and the war shall soar."
[...]
But for NATO, Ukraine wouldn’t own a warplane. NATO supplies all ammo and fuel. All active UAF pilots are NATO-trained; so to, much of UAF brass. More than Ukraine’s army, UAF is a Brussels proxy. As fighting spills skyward, it becomes NATO v Russia.
Europeans, not Americans, are the air-warhawks; none more than Dutch King Willem and his First Minister Rutte. They initiated aircraft transfers, donated their entire F16 and trainer fleet, and were first to greenlight airstrikes inside Russia. Last October, Rutte became NATO Secretary General!
UAF could launch hundreds of strikes a day; but doesn’t. Their boast of 50 sorties a day in 2024, no doubt exaggerated, is doable with two dozen planes. UAF began launching Storm Shadows from Su24s in May 2023. One Su24 could have launched all Storm Shadows to date. Downing a UAF plane makes news; indicating how few are at risk. Reportage on Ukraine’s F16s recount lore-larded tales of drone and missile interception; i.e., work better left to ground-base weapons. F16s, seemingly, undertake defensive missions only. UAF sequesters jets whilst acquiring more.
Idleness might result from fuel and ammo shortages. It might reflect a methodical roll-out on a multi-year timetable, or …they’re prepping a blitz.
Unleashing the new UAF, suddenly or slowly, will surely trigger an avalanche of Russian ordnance… and the war shall soar."
At some point the Ukrainians will have to use all these weapons. They cannot sit on them indefinitely. And when they do Russia will turn to balistic missiles.
And in fact Russia may not limit herself to using such weapons on Ukraine, but may target the suppliers.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
10:41 AM
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