March 24, 2026
Suck on this Gang Green
Timothy Birdnow
Alaska and Canada have been freezing this winter, with Fairbanks experiencing the second coldest winter it has had since 1904-5.
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09:18 AM
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Boston Colleges Defy Trump, Act as Sanctuaries
Timothy Birdnow
And yet these institutions are still receiving federal dollars.
The Hall of Shame includes:
Harvard (who else), MIT, Boston University, UMASS Boston, and Suffolk University.
Time for these schools to lose any and all funding from taxpayers, and to get a pledge from the Trump Administration not to hire any graduates from these schools.
If you want to openly break the law there must be a penalty paid.
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08:54 AM
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MAGA Sitting Out CPAC
Timothy Birdnow
Donald Trump will not be attending CPAC this year, nor will any of his higher level people.
I suspect it's a security matter more than anything else; Trump faces a real threat from Iranian assassins, as do his top people (like Vance).
CPAC doesn't have the prestige it once had either, and Trump could find it more effective to campaign elsewhere rather than there. Too many RINO Republicans run CPAC.
The article theorizes that big monied interests, especially since the Schlapps took over, have made the event over-commercialized, favoring the RINO wing.
Steve Bannon and Ted Cruz appear to be the only MAGA conservatives who will appear. Most of the rest are foreign or not potential candidates for the Presidency in '28.
It's too bad; CPAC was once a force to be reckoned with, and you had to have a good showing there to have any hope of winning the Presidency. But chasing dollars has led it to become irrelevant.
So Trump certainly has no reason to risk his life by going there, especially during a war with an enemy who likes to skulk around in bushes waiting to murder you when you aren't looking.
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08:36 AM
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Dildoes for Jesus
Timothy Birdnow
Anglicanism is as dead as the country of Lesser Britain.
Protestia@Protestia·Mar 21Anglican priestess is partnering with a sex-shop to give away hundreds of free vibrators, and then donating any profits from her affiliation to Planned Parenthood.
This randy woman checks all the boxes too; she's a black female priestess in the Anglican church. I wonder if she's a lesbian as well.
At any rate a sane church would excommunicate her or at least defrock her. But the Anglicans lost their sanity some time ago.
It's funny; I don't remember Jesus and the Apostles selling adult marital aids to raise cash when they walked the Earth, and I don't recall them helping to pay for abortions...
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08:22 AM
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Muchscum Ritter has Short Eyes
Timothy Birdnow
Remember Scott Ritter? He was the obnoxious UNSCUM member who had his fifteen minutes of fame for saying Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction after he and his people said they were there.
Well, Ritter blew his career up and now we know he went to jail for having a little quirk.
He liked 'em young.
Mr. Ritter after a trial in which the jurors were forced to watch Mr. Ritter masturbating to photos of 14 year old kids naked. And he sent those photos of himself TO those 14 year old kids.
Daniel Friedman@DanFriedman81The reason former UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter is now doing fringe podcasts is that his career was destroyed after he went to prison for being a pedophile.
Ritter sent videos of himself masturbating to 14 year-old girls. He had to sit in court while the jury watched those videos.
More and more it appears you have to be some sort of pervert to get ahead in Washington.
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08:12 AM
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Democrats Demand Voer I.D. for Rest of the World
Timothy Birdnow
Very interesting; the Democrats run an international agency, funded with taxpayer dollars, that teaches other countries about the importance of voter I.D.
Stacey Abrams, Tom Daschle, and a host of other has-been Donkeys run this operation which, among other things, pushes for voter I.D. overseas.
Interesting; yet they demand we have none here. Now why do you suppose that is?
I've had to produce a photo I.D. to visit my brother in the hospital. Every time - and they reproduce my picture on a nametag I have to wear - all just to see my own brother. But minorities are too stupid to figure out how to get an I.D. to vote, yes sir!
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Columbia Prof Convicted of Slavery
Timothy Birdnow
A Columbia University professor and U.N. judge was convicted of modern slavery for enslaving a young woman she hired to work as a maid.
Lydia Mugambe was a Ugandan lawyer and former judge who worked for the U.N. She was a fellow at Columbia.
These are the kinds of people hired by major universities in the U.S. and elsewhere. They are also the kind of people who have always inhabited the United Nations.
Why does anyone still listen to the major universities these days?
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07:40 AM
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Honest Journalism? No Such Thing with Mainstream Media
Timothy Birdnow
Fired CBS News reporter Scott McFarlane has joined the leftist and Democrat-associated Meidas Touch network.
After going on and on about his not becoming an editorialist but staying an "enterprise journalist" whatever that means he says;
"It’s important when we underscore how significant this moment is, this moment of unique political toxicity and unique political danger.
"MeidasTouch and I have long shared this same philosophy — you don’t platform lies. You don’t platform conspiracy theories. And you don’t allow for the whitewashing of history.”
I fail to see the distinction. It sounds pretty much to me like he's going to give his own opinions, only he's not honest enough to admit that's what he's doing.
Of course this could be any member of the media. McFarlane is just one of many who lie about being "honest journalists".
There is no honesty in modern journalism. The only honest journalists are in the alternate media.
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07:21 AM
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March 23, 2026
It's Good to be an Illegal Alien
Timothy Birdnow
Another day, another alien corruption story.
It seems every last illegal alien has their hand in the taxpayer till.
I remember Phil Collins famously sang "it's no fun being an illegal alien" He couldn't have been more wrong!
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The Paraguayan Miracle
Timothy Birdnow
How Paraguay, the once poor and disregarded South American country, embraced Trumpism and the Texas model and is now the hottest property in Latin America.
They cut taxes, cut regulations, embraced a "Paraguay first" model, and the rest and now they are booming.
This was never rocket science; we all know how to make an economy flourish and how to kill it. But politics is more religion than philosophical system and for decades a lie has blinded so many of our leaders - and the rest were blinded by ambition and greed.
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10:36 AM
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Swamp Still Full of Fetid Waters
Timothy Birdnow
Brian Joondeph looks at the quagmire in Washington and especially at Kash "what's the rush" Patel's failure to move on prosecutions.
Brian is right and while Patel and the rest may be following a legally prudent course of action they are failing to keep a core campaign promise - and this is infuriating the base of the party. At some point there has to be an accounting or this stuff (like the raid on Mar-a-Lago and the investigations of Trump) will just return when the Democrats get back in power (which becomes more likely the longer Patel and the rest foot drag.)
As Michael Corleone said in The Godfather "today we settle all Family business". Yet strangely that isn't happening.
Trump probably doesn't want to; he's probably been told by the GOP his agenda is finished if he pursues justice, so he will probably wait until after the election of '28 for the cases to be filed. I get it and understand Trump usually knows what he is doing, but that doesn't mean I like it.
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10:28 AM
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Banks Want to Keep the Aliens Coming
Timothy Birdnow
Banking, especially the big international banks, has always been at the forefront of the Progressive project aka promoting this America Last agenda. Why should it be any different here?
Trump is pushing banks to use e-verify and other tools to debank illegal aliens on the theory that if they can't do business here they will return home. But the banks aren't happy at all about this; they've been getting rich off of illegal immigrants for years now.
That and I have little doubt many employees of these banks are illegals, hired because they work cheap.
The banks argue this puts an onerous burden on them (it doesn't) and that it is bad for the economy, despite the fact that salaries are up, housing is more affordable, jobs are more plentiful, and inflation is down since we started booting out the freeloading aliens.
They would rather their country be obliterated then lose a nickel.
God save us from the bankers; they've been a parasitic class from the Middle Ages when they started and remain so today. So many terrible ideas were funded by banks and bankers, including the Communists in Russia and Hitler's Nazi Party. They don't seem to have changed much either.
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Aferkins is Stooopid
Timothy Birdnow
A study done by Africans in Nigeria says that on average Africans are functional semi-morons at least as compared to other groups around the globe.
Right Angle News Network
@Rightanglenews
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BREAKING - An Africa-based research team aiming to disprove Western claims about low IQ in African countries is going viral after conducting mass IQ tests in Lagos, Nigeria, only for over 50% of participants to score below 70, with a median score of 69.7.
The article goes on to discuss poor nutrition as perhaps one of the causes and no doubt this is correct. It also speaks to language, which at least one philosophy professor believes is at the heart of lower I.Q. (I've long argued language is vitally important for the expression of complex ideas and it is the very thing that makes English so hard to learn that makes it the ideal language for science.)
But there is also the tribal nature of society in Africa. You are a member of your tribe, and that takes most of your allegiance. The insular nature of tribal life is guaranteed to discourage intellectual inquiry, and couple that with poverty (the natural result) and you get lower I.Q.
So, bad food, diseases, lack of intellectual stimulation, and language that was devised in the stone age all conspire to keep Africans stupid. And it's hard for them to change because they aren't smart enough to figure out that the way they live makes them morons; the stupid never realize they are stupid.
That said, this study was ONLY done in one city (Lagos, Nigeria) and it may well be that it's just the Lagocians who are imbeciles. But I suspect it's a lot of other Africans who aren't all that swift, and it shows by the intense poverty in their countries. Ignorance and stupidity go hand-in-hand with poverty. You may remember the scene in A Christmas Carol where the Ghost of Christmas Present shows two filthy, emaciated children from under his robe (which in itself makes me wonder about the old boy there) they were Ignorance and Want. Beware, old ghostie said, particularly of ignorance. Why? Ignorance breeds want; without the former you probably won't have the latter.
So is this just genetics and not the other issues? Perhaps, but this study doesn't answer that. But I tend to think not.
There are other places as impoverished and unsuccessful as Africa/Nigeria and we need to do these kinds of studies there. Papua New Guinea would be a good place to try it. Despite the PNG People looking rather like Africans they actually are genetically related to the People of the Philippines. So we should test them; they have similar environmental conditions (by that I mean the social environment, not physical - except in places like the Congo). We could check Palau, which is isolated and dirt poor. Check out native tribes in the Amazon. See if I.Q. is lower in these places and if so we know it is purely environmental.
Culture does play a big part in all of this and certainly ghetto areas in the U.S. suffer both lower I.Q. and cultural traits brought over from Africa by slaves, slaves who kept their traditions alive.
There is also the matter of alcohol/drug use. In Papua New Guinea the natives don't necessarily drink a lot but they tend to chew on something called the Betelnut, an hallucinogenic, and I gather they munch on that all day to take the edge off their miserable lives. I suspect we'll find something similar in most Third World countries, and that keeps them stupid.
So there are a lot of reasons why African has lower I.Q. and we need to understand much more about it before we can hope to help these people.
Christianity has been growing in Africa (sadly so has it's Canaanite opponent Islam) and the extinction of the pagan religions there, with their spirit worship and belief in witchcraft and other superstitions will help them more than any sociologists or psychologists or U.N. aid program. The civilizing nature of Christianity will provide political and economic stability and help these people do what Europe's Germanic tribes did two thousand years ago.
Africa could be a great continent if it could only be freed from the enthrallment of it's pagan and tribal past. If one takes Nostradamus seriously he predicted Africa would become the leader of the world near the end (he spoke of the "brodde nations" meaning dark or black). I don't take old nostrilities that seriously but who knows? I do know Africa is rich with minerals and has all the makings of the kind of power that Europe obtained. What it doesn't have is a social environment capable of moving past the neolithic.
But that won't always be forever.
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Sanity in France (for Once)
Timothy Birdnow
Big win for the party of Marine Le Pen in French municipal elections.
These are of course just local races. How the NR fares in the next national races is another thing. Still, it suggests the tide is turning in France, which has to be fed up with catering to Islamic thugs.
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Push Polling
Timothy Birdnow
Well duh! If you ask people if they LIKE higher gas prices what do you think they will say?
Poll: 66% of Americans disapprove of Trump on gas prices as they feel effects of Iran war
I suspect there was no context or nuance to this poll. They just talked about gas prices and asked the participants if they approve.
FTA:
The Yahoo/YouGov poll finds that 80% of Americans — including 71% of Republicans — already say gas prices are too high, and more than two thirds (67%) expect those prices to go up over the next few months. Forty-five percent of Americans think gas prices will go up "a lot.” Even Republicans are more likely to think that gas prices will go up (about 45%) than down (40%) in the months ahead.
And among Americans who think gas prices are going up, 60% say Trump "deserves the most blame” — far more than the number who say the same about Iran (13%) or oil companies (12%).
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In general, a majority of Americans have a negative view of the U.S. economy right now:
71% now say the economy is in fair or poor condition
75% now say they are paying more for the same goods and services than they were a few years ago
61% now say inflation is getting worse; just 16% say it’s getting better
58% now say the economy is getting worse; just 20% say it’s getting better
54% now say the country is either headed for a recession or already in one
Three weeks into the war, more Americans disapprove (55%) than approve (36%) of the way Trump is handling Iran. His approval rating on foreign policy in general has decreased from 39% approve, 51% disapprove in January to 35% approve, 56% disapprove today.
Trump’s overall approval rating — 38% approve, 59% disapprove — hasn’t changed significantly over the last month. But among Republicans, a gap seems to be forming between perceptions of Trump and perceptions of how he’s handling key aspects of his job. For example: while only 17% of Republicans express general disapproval of Trump’s performance as president, roughly twice as many disapprove of his handling of gas prices (33%) and the cost of living (33%)
And yet this stands at odds with recent polling showing an approval of the war at 43% among the American public. 33% disapprove, and the middle remains in a muddle as always.
So more people approve of the attack than not, and Yahoo/YouGov. can't report THAT so they backdoor it by narrowing their focus to gas prices. Nobody likes high gas prices, except maybe Democrats.
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Germany to Double Down on Immigration
Timothy Birdnow
The Germans are absolutely determined to erase their nation.
At least they wised up and aren't importing Middle Easterners or Islamic Africans, but that will be cold comfort when the nation becomes a Third World hellhole.
The Europeans bought into The Population Bomb, the seminal work of the recently deceased Paul Ehrlich, and they have taken steps to cut their population growth. But who does the work when you aren't having children? The European answer was to open the borders and take in Third World people. And not just take them in but keep them to encourage the immigration to keep coming. No guest worker program only.
One of the big problems in our modern day is automation takes jobs from people and there is no reason why Germany couldn't automate more. But they aren't because that is not in the interests of the ruling class, which wants to provide a hammock for voters so they continue to keep them in power, and automation requires people to actually do something. Germany, quasi socialist in her leanings, doesn't want that; they want sloth, because lazy people won't care about the mechanisms of running their country.
So answer me this; Germany is the fourth richest nation on Earth, but then India is the fifth so why do the Germans need them? For that matter why do the Indians, whom we regard as impoverished Third World types, need German jobs?
Because Germany simply discourages work while India encourages not just work but anything that helps attract capital.
It's a tale of two mindsets - Germany does not think like a nation on the rise but rather of one managing it's inevitable and absolute decline while India, after centuries of poverty and learning what NOT to do, is rising. They WANT to work, to earn, to be more than they are now. The Krauts are completely content living the easy life and going quietly into that good night.
Oh, this little nugget is interesting:
His first call was to the head of the local butchers' guild. Butchers all over Germany were having a particularly hard time. It was a sector in marked decline.
From 19,000 small, family-run businesses in 2002, there were fewer than 11,000 left by 2021. Employers were finding it almost impossible to recruit young people to take up an apprenticeship.
"The butchery trade is hard work," says the butchers' guild head, Joachim Lederer. "And for the last 25 years or so, young people have been going in other directions."
end
What is left unsaid is that the vast immigration of Muslims to Germany is as much responsible for this lack of butchers than anything; Muslims can only eat Halal foods, and a German butcher isn't acceptable. So what happens? They have to go looking for Hindus to do the work Muslims Just Won't Do.
It is exactly what happened to the Romans; they had it so good they stopped working, living off the charity of Caesar (and their fellow Roman's taxes) and they became useless while the Germans showed up and did the work for them. In the end there was not just a Roman culture but a German one occupying the same space - they had the very multiculturalism that has been the dream of the Western liberals for a generation now. In the end the more vigorous culture won out and Rome died.
Germany will die if they don't stop this, as will "Great" Britain (we should call it Lesser Britain now) and France and every other useless nation that voluntarily submitted to their own demise. Oh, and let's not forget Australia and Canada. The U.S. is doing better now but it's still not out of the woods. This was an intellectual and spiritual plague.
BTW I am mindful of the Old Testament when the Israelites were first coming into the Promised Land. God told them that if they failed to keep His statutes "the land will vomit you out, just as it vomited out the Canaanites". That is what is currently happening to the Western World; the land is vomiting everyone out because Christendom rejected Christ and accepted a dark, unholy god called Progressivism.
Eventually Germany will not be German in anything but name, and then it won't even be that. Spain was once Iberia. France was Gaul. Even the names change when the People change.
So c'est Lavie, Germany. You made your bed and now are going to find a stranger lying in it.
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More Climate Kookiness
Timothy Birdnow
Uh, there has been no net increase in planetary ice loss despite what these clowns are claiming.
So what was the Earth doing during non-ice age times, lie the Silurian or the Jurassic or early Cretaceous?
The claim here is melting ice from the poles is causing the Earth's rotation to slow, even though the overall mass of the Earth's hydrological system remains unchanged.
From the so-called article:
New research shows that rising sea levels caused by melting ice sheets are redistributing mass across the planet, reducing how fast Earth spins and gradually lengthening the day. Researchers found that days are currently increasing by about 1.33 milliseconds per century due to climate-related factors, a pace that stands out sharply in the planet’s recent geological history.
I can tell you that we don't know for sure about the Silurian, but during the Jurassic it was [lin=https://www.bing.com/ck/a?!&&p=1eb495325707f905fca518754a8d46b5824cc753357e93cacf2936d4c9b1da65JmltdHM9MTc3NDA1MTIwMA&ptn=3&ver=2&hsh=4&fclid=1c2f0888-4c6b-6ebb-2cce-1e464d3e6fbc&psq=how+long+ws+the+day+during+the+jurassic+compared+to+now&u=a1aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuY25uLmNvbS8yMDIwLzAzLzEzL3dvcmxkL2Vhcmx5LWVhcnRoLXNob3J0ZXItZGF5LXNjbi8]shorter than it is now (23.5 hours) and during the Cretaceous it was about the same. Both periods were noted for there being NO icecaps anywhere, no glaciers. The late Cretaceous was also ice free. BTW a wobble in the Earth's axial tilt was likely responsible for the cold snap in the early Cretaceous and the later warming period and NOT atmospheric carbon dioxide.
Here's more on the axial tilt business:
When audiences watched The Day After Tomorrow, they saw a dramatic Hollywood depiction of sudden climate chaos. The film greatly compresses the timeline, but the underlying idea that Earth’s climate can change abruptly is supported by scientific evidence. During the last Ice Age, for instance, temperatures in Greenland rose by as much as 16°C (about 29°F) within just a few decades. At the same time, enormous surges of icebergs repeatedly disrupted the North Atlantic Ocean. Scientists refer to these episodes as Dansgaard–Oeschger and Heinrich events. These rapid changes, known as millennial-scale climate events, show that the climate system can reorganize much faster than would be expected from slow orbital cycles alone.
end
So now we are enjoying a fairly rapid warming period and suddenly it's all Man's fault and we are all going to die in the Inferno.
The article continues:
Scientists have often connected these dramatic swings to the behavior of massive ice sheets. That link has created an important question. If large ice sheets played a central role, how could similar millennial-scale climate variability occur during warm greenhouse periods of Earth’s history when such ice sheets did not exist? Researchers have struggled with this puzzle for many years.
A new study now offers an explanation. An international team led by Professor Chengshan Wang at the China University of Geosciences (Beijing) has found evidence that Earth’s precession cycles, which describe the slow wobble of the planet’s rotational axis, can generate abrupt millennial-scale climate fluctuations even when the planet is largely ice-free.
end
Yet here we are being treated to the old, outdated idea that ice sheets change the precession of the Earth's axial tilt (and slows the planet's motion) because of a very modest planetary warming. Ri-ight.
While the precession cycles are 25,000 years there are sub cycles that happen every four to five thousand years. Five thousand years ago Earth was in a warm period - the Holocene Climate Optimum. Temps were 4.9*C warmer than today on average. And 13,000 years ago we enjoyed the Younger-Dryas, with temperatures plummeting.
Climate changes and sometimes quite rapidly. Younger dryas happened within decades, for instance.
The more we learn the less likely it is that carbon dioxide is going to burn us up.
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March 21, 2026
The Iranian Threat was Immanent
This from James Doogue:
Was Iran An Imminent Threat To Israel And To US Bases In The Region?
Iran began enriching uranium to 60% purity in April 2021, specifically on or around April 13–17, 2021. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed on April 17, 2021, that Iran had started producing uranium hexafluoride (UF₆) enriched up to 60% U-235 at the Natanz Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (above-ground section).
Important clarification: 60% enriched uranium is highly enriched uranium (HEU) and a major proliferation concern, but it is not fully "weapons-grade.”
Weapons-grade typically means ~90%+ U-235. At 60%, the material cannot directly make a practical nuclear explosive without further enrichment (though a crude device is theoretically possible). It is often called "near-weapons-grade” because the final step from 60% to 90% is technically quick and requires relatively little additional effort.
By mid-2025 (just before the June 2025 U.S./Israeli strikes in Operation Midnight Hammer), Iran’s stockpile had grown to approximately 440.9 kg of 60% enriched uranium — enough, if further processed to 90%, for material equivalent to roughly 9–10 nuclear weapons (using the IAEA’s "significant quantity” benchmark of ~25 kg of 90% material per weapon).
Much of this was stored in a tunnel complex at Isfahan that largely survived the strikes.
Post-strike assessments (IAEA and U.S. intelligence through early 2026) indicate the stockpile itself remained largely intact, though new enrichment has effectively stopped due to damage to centrifuges and facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan.
Why enrich to 60% if U.S./IAEA intelligence says there is no active nuclear weapons program?
Iranian officials have framed it as reversible and for "research” or civilian purposes (e.g., medical isotopes or research reactors).
However, the IAEA and independent experts (including SIPRI) state there is no credible civilian justification for producing and stockpiling hundreds of kilograms at 60% — Iran’s power reactors and medical isotope needs do not require it.
The consensus expert view is that it was primarily a political and strategic move:
It dramatically shortened Iran’s "breakout time” (the time to produce one bomb’s worth of weapons-grade material) to days or weeks if a political decision were ever made.
It sent a message: "We can go right up to the edge of weapons-grade without crossing it,” while staying technically consistent with the U.S. Intelligence Community’s long-standing assessment (since the 2007 NIE and reaffirmed through 2026) that Iran halted structured weaponization work in 2003 and has not restarted it.
This is why the same agencies can say "no active weapons program” while still viewing the 60% stockpile and enrichment as a serious proliferation risk.
Current ballistic missile arsenal: Iran possesses the largest stockpile in the Middle East, with medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) like the Shahab-3 variants, Emad, Ghadr, Khorramshahr, and Sejjil, reaching up to ~2,000–3,000 km (enough for regional targets like Israel, U.S. bases in the Middle East, and parts of Europe). Many of these are inherently nuclear-capable in design (payload capacity, re-entry vehicle shape, etc.), meaning they could theoretically deliver a nuclear warhead if Iran developed one.
Iran self-limits declared ranges to ~2,000 km, but experts note the technology allows extension.
ICBM pathway via SLVs: Iran's space program (e.g., Simorgh, Qased, Safir, and others) uses rocket technologies (multi-stage, guidance, propulsion) that are directly transferable to ICBMs (>5,500 km range to reach the U.S. homeland). U.S. intelligence has long flagged this dual-use nature.
U.S. intelligence assessments (2025–2026):The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) 2025 report (supporting the "Golden Dome" missile defense concept) assessed that Iran "has space launch vehicles it could use to develop a militarily-viable ICBM.
Did Iran's Major Stockpiles Of Missiles Put Israel And US Based In The Region At Grave Danger Of An Iranian Preemptive Strike?
Pre-Strike Iranian Arsenal (Early 2025–Early 2026 Estimates)
Before major U.S./Israeli strikes degraded the force:
Ballistic missiles: Roughly 2,000–3,000+ medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) capable of reaching Israel (e.g., Emad, Ghadr, Khorramshahr, Sejjil variants, ~1,300–3,000 km range), plus 6,000–8,000 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) for Gulf/U.S. bases.
Total often cited as over 3,000 ballistic missiles (U.S. CENTCOM 2022 baseline, updated IDF assessments pre-2025 war).
Launchers: Approximately 200–400 mobile transporter-erector-launchers (TELs), the critical bottleneck.
Additional assets: Hundreds to thousands of drones (Shahed-136 variants) and land-attack cruise missiles (e.g., Hoveyzeh).
This was the largest ballistic missile force in the Middle East, with many systems nuclear-capable in design.
Why Overwhelm Was Conceivable
Missile defenses are finite:
Israel’s layered system (Iron Dome for short-range, David’s Sling for medium, Arrow 2/3 for ballistic) has limited interceptors per battery and relies on early warning.
U.S. bases (Gulf region) use Patriot, THAAD, and Aegis systems, also with finite stocks.
A massive, coordinated barrage (hundreds per wave over hours/days) creates a "saturation” effect: too many incoming threats for radars and interceptors to handle simultaneously.
Real-world precedent:
Iran’s April 2024 (300 missiles/drones) and October 2024 (200) attacks had "leakers” that caused damage despite high interception rates (~86–99%).
In the June 2025 Twelve-Day War, initial Iranian salvos reached hundreds per day (e.g., one reported 504 on Day 1 of related operations), with some penetrations before strikes reduced capability.
Expert consensus (IDF, JINSA, CSIS-style analyses): A pre-emptive full-force Iranian attack of 500–1,000+ missiles in coordinated waves could exhaust interceptor stocks and allow dozens to hundreds of leakers.
Israeli officials privately acknowledged that Iran’s projected 5,000-missile arsenal by 2027 (or even the 2,000–3,000 pre-strike level) posed a saturation risk capable of overwhelming defenses.
Potential Scale of Damage
To Israel: Many MRBMs have poor accuracy (CEP 30–300+ meters), so hits would be scattered rather than precision strikes on military targets. Still, extensive civilian casualties and infrastructure damage (cities, power grids, airports) are realistic—potentially hundreds to low thousands dead/injured if 10–20% leakers hit populated areas, as seen in limited 2024/2025 barrages.
To U.S. bases (e.g., in Qatar, Bahrain, UAE, Iraq): SRBMs and cruise missiles could target airfields, ports, and command centers. Saturation could cause significant casualties, aircraft losses, and temporary base disruption, especially if U.S. interceptors were stretched across multiple sites.
Iran’s launchers limit simultaneous fire (not all 2,000–3,000 missiles at once), but waves over 24–48 hours were feasible with mobile TELs and pre-positioning.
In short: Without pre-emptive strikes, a full Iranian first-strike barrage was realistically capable of overwhelming segments of the defenses and inflicting extensive death and destruction—far beyond the limited impacts seen in 2024 attacks.
This is why U.S. and Israeli planners viewed Iran’s arsenal as an urgent threat requiring degradation.
Tim adds:
An atomic bomb will actually work at under 90% but it has to be over 80 (I can't remember the exact number but I think it was over 86%)and there is no reason to waste that enriched uranium (which does not work as well) when you can go to ninety. It is rather like sprinkling salt on your food after you cook it.
Previously Iran admitted to enriching up to 84%.
https://apnews.com/article/iran-politics-international-atomic-energy-agency-israel-government-benjamin-netanyahu-45b623742bb6bd4c7314de7df6c3f1e9
So what was Iran waiting for?
First, they wanted the means to deliver the weapon long range. A while ago I read Iran was experimenting with an implosion trigger - a far more complicated way to detonate a nuke than the old fashioned gun style trigger used by Little Boy and the Pakistanis and no doubt the Indians. Why would they need an implosion trigger? The bomb alone would be adequate for defensive purposes. It was because the implosion trigger would significantly decrease the weight of the device, making it far easier to deliver on a ballistic missile. The Iranians wanted to be able to threaten nations that were far away from them.
Also, the Iranians didn't want just one bomb, or they would have tested it and shown the world they had it. They wanted an arsenal.
As for testing, why should they? The U.S. uses computers to test nuclear weapons these days; no more air burst or underground explosions. We just model it. Iran no doubt has similar computer capabilities. Of course if they had detonated a test it would have exposed their program to the world. They didn't want that because it increased the danger. And if the test didn't go well then the U.S. and Israel would likely strike before they could fix the problem. So they had to buy time - everything they have done for some time now has been in that quest.
At any rate this was a fine piece of work James!
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
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Not De-Fang Fanged: Judge to Save Swalwell
Timothy Birdnow
The Democrats figured out the importance of control of judgeships long ago. And now they are using that control to it's maximum:
Yes, one of their pet judges will probably let Swalwell remain on the ballot for California governor despite his living outside of the state.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
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Post contains 67 words, total size 1 kb.
Not De-Fang Fanged: Judge to Save Swalwell
Timothy Birdnow
The Democrats figured out the importance of control of judgeships long ago. And now they are using that control to it's maximum:
Yes, one of their pet judges will probably let Swalwell remain on the ballot for California governor despite his living outside of the state.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
11:22 AM
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Post contains 67 words, total size 1 kb.
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