December 29, 2012

Byrd-Brained Study Claims West Antarctica Melting

Byrd Station temperature record from NASA-GISS (GCHN & SCAR, not homogenized).


Timothy Birdnow

Here we go again!
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/12/121223152408.htm

The Gang Green is using the records from a single temperature station to claim all of West Antarctica is melting due to sweltering heat. One station.

But that's not all - read this quote:

"Due to its location some 700 miles from the South Pole and near the center of the WAIS, Byrd Station is an important indicator of climate change throughout the region.

In the past, researchers haven't been able to make much use of the Byrd Station measurements because the data was incomplete; nearly one third of the temperature observations were missing for the time period of the study. Since its establishment in 1957, the station hasn't always been occupied. A year-round automated station was installed in 1980, but it has experienced frequent power outages, especially during the long polar night, when its solar panels can't recharge.

Bromwich and two of his graduate students, along with colleagues from NCAR and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, corrected the past Byrd temperature measurements and used corrected data from a computer atmospheric model and a numerical analysis method to fill in the missing observations.

Aside from offering a more complete picture of warming in West Antarctica, the study suggests that if this warming trend continues, melting will become more extensive in the region in the future, Bromwich said."

End excerpt.

So, what did the researchers do? They CORRECTED the data sets since there were large segments missing. In other words, they made it up.

Once again it goes back to computer models.

But wait, there's more!

According to David Middleton at Wattsupwiththat:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/12/27/antarctic-warming-courtesy-of-mr-fix-it/

"The manufactured "record reveals a linear increase in annual temperature between 1958 and 2010 by 2.4±1.2 °C.” That’s a 50% margin of error on the reconstruction that supposedly corrected the recording errors.

I haven’t purchased access to the paper (nor do I intend to); however, the freely available supplementary information includes a graph of their reconstructed temperature record for Byrd Station. It looks very similar to the NASA-GISS graph that doesn’t show any significant recent warming trend."

[...]

"The NASA-GISS data (GHCN & SCAR) for Byrd Station are in two segments: 1957-1975 and 1980-2012. The 1957-1975 series depicts a moderately significant (R² = 0.19) warming trend of about 1.0 °C per decade. The post-1980 series depicts a statistically insignificant (R² = 0.01) trend of 0.3 °C per decade.

Bromwich et al., 2012 get their 2.4 °C of warming from 1958-2010 (0.4 °C per decade) by stitching together the fragmented data sets. If I just combine the two NASA-GISS series, I get a trend of about 0.4 °C per decade…"

{...}

"Furthermore, the corrected temperature record of Bromwich et al., 2012 appears to actually depict more cooling since 1991 than the uncorrected data…"

End excerpt.

This is vaguely reminiscent of "Mike's Nature Trick" where Michael Mann spliced actual and proxy data into one set. Bromwich didn't do this, but took a period of warming PRIOR TO THE LARGE INCREASE IN CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS and attached them to a larger time frame, a time frame that currently shows no statistical warming.

And to claim surface melt is occuring is ridiculous, given that a sweltering summer temperature may be 20*.

Here is a list of temperatures for several Antarctic stations.
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/antarctica%20environment/climate_graph/vostok_south_pole_mcmurdo.htm

Also, the Boobs who did this study seem to think that increasing snowfall means more ice shelf collapses, which means higher sea levels. Uh, if the ice sheets are collapsing because they are growing, it means that the water vapor that would have ended up as sea ice is ending up on the continent, so in the end you come out even.

As I pointed out in my American Thinker article, there has actually been a decrease in small icebergs around Antarctica, a sure sign that the ice sheets are not calving so much. http://www.americanthinker.com/2012/12/another_global_warming_drive-by.html

Once again, models are being used to "correct" raw data to support a political viewpoint. And in this instance the data has been reduced to a single station. This is akin to your dentist recommending you have all your teeth removed because you have one cavity.

Nobody would accept such an extrapolation, and they should not do so now.

Climate science is rapidly becoming a laughing-stock.

Global Warming MUST increase as atmospheric CO2 increases, or the theory is wrong. We have seen no statistical warming planet-wide since 1995 and certainly nothing on record for Antarctica.

Figure 3. Composite of NASA-GISS segments show no warming since 1991.





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