This from Joe Bastardi

Hopefully the math is okay cause dealing with numbers this small a misplaced decimal changes alot

40% of the deaths are from .5% of the population, that means 60% are from 99.5%.
This means there are about 120k deaths out of population pool of 190 million. So of that 0.00063157894 have died
Covid EXCLUSIVE deaths are only 6% ( no pre existing conditions.) This means, that of that 99.5% 6% of .000063 yields a fatality rate of. 0.000003789473
Now lets look at new cases vs deaths using a 3 week lag. We will use Johns Hopkins and a. 7 day running total On April 5. The 7 day moving average was 31k with a. 20% positivity rate. 7 day moving average deaths was 2.2 k. Which meant about a. 15 to positive to death ration, much of it of course due to the blunders in the nursing homes. I never blamed Cuomo, he didn’t know at the time as we did not know what was going on for sure, So I cut him slack, But to say the way he is acting now is disgusting. In any case 15 to 1
What is the most recent. 3 week lag. 50k on Oct 8. Oct. 29 7 day running death total 828 That’s a 60 to 1 ratio or 4 times less be it healthy or unhealthy
.So lets predict what the total deaths will be in 3 weeks and see if I am right. If we know that had a 7 day running total of 1.3 million and the death rate for about 315 million then that contributor should be 1181.25 from that segment, But that is only 60% of the total since we know the other part of the population ( high risk) is contributing 40%. So we should see at current rates of tests vs positives vs known death rates, close to. 2k deaths a week in 3 weeks if this is truly a surge vs what has happened. If not, then it is still a surge since deaths have increased, but relative to previous times, be it because this has mutated, or we are getting better at stopping it then it is much less. But you have to go digging in to see such things. So the forecast is 2k a week in 3 weeks which by the way would bring us back to what we were seeing in April! BUT WE COULD NOT TEST AS MUCH. So it checks itself, if less, than we know we have rounded what is a huge bend and admittedly can still drive off the road
Now here is another factor, Churchill famously said socialism is shared misery, In those societies there is a ruling elite the masses must obey, In my gyms since May 8 NO COVID. None. Why? We are responsible as individuals, I have weighed as much as. 223 in my life. I used to compete at 175lbs ripped, You know what I weighed in at Oct 13 at nationals? 151. Stupid me cut into the lightweights when I would have won the middleweights. Oh well. But I know darn well the better care I take of myself, the lower my weight the less the stress on my system to tax my immune system, I can not help if other people wont cut weight or whatever or be responsible enough to not hang out in places this can be spread. But why should an individual busting their tail be forced to the rules of people who are not? Shared misery. Its a giant exercise in what is coming.
BTW summer did make a difference no question, If we turned off all air conditioning and let it get into the 80s and 90s in bars etc instead of keeping it at a prime Covid temperature of 68 in all these building, I venture to say the surge when we opened up would not have occurred, That would have been smart, but then again it would mean we would have to put up with what those that came before us had as a fact of life. Winter is coming, viruses love colder temps, immune systems have to work harder etc. So it is having an effect
This is my last Covid contribution, I am sick of it all, sorry for all that have gotten sick and sad for those that have succumbed. It also makes me sick to see people think they could have done better. Maybe they could have, but a lot of the biggest mouths screaming at the POTUS were ripping him for the other reason, Cuomo gave the infamous we are New Yorkers we can handle this in early March, Easy to sit in the stands Easy to say more testing now that we are testing close to 1.5 million people a day and the vaccine is coming at record speed, Always easier to say you could have done better.
God help us all.

Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at 09:22 AM | Comments (3) | Add Comment
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