June 29, 2021
This is the calculation. It's basic Arithmetic, nothing fancy, no hidden agenda, just something you can calculate by taking your socks and shoes off.
Atmospheric CO2 levels in 1850 (beginning of the Industrial Revolution): ~280ppm (parts per million atmospheric content).
Atmospheric CO2 level in 2021: ~410ppm.
410ppm minus 280ppm = 130ppm
÷ 171 years = 0.76ppm of which man is responsible for ~3% = ~0.02ppm.
That's every human on the planet and every industrial process adds ~0.02ppm to the atmosphere per year on average.
At that rate mankind's CO2 contribution to the atmosphere would take more than 20,000 years to double the CO2 content in the atmosphere which, the IPCC states, would cause around 2°C of temperature rise. That's ~0.0001°C increase per year for 20,000 years.
One hundred (100) generations of humanity from now (assuming ~ 25 years per generation) would experience warming of ~0.25°C more than we have today.
The Manua Loa CO2 observatory (and others) can distinguish seasonal
variations of atmospheric CO2, but does not distinguish between natural
and man made atmospheric CO2. Hardly surprising really, despite
mankind’s CO2 emissions being completely independent of seasonal
variation. It should reveal itself as a straight line, but is so
inconsequential
The global fall in output of man made CO2 over the last 16 months of the Covid-19 pandemic, estimated at ~14% (around 14% of ~0.02mmp CO2) does not register anywhere on the Manua Loa data.
Why am I not surprised?!
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
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