My immediate reaction to the Steve Bannon arrest was, this is political. My second take was, maybe no.

Disclaimer: I know Steve. He was a friend. Not a close friend, but a friend. I haven't talked to him in 3 or 4 years.

On July 13, Donald Trump unleashed a tirade on the build the wall people. He said it was done to make me look bad. That surprised me, as his base loves the wall. Now that makes sense.

Steve Bannon is really wealthy, so doing something like this doesn't make a lot of sense. And it is the Southern District of New York, which may be the most ethically challenged district in the Department of Justice.

This prosecution was probably, at the least reviewed by AG Bill Barr. If he gave his approval, that means there is something there. If he did not know about it, it was political.

Things to look for in the next few weeks. The discovery process will not be public but you can get an idea of the government's case, based on the motions that will be filed. And see if anyone pleads and flips. The federal criminal system is based on something called, "Acceptance of Responsibility. " Meaning they want you to plead guilty early and will reward you for doing that. They will punish someone who goes to trial and loses. The difference can be years or even a decade or longer in prison.

I don't know quite what to make of this yet. But we will certainly hear more about it in the next few weeks.

A word from Tim:

Bannon was arrested by postal inspectors, not the DOJ.

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