Statistics Norway, the government agency that produces official statistics for that country, released a report last month titled "To what extent are temperature levels changing due to greenhouse gas emissions?” The report concludes:
he results imply that the effect of man-made CO2 emissions does not appear to be sufficiently strong to cause systematic changes in the pattern of the temperature fluctuations. In other words, our analysis indicates that with the current level of knowledge, it seems impossible to determine how much of the temperature increase is due to emissions of CO2.
The report looks at the last 400,000+ years of Earth’s climate history:
The preceding four interglacial periods are seen at about 125,000, 280,000, 325,000 and 415,000 years before now, with much longer glacial periods in between. All four previous interglacial periods are seen to be warmer than the present. The typical length of a glacial period is about 100,000 years, while an interglacial period typically lasts for about 10-15,000 years. The present inter-glacial period has now lasted about 11,600 years.
So sometime relatively soon, the Earth is going to start getting really, really cold. This accompanying chart shows that history, based on ice cores:
Similarly, on the time scale of recent millennia, current temperatures are nothing unusual:
Similarly, on the time scale of recent millennia, current temperatures are nothing unusual:
Kobashi et al. (2011) have reconstructed Greenland surface snow temperature variability over the past 4,000 years (until 1993) at the GISP2 site (near the Summit of the Greenland ice sheet) with a new method that utilizes argon and nitrogen isotopic ratios from occluded air bubbles (Figure B4, Appendix B). These data indicate that warmer temperatures were the norm in the earlier part of the past 4,000 years, including century-long intervals nearly 1°C warmer than the decade (2001-2010). Therefore, it appears that the current decadal mean temperature in Greenland has not exceeded the envelope of natural variability over the past 4,000 years. Schönwiese (1995) has reconstructed temperatures from ice cores in Greenland for the last 11,000 years (Figure B5, Appendix B). These reconstructions show that during the past 10,000 years temperatures over long periods were higher than they are today. The warmest phase occurred 4,000 to 8,000 years ago and is known as the Holocene Climate Optimum or the Atlantic Period.
This chart, included in the report, shows the last 4,000 years, based on Greenland ice cores: