June 23, 2025
The Clock Ticks Down
Timothy Birdnow
They've gone and done it. Iran's Parliament has voted to block the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of 25% of all the world's oil and gas.
The Bab-el-Mandeb, the well named "Gate of Grief" or the "Gate of Tears" is the strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea where huge amounts of international cargo passes regularly and the Houthis tried to close that with little luck; Donald J. Trump obliterated them. I suspect he will do it again here.
But this will be harder insofar as the Strait of Hormuz is narrower, and the Iranians aren't just a splinter faction but the rulers of the whole eastern side of the strait and of the Gulf of Arabia.
I am no expert on naval tactics or naval capabilities,not by a long shot. But from what I've read the Iranians don't have much of a navy; they've got a lot of speedboats. They DO have between 19 and 27 submarines at their command. With Irsael currently in control of the skies those subs may be the only tool Iran has to close the strait.
According to Wikipedia, Iran has 7 frigates · 5 corvettes · 20 fast attack craft · 6 patrol boats · 31 amphibious ships · 17 auxiliary ships. I doubt they could stop the American navy if it comes to that. I also doubt we even need the navy as we could just bomb those ships and be done with them.
In bygone days there have been proposals to build a canal to bi-pass the Strait of Hormuz, crossing the United Arab Emirates and Oman. This would be difficult; the UAE is mountainous and the canal would require many locks and dams and getting the water through the system would require a lot of pumping. It would be vulnerable. But if Iran closes the Strait it may become an attractive option, not now but for the future. Problem is it has been estimated that such a canal would cost &200 billion dollars and it seems doubtful it would recoup the money needed to build and operate and maintain it. Such a canal would be a last resort. (Dubai did the study on this.)
Another option is to build pipelines from Kuwait to the Gulf of Oman, just outside of the Gulf of Arabia (Persian Gulf). This would be easier, but it would sttill be vulnerable and a big investment. STill, Kuwait and Oman and others have been exploring this option for some time now and while it will not be ready for a strait closure it certainly is something that not only could be done but should have been done a long time ago. Iran has always been a threat to everyone's livelihood in the region, as well as their physical security.
Of course none of this helps us in the current situation. If Iran closes the strait one quarter of our oil and gas supply goes off the market. We will see HUGE price spikes. We will also see Russia becoming suddenly flush with cash as Russian oil and gas become hot commodities.
And this will fairly decimate the Chinese economy, which draws it's energy supply almost exclusively from the Gulf, particlarly from Iran.
A closure of the strait will destroy China's already precarious economy. They are not going to allow it.
Russia too, while profiting from such a closure, may not sit idly by either. They have a strategic partnership with Iran and seek to control the flow of oil and gas to Europe by controlling the territory any pipeline must pass through. That was the reason they invaded Georgia, which was far too chummy with the U.S. for their comfort and which was offering safe territory to run pipelines, such as the Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline or the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the North-South Main Gas Pipeline (NSMP), which carry natural gas. These pipelines were intended to circumvent both Russia and Iran.
With the loss of Syria as a Middle Eastern anchor ally Russia is down to Iran, and if they fear regime change will occur and a pro-American government comes to power they would see this as an existential threat. They could well move to support the regime there, and will do so if China backs them. At a minimum Russia could send aircraft and naval aid and Spetsnast (special forces) to help the Iranian regime.
In other words we could have world war three.
Or not. Iran's economy would be utterly destroyed by this and how long they could keep the closure up is anyone's guess. My guess is, not long. And all it wil do will be to encourage everyone to "drill, baby, drill" so the world isn't hostage to the Mullahs.
And while China may be willing to go to war over Iranian oil they may be just as willing to find other sources (like Russia, who would be the biggest winner here).
Here is another issue, unrelated to oil but that could be tied in with any war fought. Iran controls many of the tributaries that feed the Tigris river, one of Iraq's main watersheds. There has been considerable rancour already over this as Iran, which hates the Sunni Iraqis by and large, has tried to dam up these tributaries and starve Iraq of water. This problem has lessened since pro-Iranian Shiite Muslims have had control of Iraq, but that could change in a major conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. While Shia outnumber Sunnis in Iraq it has generally been the Sunis who have held power. If that balance should shift Iran may well decide to keep the water out of the Tigris.The Tigris river ends her journey to the sea in Kuwait, and should Iran want to strangle the Kuwaiti oil fields they could do worse than shutting off the water to the desert nation. Kuwait is, after all, pretty much wholly dependent on the U.S. and the West for it's existence and their sale of oil is key to their prosperity. But cut off the water and the whole nation withers.
If this turns into a protracted war Iran may well decide to dry up Kuwait, and Iraq with it.
Then too we must ask what China will do vis-a-vis Taiwan. Now would be a golden opportunity to seize it. We know if that were Putin he would hop like a bunny into that country.
At any rate Iran is playing a game of chicken with Donald J. Trump and they may well lose bigly. Or they could plunge the whole world into war. This is the most dangerous situation we've seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis and perhaps even more-so. Sadly the Trump-derangement Democrats (and some Republicans) are STILL playing political games over this. They are not statesmen - just the governmental equivalent of flamers on the internet.
Thank GOD Kamala Harris lost in this last election! We need an adult in charge, not a Valley Girl.
One more thing; the U.S. has never really hardened her electronic systems. I imagine the military has but the civilian systems have not been. Iran has the bomb (as I've explained and why in past posts) and she has the missiles that could loft it high enough. Watch out for an EMP attack. An EMP would take out the electric grid and everything not hardened; cars, trucks, jeeps, trains, farm equipment, etc. An EMP attack on the U.S. could ultimately destroy us. Congress did a study back in 2008 which concluded that within one year we would have a fatality rate of 90%! It would be Road Warrior time. Granted, we've no doubt taken some steps to ameliorate this, but still the American power grid has not been hardened and while that mortality rate may be much smaller it still could be very high - and we may not have food, or running water, or light or heat or a/c. Our sick and weak will wind up dead.
I wrote about this BEFORE the Congressional report came out and was roundly mocked by people with government ties. But then tbe report came out and I was vindicated.
An EMP - Electromagnetic Pulse - occurs when an atomic weapon emits a high burst of gamma radiation. This strips the electrons off the air molecules, sending them cascading in a fast wave, a giant electromagnetic pulse. (This is called in physics the Compton Effect.) Fission bombs are actually better at this than fusion bombs, but fusion bombs are much stronger so generally a thermonuclear weapon beats a Little Boy style bomb in terms of an EMP,but it's not necessary. Get a fission bomb high enough in the atmosphere, somewhere over Nebraska, say, and you can take out the entire American electrical grid as well as blow out any electronics that aren't protected. All cars these days, for instance, have electronics that will blow. Only vehicles built before 1978, or that had been hardened, will still function. Commerce grinds to a halt. Farming grinds to a halt, Transportation of food and other goods drive to a halt. Water pumps stop. In other words, we are thrown back to 1800 without knowing how to live like 1800 and without the tools they had. We're SCREWED.
Yes, the government no doubt has been preparing but I suspect most of their preparations have been to protect THEMSELVES and their families. The rest of us are probably largely on our own - and if not will be put in FEMA camps and under martial law as we slowly starve. It wouldn't be pretty.
So if Iran has a working nuke and can get it up above the U.S. they can do this to us. Shoot; they wouldn't even need a rocket - just a high altitude balloon would do, provided the nuke was small enough (which is what the Iranians were working towards anyway.) According to NASA a very large high altitude balloon can carry up to 8,000 pounds.
So that is one option for the Iranians, and you can bet they have already thought of it. A lower nuclear detonation would do less damage, but they could still take out the power grid, even if our cars and trucks and whatnot were still working; the grid is too intertwined. We have just three grids in America - the East grid, the Western, and Texas. Take out East or West and the country is still in great peril. It would take years to recover.
But of course just shutting down oil shipping would lead to a massive economic upheaval.
I would recommend all Aviary readers gas up while you can and stockpile some food and water. You may need it.
They've gone and done it. Iran's Parliament has voted to block the Strait of Hormuz and the flow of 25% of all the world's oil and gas.
The Bab-el-Mandeb, the well named "Gate of Grief" or the "Gate of Tears" is the strait at the southern tip of the Red Sea where huge amounts of international cargo passes regularly and the Houthis tried to close that with little luck; Donald J. Trump obliterated them. I suspect he will do it again here.
But this will be harder insofar as the Strait of Hormuz is narrower, and the Iranians aren't just a splinter faction but the rulers of the whole eastern side of the strait and of the Gulf of Arabia.
I am no expert on naval tactics or naval capabilities,not by a long shot. But from what I've read the Iranians don't have much of a navy; they've got a lot of speedboats. They DO have between 19 and 27 submarines at their command. With Irsael currently in control of the skies those subs may be the only tool Iran has to close the strait.
According to Wikipedia, Iran has 7 frigates · 5 corvettes · 20 fast attack craft · 6 patrol boats · 31 amphibious ships · 17 auxiliary ships. I doubt they could stop the American navy if it comes to that. I also doubt we even need the navy as we could just bomb those ships and be done with them.
In bygone days there have been proposals to build a canal to bi-pass the Strait of Hormuz, crossing the United Arab Emirates and Oman. This would be difficult; the UAE is mountainous and the canal would require many locks and dams and getting the water through the system would require a lot of pumping. It would be vulnerable. But if Iran closes the Strait it may become an attractive option, not now but for the future. Problem is it has been estimated that such a canal would cost &200 billion dollars and it seems doubtful it would recoup the money needed to build and operate and maintain it. Such a canal would be a last resort. (Dubai did the study on this.)
Another option is to build pipelines from Kuwait to the Gulf of Oman, just outside of the Gulf of Arabia (Persian Gulf). This would be easier, but it would sttill be vulnerable and a big investment. STill, Kuwait and Oman and others have been exploring this option for some time now and while it will not be ready for a strait closure it certainly is something that not only could be done but should have been done a long time ago. Iran has always been a threat to everyone's livelihood in the region, as well as their physical security.
Of course none of this helps us in the current situation. If Iran closes the strait one quarter of our oil and gas supply goes off the market. We will see HUGE price spikes. We will also see Russia becoming suddenly flush with cash as Russian oil and gas become hot commodities.
And this will fairly decimate the Chinese economy, which draws it's energy supply almost exclusively from the Gulf, particlarly from Iran.
A closure of the strait will destroy China's already precarious economy. They are not going to allow it.
Russia too, while profiting from such a closure, may not sit idly by either. They have a strategic partnership with Iran and seek to control the flow of oil and gas to Europe by controlling the territory any pipeline must pass through. That was the reason they invaded Georgia, which was far too chummy with the U.S. for their comfort and which was offering safe territory to run pipelines, such as the Baku-Tbilisi Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline or the South Caucasus Pipeline (SCP) and the North-South Main Gas Pipeline (NSMP), which carry natural gas. These pipelines were intended to circumvent both Russia and Iran.
With the loss of Syria as a Middle Eastern anchor ally Russia is down to Iran, and if they fear regime change will occur and a pro-American government comes to power they would see this as an existential threat. They could well move to support the regime there, and will do so if China backs them. At a minimum Russia could send aircraft and naval aid and Spetsnast (special forces) to help the Iranian regime.
In other words we could have world war three.
Or not. Iran's economy would be utterly destroyed by this and how long they could keep the closure up is anyone's guess. My guess is, not long. And all it wil do will be to encourage everyone to "drill, baby, drill" so the world isn't hostage to the Mullahs.
And while China may be willing to go to war over Iranian oil they may be just as willing to find other sources (like Russia, who would be the biggest winner here).
Here is another issue, unrelated to oil but that could be tied in with any war fought. Iran controls many of the tributaries that feed the Tigris river, one of Iraq's main watersheds. There has been considerable rancour already over this as Iran, which hates the Sunni Iraqis by and large, has tried to dam up these tributaries and starve Iraq of water. This problem has lessened since pro-Iranian Shiite Muslims have had control of Iraq, but that could change in a major conflict over the Strait of Hormuz. While Shia outnumber Sunnis in Iraq it has generally been the Sunis who have held power. If that balance should shift Iran may well decide to keep the water out of the Tigris.The Tigris river ends her journey to the sea in Kuwait, and should Iran want to strangle the Kuwaiti oil fields they could do worse than shutting off the water to the desert nation. Kuwait is, after all, pretty much wholly dependent on the U.S. and the West for it's existence and their sale of oil is key to their prosperity. But cut off the water and the whole nation withers.
If this turns into a protracted war Iran may well decide to dry up Kuwait, and Iraq with it.
Then too we must ask what China will do vis-a-vis Taiwan. Now would be a golden opportunity to seize it. We know if that were Putin he would hop like a bunny into that country.
At any rate Iran is playing a game of chicken with Donald J. Trump and they may well lose bigly. Or they could plunge the whole world into war. This is the most dangerous situation we've seen since the Cuban Missile Crisis and perhaps even more-so. Sadly the Trump-derangement Democrats (and some Republicans) are STILL playing political games over this. They are not statesmen - just the governmental equivalent of flamers on the internet.
Thank GOD Kamala Harris lost in this last election! We need an adult in charge, not a Valley Girl.
One more thing; the U.S. has never really hardened her electronic systems. I imagine the military has but the civilian systems have not been. Iran has the bomb (as I've explained and why in past posts) and she has the missiles that could loft it high enough. Watch out for an EMP attack. An EMP would take out the electric grid and everything not hardened; cars, trucks, jeeps, trains, farm equipment, etc. An EMP attack on the U.S. could ultimately destroy us. Congress did a study back in 2008 which concluded that within one year we would have a fatality rate of 90%! It would be Road Warrior time. Granted, we've no doubt taken some steps to ameliorate this, but still the American power grid has not been hardened and while that mortality rate may be much smaller it still could be very high - and we may not have food, or running water, or light or heat or a/c. Our sick and weak will wind up dead.
I wrote about this BEFORE the Congressional report came out and was roundly mocked by people with government ties. But then tbe report came out and I was vindicated.
An EMP - Electromagnetic Pulse - occurs when an atomic weapon emits a high burst of gamma radiation. This strips the electrons off the air molecules, sending them cascading in a fast wave, a giant electromagnetic pulse. (This is called in physics the Compton Effect.) Fission bombs are actually better at this than fusion bombs, but fusion bombs are much stronger so generally a thermonuclear weapon beats a Little Boy style bomb in terms of an EMP,but it's not necessary. Get a fission bomb high enough in the atmosphere, somewhere over Nebraska, say, and you can take out the entire American electrical grid as well as blow out any electronics that aren't protected. All cars these days, for instance, have electronics that will blow. Only vehicles built before 1978, or that had been hardened, will still function. Commerce grinds to a halt. Farming grinds to a halt, Transportation of food and other goods drive to a halt. Water pumps stop. In other words, we are thrown back to 1800 without knowing how to live like 1800 and without the tools they had. We're SCREWED.
Yes, the government no doubt has been preparing but I suspect most of their preparations have been to protect THEMSELVES and their families. The rest of us are probably largely on our own - and if not will be put in FEMA camps and under martial law as we slowly starve. It wouldn't be pretty.
So if Iran has a working nuke and can get it up above the U.S. they can do this to us. Shoot; they wouldn't even need a rocket - just a high altitude balloon would do, provided the nuke was small enough (which is what the Iranians were working towards anyway.) According to NASA a very large high altitude balloon can carry up to 8,000 pounds.
So that is one option for the Iranians, and you can bet they have already thought of it. A lower nuclear detonation would do less damage, but they could still take out the power grid, even if our cars and trucks and whatnot were still working; the grid is too intertwined. We have just three grids in America - the East grid, the Western, and Texas. Take out East or West and the country is still in great peril. It would take years to recover.
But of course just shutting down oil shipping would lead to a massive economic upheaval.
I would recommend all Aviary readers gas up while you can and stockpile some food and water. You may need it.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at
09:56 AM
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1
I suspect Tim wrote this article BEFORE the cease-fire was established. Now that it has gone into effect I seriously doubt Iran will close the Straits of Hormuz, because it would be a classic example of cutting off its nose to spite its own face. If Iran truly intends to honor the cease-fire it means that cooler heads will prevail in Iran's government -- if indeed there are any, and we shall see if we can indeed wake up in a different world than the one we went to bed in a day or two ago.
It is a consummation greatly to be wished for all our sakes, and perhaps the lion may lie down with the lamb without the latter having to worry that it's to be supper.
It is a consummation greatly to be wished for all our sakes, and perhaps the lion may lie down with the lamb without the latter having to worry that it's to be supper.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at June 23, 2025 11:58 PM (X5D0l)
2
Indeed I did write this before the cease-fire. Let's hope Iran honors it (which they probably will not but who knows?)
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at June 24, 2025 06:21 AM (b/ph3)
3
I indeed expect that Iran will be tempted to slip one or two ballistic missiles off, saying "Oops" afterwards. And I'm sure Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu are well prepared for the eventuality.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at June 24, 2025 11:26 PM (lBLsY)
4
Looks like they already violated the terms. I can't keep this blog updated fast enough for events.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at June 25, 2025 07:05 AM (6lr42)
5
I was listening to Clay Travis and Buck Sextant and they pooh-poohed the fears of a widening war on the theory that Iran has no friends. That's nonsense; Iran clearly has friends or they would not be where they are in terms of world affairs. Russia has long had a strategic partnership with Iran over Asian oil and gas. They probably don't much like each-other and in the end will turn on one-another but "the enemy of my enemy is myfriend" and for now they are in bed together. As for China, they get almost all of their oil and gas from Iran. They would go to war to keep that supply line open.
Were it not for Russian and Chinese support we could have taken the Mullahs down a long time ago.
A Russian spokesman has openly stated the Kremlin plans on giving aid to Tehran. They probably can't spare much but will do what they can. And Iran has aided the Russians in the Ukrainian war, giving missiles and other arms to Putin's army.
This is a threshold moment; if the wrong decisions are made by anyone it could explode. How Sextant, a former CIA analyst, could fail to get that is beyond me. He's flat-out wrong.
Of course the Left was pushing the WWIII notion as a bludgeon to attack Trump but a stopped clock is right twice a day. This is a very dangerous situation. Of course had Trump done nothing it wouldbe an eve more dangerous situation. As of now Mr. Trump has handled this brilliantly.
Were it not for Russian and Chinese support we could have taken the Mullahs down a long time ago.
A Russian spokesman has openly stated the Kremlin plans on giving aid to Tehran. They probably can't spare much but will do what they can. And Iran has aided the Russians in the Ukrainian war, giving missiles and other arms to Putin's army.
This is a threshold moment; if the wrong decisions are made by anyone it could explode. How Sextant, a former CIA analyst, could fail to get that is beyond me. He's flat-out wrong.
Of course the Left was pushing the WWIII notion as a bludgeon to attack Trump but a stopped clock is right twice a day. This is a very dangerous situation. Of course had Trump done nothing it wouldbe an eve more dangerous situation. As of now Mr. Trump has handled this brilliantly.
Posted by: Timothy Birdnow at June 25, 2025 07:17 AM (6lr42)
6
I regret I was too busy today to listen to Buck Sexton and his partner Clay Travis. Whatever's going on in the Mideast, I doubt Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz because it will cause them as much if not more problems than it will cause the rest of the world, and I don't think they can stand the cost at this point.
As far as Russia being ready to bail them out, I'll believe it when I see it. Russia isn't exactly in great shape herself these days.
As far as Russia being ready to bail them out, I'll believe it when I see it. Russia isn't exactly in great shape herself these days.
Posted by: Dana Mathewson at June 26, 2025 12:18 AM (X5D0l)
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